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Reader Comments on
Chinese Rooster Year Outlook, Part 1


M.A. Nystrom, M.B.A.
Man on the street in (the Republic of) China
February 7, 2005


1. Thank You

Thanks to everyone who took the time to read my article last week, and especially those who emailed me with interesting questions and comments. They stimulate my brain and keep me on my toes (and then there are those that keep my head from getting too big, too!). If you wrote me an email and I didn't respond, please accept my apologies. I guarantee you that I read and pondered it, and if it was really interesting or had a really good question, then it will likely become fodder for future articles, so stay tuned and keep the email coming. I'll keep reading them, but if I responded to every one I wouldn't have time for anything else :).

If you haven't read the original article, take a gander at it over here: Chinese Rooster Year Outlook, Part 1.

Now, onto the comments.

2. The Comments

Michael,
As a review of the transition from the Dark Ages to the Age of Enlightenment I would like to share the following: during the Dark Ages, people's minds were ruled by fear; the authority of religion and the state reigned supreme. The Enlightenment grew upon beliefs in natural law and universal order.

Today we are bound by fear and a disregard for natural boundaries. Look at the fear generated from the constant threat of war and terrorism. Look at the unrestricted monetary policy released from the shackles of nature [gold] to allow for the creation of unlimited debt. For the propagandists and the alchemists to be exposed, the world must suffer through the transition from illusion to reality. 2005 will experience the beginnings of this painful awareness.
- H & J

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Michael,

There is an interesting book written by Strauss and Howe (S&H) with the title "The Fourth Turning, an American prophecy." www.fourthturning.com. In essence, it says that members of every 4th generation share the same mindset and societal conditions. Each series of 4 generational turnings, a saeculum, follow the same generational pattern: prophet, nomad, hero, artist. A turning occurs when conditions for one generation ends and the next begins. The 4th turning occurs when the artists (the silent generation, born during the last depression) are leaving power and entering elderhood, the prophets (baby boomers) are in adulthood, the nomads (gen Xers) are in young adulthood, and the heroes (millenials) are coming of age. A crisis event triggers a response which starts the next saeculum.

Their website gives a synopsis of their theories - a teaser for you to buy the book - and provides a forum for discussion. They published the book in 1995. At that time, they predicted that the stock market would peak in 2000. They also predicted that the next "crisis" event would occur around 2005. They then laid out some possible triggers including a terrorist bombing, a disease pandemic, and a financial meltdown.

We are now standing at another precipice similar to 1929 or 1860 or 1775. Each of these years had a major triggering event and an historically significant aftermath. We have many potential triggers in place around the world - US monetary deficits, terrorist events, national and religious fascism around the globe, peak oil, etc. One of these will snap, and the response will be to deal with it swiftly and decisively. Our president, a baby boomer, is well known for taking this type of action. The people of the world will be forced to deal with the repercussions for the next generation. Because of peak oil, nuclear and biological weapons, and other technological miracles, the next "generation" may last a century or more.

S&H say that before modern times, a generation lasted 25 years +/- which is about 2 Great years. Ancient Chinese may have noticed recurring similarities and created their calendar accordingly. Chinese society is much more structured than American society. Their children are expected to comply with the assigned characteristics of their birth year. As a result, the children assimilate those defining characteristics and pass on the expectations. American society is much more independent. The characteristics of our children are more influenced by peers who are in the same age group, rather than of the same birth year.

A crisis is just around the corner. Although this is the Chinese year of the Rooster, I believe it is merely a coincidence, not the cause of the impending meltdown. Look at a cycle of any of the Chinese signs. You'll find some years with significant events whereas 12 years before or later, nothing overly significant occurred.
- K

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How does Hitler's Reucitshag and Bush's 9/11 compare? On how the towers came down, look up "In Plane Site" on the net and make up your own mind.

- R.C.

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Dear Sir,
As for coincidences...they are a fact, not fiction. But one must prove it to him/herself. You must connect the dots to see the coincidences and have an open mind using logic.

As for this year and the markets, they are getting more and more manipulated. Greed is overtaking the planet and Mother Earth will correct this imbalance.

I expect the year of the Rooster to begin be as in the past....not too pretty.

R egards,
D

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Michael,

2005: Will it be a year of endings, new beginnings, or terrible events? Or none of the above?

My short answer is… Maybe all of the above. Why? Because endings are always the start of new beginnings, and… major endings always come with terrible events. Here are some specifics:

Peak oil: There are various forecasts for the peak of global oil production, the earliest being for 2005. The Association for the Study of Peak Oil (http://www.peakoil.net/), one of the most credible sources, forecasts a date that now stands at 2007. However, it is not the actual peak date that matters. The mere anticipation of this event has already unleashed a war in Iraq, and a host of related international uncertainties and instabilities. If the end of cheap oil is not the beginning of the some of the greatest changes and challenges that modern man may ever see, I don’t know what is.

The global economy: The modern global economy, for a myriad of selfish, shortsighted reasons, is now rapidly reaching a point of complete unsustainablility. Ronald R. Cooke, the Author of "Oil, Jihad, and Destiny." sums up the prospects for 2005 as follows:

"Let's evaluate the odds. Further deterioration in the dollar: 100%. But we don't know how far it will slide, or if it will recover. Higher inflation: 100%. But we don't know how high it will go before the end of 2005. Oil disruptions: 100%. But we don't know if there will be sufficient damage to cause oil shortages or how long these shortages will last. War and terrorism: 100%. But it is difficult to assess their impact on the economy. Debt crisis: 70%. If all goes well in 2005, there will be no debt crisis. But in order for this to happen, everything else has to work. No economic or political screw-ups to shake investor confidence."

You can find the source article from which this was taken at http://www.financialsense.com/ where you will also find a chorus of others saying just about the same thing in many different ways. In any case, 2005 is certainly a looming possibility for the beginning of the end of the global economy as we now know it. And, if so, it will also be the beginning of an entirely new kind of economic thinking as we are forced to re-invent the way we do trade.

Crop circles: Crop circles have been found in various places on the planet since the 1970’s and have been seriously studied and recorded since the early 1990’s. Some of the most impressive have occurred in the UK and may be viewed at http://www.temporarytemples.co.uk/. Crop circles were first thought to be hoaxes, and while there have been some that are, most are not. In fact, the size and complexity of those now appearing defy conventional explanation. With all that is implied by the beginnings and endings cited above, I cannot believe that the appearance of these strange patterns in farmers fields, every year like clock work, is not somehow connected with what is now happening on this planet. One way or another, this is the beginning of the most unpredictable and unprecedented of times, and I think that the crop circles are heralding this. Maybe 2005 will be that year that we find out what is behind the crop circles. And, if so, what an incredible beginning that would be!

-T.P, Canada

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Hi Michael,

How about a few of these?

- The tsunami (close enough to 2005)
- Great strides in space exploration (the 2 rovers on mars, the Saturn Cassini project)
- The death of Pope Paul II (no wishful thinking here)
- The death (not assassination) of George W. Bush. The ill-fated 20-year presidential death cycle, which alternates with assassinations and deaths, has not proven to be over. Deaths usually come later in the administration than assassination. Ditto no bad wishes.
- The death of either Bill or Hillary Clinton; most likely Bill, from heart disease. Alternately, we could lose another former president; Carter or Ford come to mind.
- The fall of the House of Saud (imminent)
- Peace between Israel and the Palestinians. Perhaps just 1st try and perhaps temporary, but the start of real progress
- Chaos in the Middle East. Looks like the Shi'ites have won the Iraqi elections, which will lead to unrest in largely-Shi'ite Iran. Bolstered by the Saudi fall, and the Palestinian issue
- The return to a silver monetary standard in Mexico (re Hugo Salinas). This could have HUGE ramifications for the US dollar, and could set the stage for the demise of fiat currencies all over the world. I believe this will happen anyway.
- Another nuclear bomb OR nuclear power meltdown possible; killing millions
- Prototypes of non-gasoline powered vehicles, made practical enough for further development, could really take off, just as hybrid vehicles have.
- Beginnings of a 3rd political party in the US, as the Democrats self-destruct and the Republicans become more like the "old" Democrats
- A pandemic of avian flu

All of these are possible, some more probable than others. You just never know!

Regards,
- D

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Michael:

Very interesting observations, although some of your 12 year "connections" were a bit tenuous (I'll give ya the one on John Lennon, even though he was shot in 1980--not '81....it was December, so I guess that's close enough to count).

After reading your article, my bones are telling me that we're looking a Terrible Events Rooster right in the eye. Bush and his Neocon cabal are prepping us spill blood in new and exciting places in order to bring Democracy to people suffering under "terrorist regimes"--but only if those people are also standing over something we need, like oil. Just ask the poor bastards in Rwanda and the Sudan--millions have died (and continue to die) under oppressive regimes in those places, but they barely register a blip on our Freedom Express radar. Sorry folks--your resources just aren't exploitable enough for us to give a damn about you.

It's not like we need to go overseas to see misery and oppression, anyway--we've got plenty to go around right here. Our government spoon-feeds us misinformation on everything from the number of people who are unemployed to the CPI index. The true economic condition of our country is carefully hidden from the masses--and if people start to catch on, they are quickly distracted with a pre-packaged "issue-du-jour": Gay Marriage, School Prayer, or some Flavor of the Month trial (Martha Stewart, Scott Peterson etc etc etc)...and when all else fails, just run an Amber Alert for a cute missing kid. Then, while the citizenry is hanging on every salacious word from the Michael Jackson trial, the government will take care of dismantling their Social Security benefits--it'll be a done deal before the majority of people can bat an eye!

It all makes you wonder...is this what the fall of Rome was like? Enjoy your Bread and Circus, 'cause the party's almost over, folks!

Kind regards,
C.S.

p.s.: Just out of curiosity, I clicked the hyperlink for the Dead Cat Bounce in your last article--that was hysterical!

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Mr. Nystrom,
At least 2 of your items are wrong. The abacas and paper invented by ancient kamites (Egyptians)
-K

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There is a great book entitled "1421 the Year China Discovered the World"
You really have to read this book . It outlines more of the amazing
inventions, and discoveries of the Chinese: Longitude, Latitude, for instance.
T hey actually discovered much of the world before C Columbus, T Cook and the
rest. And they traded and maintained good diplomatic relations with these countries
without the genocide so typical of the european colonisers.
- R.L.

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Dear Sir,

Since I vividly remembered all the publicity surrounding the initial operation of the Dresden Nuclear Power plant of Commonwealth Edison, I couldn't quite believe your assertion about Santa Susana. A quick internet search reveals that which plant was first all depends on how you look at it. E.g. I found this at: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/three/timeline/

1955
January -- The Atomic Energy Commission announces a cooperative program between the federal governement and the nuclear power industry to develop power plants.

July -- Arco, Idaho, with a population of 1,000, is the first U.S. town powered by nuclear energy. The town's energy was supplied by an experimental boiling-water reactor called the Borax III.

November -- An experimental breeder reactor about 50 miles west of Idaho Falls, Idaho, partially melts down during a test. The cause of the partial meltdown was attributed to operator error.

1957
July -- The Sodium Reactor Experiment at Santa Susana, California becomes the first civilian nuclear power unit to go on-line. The unit continued to generate power until 1966.

September -- President Eisenhower signs the Price-Anderson Act, which will protect private citizens, public utilities, and contractors from incurring financial hardship in the event of an accident at a nuclear power plant.

October -- The Windscale plutonium production reactor catches fire spreading approximately 20,000 curies of radioactive iodine across Great Britain and northern Europe.

December -- Shippingport, Pennsylvania is the site of the first full-scale nuclear power plant in the U.S. The plant was able to generate 60 megawatts of electricity after reaching full power 21 days after going on-line.

1959
October -- The first nuclear power plant in the U.S. to be built without any government funding -- the Dresden 1 Nuclear Power Station in Illinois -- achieves a self-sustaining nuclear reaction.

So, neither one of us was really correct about which was the first peaceful use (for power generation).

Best Regards,
G.D.

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Are you not a member of council on foreign relations or some such evil group? Ibelieve it was charles savoie or some person who pointed this out.
- I.H.

Editor's response: I am not a member of the CFR, nor any other evil groups, at least not that I am aware of!

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Hello,

This is a little long, but please stick with it and you will find that I completely agree that THE BULL IS DEAD!

I agree with the cycles thing, with one cycle being the (approximately 11 year) solar cycle.

Since history is made up not only of natural occurences, but also of human activites, I think that the history is, and the future will be, the result of the interaction of the solar cycle and the human development cycle.

I define the human development cycle in its most fundamental form--the human birth rate, and by when, in life, each human born reaches their maximum potential.

I define maximum human potential as those years during their lifetime during which each human born, earns and spends the most money. Economist Harry Dent first embraced this concept in the first 50 pages of his 1992 book, The Great Boom Ahead, and he referred to the phenomenum as the "Spending Wave." Dent's work determined that the statistically average human, spends the most in his 44th year of life, with spending being less both before, and after that age (unfortunately, Dent, in his old age, has gone batty, and now diminishes the effect of the spending wave).

The solar/human development cycle goes like this:

The solar cycle influences birth rates. Rates go up during increases in sunspot activity, and birthrates are retarded during low sunspot activity. There is a natural, physical cause for this and it is mediated by changes in the earth's magnetic field, caused by solar cycle variations in the sun's external magnetic field. These magnetic changes also affect other human behavior, such as fear and aggressiveness, but I'll share that only if you are interested.

Birthrates are also influenced by the economic conditions. Birthrates increase during good economic times and decrease during bad economic times.

Good economic times happen when there are many 44-year-olds in the population (lots of people in maximum development--in their peak spending years). Bad economic times happen when there are few 44-year-olds in the population (few people in maximum development--in their peak spending years).

So current birthrates are influenced by the then position in the solar cycle, and by the birthrates from 44 years earlier (which reflects the strength of the current economy). Our current economic conditions are the result of where the sun was in its cycle, and how many babies were born 44 years ago. This may sound a little off the wall, but its accuracy is stunning (and the math is dirt simple).

44 years ago (1961), the bottom dropped out of the birthrate in the U.S. Therefore, the number of people now in their maximum development (peak spending years) is declining precipitously from the peak which occurred in 1999 (44 years after 1955, the year of the highest birthrate of the baby boomers). Right in line with the theory, the current birthrate is declining precipitously also.

This does not bode well for our economy for the next 13 years (the length of time that our birthrates declined 44 earlier). Expect our economy to continuously contract in size (except for a solar-induced increase between 2010 and 2012) until 2018.

I don't know what this has to do with roosters, but it is an excellent explanation for where we are, and where we are headed.

As an aside, the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) averted a stock market crash (as predicted by the above theory) in January of this year by imposing a temporary rule, "the trade through rule," which severly damped the volatility of the markets.

Consider:

In January of 2004, $3 billion of new money entered the markets.

In January of 2005, investors pulled out $29 billion--AND MARKET PRICES STAYED ESSENTIALLY THE SAME (Dow around 10,500). This rule essentially makes all stocks part of the national money supply (and may explain why Greenspan has devalued the dollar).

I don't know how long the SEC can keep the lid on this pressure cooker, because demographic support of the markets is negative for the next 6 years. The stock exchanges are dead set against SEC extension of this "trade through rule," but the SEC hasn't decided when, or if, they will lift it.

So, you are absolutely correct when you state that THE BULL IS DEAD!

Perhaps a more accurate statement is that THE BULL IS IN AN S.E.C.-INDUCED COMA AND ON LIFE SUPPORT!
-R.V.

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Hi Michael,
I really liked the article especially in relating the Chinese calendar to economic cycles. Everything is cyclical as our ancestors in most ancient societes knew. Unfortunately these ancient wisdoms have been forgotten by most of us both in the so called Western and Eastern worlds.

But humanity will remember them again due to the great rebalancing which is due in the coming years.

I liked the way you conveyed the idea that rationality and logic are not mutually exclusive from coincidence, fate, destiny and spirituality. Too often we succumb to the simplistic false dialectic of either or, black or white, capitalism verse communism, bad hitler verses good Roosevelt, 'for or against us' theories. Rather than realising the that there two sides to every coin, there is good and bad in every person and every society and the interconnectedness of all things both rational and material and non-material and spiritual.

Anyway, keep up the good work. I have posted it on www.goldinvestments.org and www.gold.ie.

Mark O'Byrne
Gold & Silver Investments Limited

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3. Like I said, Thanks again.

Thank you for the input, and the stimulation. Whatever happens, always remember that the best things, the most important things in life are free.



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