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Commodities Update: Open Thread

Posted on August 28, 2006
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Comments on the article, Commodities Update: Break or Bounce Time, or other topics of relevance welcome below.

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68 Comments so far
  1. Michael Von Brah August 28, 2006 2:34 pm

    Long-term the dollar is dead and as such gold should rise.

  2. Rabach August 28, 2006 4:06 pm

    Let’s talk a little more about the H5N1 virus. The H1N1 virus was the original in the 1918 influenza outbreak. It just so happens that a fear years ago, I believe 2002, I had read an article on Yahoo news about them digging up bodies to isolate and collect the old 1918 virus.

    How about a theory, and this is just a theory so don’t attack my thoughts, on this whole bird flu problem. Think for a moment that it is true that the Fed’s are printing 2 trillion dollars. Perhaps it is true that the economy is already broken and being held up by the plummet protection team. Think real hard that during the tech boom and the now ending housing boom that all of our resources where be transported to other countries, mainly China. Consider that those two booms are to cover up the real economy and without them we would already be in a deep or great depression. Consider that the powers that be don’t have borders when it comes to world economic and financial power. With that in mind…

    The economy could be on a verge of a big collaspe. ‘They’ know it is going to happen and are putting it off. About the time when they can no longer hold it off suddenly the bird flu comes and ‘devastates’ the economy. It economical ruins the world. The after math is a mass consolidation of bankers, quite possibly a one-world currency. This currency isn’t paper or coins it is all plastic. This would allow them to fluctuate your spending power based on the country that you reside.

    To sum it up I see the bird flu as a purposeful thing created to fulfill the need of the NWO. Any thoughts on this?

    Rabach

  3. Dirk Davies August 28, 2006 5:24 pm

    Rabach,

    I think that is a very plausible scenario. I have a feeling that they’re doing all they can to stave off the depression, and they’re looking for a scapegoat. Of course they can never take responsibility.

    I believe they have a number of scenarios in place to take the blame, depending on the circumstances. Another likely scenario is that “terrorists” will be somehow responsible for the breakdown - either by bombing infrastructure or by escalating war in the Middle east.

    Whatever happens, the government will come out with a “response” to the disaster and lame excuses as to how such and such was never, ever forseen (like using airplanes as missiles). I just wonder how long the American people will continue to buy the lies.

  4. ronandreas August 28, 2006 5:49 pm

    excerpt:

    Chavez rules out return to cheap oil
    By Meirion Jones
    Producer, BBC Newsnight

    If you thought high oil prices were just a blip think again - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has ruled out any return to the era of cheap oil.

    Mr Chavez has spent some of the oil money on social projects
    In an interview with BBC Newsnight’s Greg Palast, Mr Chavez - who is due to host the Opec meeting on 1 June in Caracas - said he would ask the oil cartel to set $50 a barrel as the long term level.

    During the 1990s the price of oil had hovered around the $20 mark falling as low as $10 a barrel in early 1999.

    “We’re trying to find an equilibrium. The price of oil could remain at the low level of $50. That’s a fair price it’s not a high price,” Mr Chavez said.

    He will have added clout at this Opec meeting.

    Analysis by the US Department of Energy (DoE) - seen by Newsnight - shows that at $50 a barrel Venezuela - not Saudi Arabia - will have the biggest oil reserves in Opec.

    Venezuela has vast deposits of extra-heavy oil in the Orinoco. Traditionally these have not been counted because at $20 a barrel they were too expensive to exploit - but at $50 a barrel melting them into liquid petroleum becomes extremely profitable.

    The DoE report shows that at today’s prices Venezuela’s oil reserves are bigger than those of the entire Middle East - including Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, Iran and Iraq.

    In the future Venezuela won’t have any more oil - but that’s in the 22nd Century

    Hugo Chavez
    The US agency also identifies Canada as another future oil superpower.

    Venezuela’s deposits alone could extend the oil age for another 100 years.

    The DoE estimates that the Venezuelan government controls 1.3 trillion barrels of oil - more than the entire declared oil reserves of the rest of the planet.

    Mr Chavez told Newsnight that “Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world. In the future Venezuela won’t have any more oil - but that’s in the 22nd Century.”

    He will ask the Opec meeting in June to formally accept that Venezuela’s reserves are now bigger than Saudi Arabia’s.

  5. Mikat August 28, 2006 6:41 pm

    Ron - I don’t understand - what does the price of oil have to do with how much a country has.

    Also, what do you think the chances are that OPEC accepts Venezuela’s reserves as larger than Saudi Arabia’s? That would be quite a coup.

    I don’t believe peak oil is real - if it were, I think the price of oil would already be over $100.

    And to the first poster - yes, I agree, and I also agree that in the long term we’re all dead.

    Mikat

  6. the stranger August 28, 2006 6:41 pm

    Rabach, whether these things are inadvertent, deliberate, or virtual, I think they could well be contingency “causes” for global collapse; just as blaming collapse on Iran, for cutting off the Straight of Hormuz. The list is probably long and creepy.

    Oil hasn’t gone up yet, it’s still twenty bucks a barrel; the dollar’s been watered down. New rule: no more using dollar signs without “use by” dates in front of them.

    Prudhoe Bay is a big deal and the shoddy infrastructure is well documented. Of course, the timing did augment legislation that favoring BP. What isn’t mentioned much is that the 34” pipeline is being replaced with 18” pipe; and although the diameter reduction is about fifty percent the volume reduction is even greater. No, Prudhoe Bay has been in rapid decline for a few years but every storage tank is full – they know what’s coming. Look for the value of oil to increase.

    I think commodities are set to move significantly higher, very soon. And will continue a steep advance until collapse. Even after a collapse some commodities will remain in demand as long as there are people. I imagine it being regionally uneven – due to various structural breakdowns.

    And I don’t put a lot of faith in short term technical data. I think this legitimate new science is manipulated to as fine a precision as it is even currently understood. But Pretcher irritates me, so I’m biased.

    Corn and sugar don’t solve peak-oil. It doesn’t create energy; it’s about distilling it to a concentrated form so we can waste it in our current terminal infrastructure. Twenty-millions barrels of oils per day, from corn? Sure. How much of a fossil fuel economy would it take to pull that off? How much natural gas would be consumed for fertilizer alone? It boggles the mind. And you don’t boil tar sands with shrinking dollars, you do it with energy. ERoEI. But our society is built on “cheap” oil. Yeah, Oklahoma dust bowl in what, three years? Forget about it…

    Same with wind. Like many other Renewables, it is an accessory to a fossil fuel economy; an ACCESSORY. Two hundred foot steel towers and two ton three-phase generators are not made in factories run by Windpower. Photovoltaic panels and lead-acid batteries are not made in factories powered by solar-cell covered roofs. One hundred foot long blades are not delivered via hybrid Mac-trucks or Freightliners running on hydrogen. And if they ever are – the economics change dramatically. Actually, it disintegrates. Solid-steel-diesel-powered-cranes that can lift a 50-ton wind-turbine to the top of a 300’ tube tower are just part of the total fossil fuel infrastructure.

    And wind-turbine maintenance is preformed by crews operating from gas-powered pick up trucks getting to work driving cars and the tools and parts they use come from an just-in-time inventory international system lubricated by black gold and a terminal economic system. When you fully comprehend the dilemma called Peak-oil, it just might leave you in a cold sweat. That’s Peak-oil, not running out of oil.

    Only by comprehending “the energy factor” can we begin to envisage the “historical” value of a bushel of grain; commodities. The world is still running flat-out full throttle. So aside from the volatile ebb and flow, commodities are moving on up.

  7. ronandreas August 29, 2006 6:16 am

    Makat,
    The point of the BBC article is that the world is awash in heavy oil. Peak oil was a HOAX.Supply will eventually impact on pricing. China is building infrastructure for the new heavy oil era. For some reason our “free press” in the U.S. has seen fit to keep us unaware of these facts.
    Tricks and fear is all that is keeping oil high:

    BP’s Crude, Gasoline Trading Under U.S. Investigation (Update4)

    By Stephen Voss

    Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) — BP Plc, Europe’s second-largest oil company, is being investigated by U.S. authorities for possible manipulation of crude and gasoline markets, a further blow to a reputation that’s already suffering from spills in Alaska.

    The crude oil inquiry is led by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates futures markets, and the Justice Department is probing its gasoline trades, BP spokesman Robert Wine in London said. BP is “cooperating fully,” he said.

    BP and Chief Executive Officer John Browne already face civil and criminal investigations in the U.S., including grand juries that are examining an Alaskan oil spill and a 2005 Texas City refinery explosion that killed 15 people. The U.S. government in June alleged BP traders attempted to manipulate propane prices, a charge BP denied.

    “BP is known for being an extremely aggressive trader of crude so it’s an easy accusation to throw at them,” said Bruce Evers, an oil analyst at Investec Henderson Crosthwaite in London.

  8. RA August 29, 2006 8:48 am

    Ron - it makes perfect sense. Enron did it - why wouldn’t BP do it? I mean try to manipulate the markets to their own advantage. I thought there was something fishy when the Prudhoe Bay news came out. It just seemed timed too perfectly, right when oil prices were starting to come down.

    Nystrom makes a good point - the need for the separation of corporate & state powers, just like the separation of church and state.

  9. barter this August 29, 2006 3:56 pm

    Hello All,

    Forget “That Bubbling Crude”.

    HEMP…HEMP…I say. Cal-i-forn-i-a has the right IDEA.

    Hemp is the new GOLD.
    If only we could get rid of the pesky BP’s and EXXON’s of this world.
    Hemp, Henry Ford, and Nicoli Tesla, now that is something worth chewing the fat about…
    Barter

  10. Alphonse August 29, 2006 4:59 pm

    barter -

    I’m glad you brought this up! HEMP is the way! For any of you who don’t know the story:

    http://www.illuminati-news.com/marijuana-conspiracy.htm

    - Alphonse

  11. the stranger August 29, 2006 6:33 pm

    Good article; I feel better already…

  12. ronandreas August 30, 2006 7:58 am

    Gas may be headed back near $2
    Industry analyst sees prices between $2 and $2.50 by Thanksgiving.
    August 30 2006

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — The recent drop in prices at the pump could pick up steam, driving gasoline sharply lower in coming months.

    “I’d say $2 to $2.50,” said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service. “Once you get past Sept. 15, it’s really a downhill game.”
    Another analyst pointed to a 60-cent drop in wholesale and spot prices the last few weeks, noting consumers should see a similar drop in retail prices in the coming few weeks as the decline works its way through the market.

    The drop in wholesale and spot prices would translate to retail gasoline prices of around $2.50 to $2.60 a gallon, analysts said.

    “The levels that were in place were never justified to begin with,” said Mark Gilman, an analyst with The Benchmark Co. “This is a bit of a return to reality.”

  13. FeelingWeird August 30, 2006 11:34 am

    Completely Off Topic.

    I know there were some of you out there that were against the gold standard. Ie the principals of Ludwig Von Mises and the Austrian school. If you are out there please respond to this plea..

    I am currently going through a mid-life philisophical crisis. I just watched a video called The Money Masters(more info at moneymasters.com). This video has called into question everything I felt I knew about monetary basis and the gold standard. I need to have an off board conversation with you to debate this idea, and see if I can get more information…

    Respond to this post and maybe we can have an email conversation regarding this subject. Thanks in advance..

    Robert(aka feelingweird) NW Ohio

  14. the stranger August 30, 2006 6:57 pm

    The drop in pump-prices is as temporary as it is cyclical. Every container (worldwide) that can store oil, is. Supply has leveled off, demand is relentless; disruptions are inevitable.

    I think it more likely Prudhoe Bay was taken off line now, for necessary repairs, so that it will be back on line well before the November. It will likely build pressure while off line thus producing more, in the short term, when it comes back on; we may need the boost then. The oil spill may have been an opportunistic red herring (oddly enough).

    Oh, we’ll be returning to reality. Problem is, none of us has been there before.

  15. Administrator August 30, 2006 7:17 pm

    Hi Robert, aka Feeling Weird,

    I checked out the moneymasters.com site, and watched the little introductory movie. I thought it was interesting, and it made sense. But I didn’t see anything about the gold standard, or the monetary base (maybe I didn’t watch it for long enough (?), but it didn’t seem like it was going in that direction - it just seemed like conventional investing stuff). But I’m curious about what could cause a mid-life philisophical crisis about money. Maybe you could point us to the exact link, or summarize what the argument is.

    I don’t mind having the conversation on the board. I think it is relevant, and something everyone here will benefit from. Plus, more heads are better than one - we’re all bound to come up with some good ideas!

    Cheers,
    Michael

  16. weebel August 30, 2006 7:32 pm

    You were kidding, right? The first American Revolution “was fought in part to win the separation of church from state power” ???? Can you supply any quote from the 1700s that even remotely suggests any such thing?

  17. Dirk Davies August 30, 2006 7:48 pm

    Hey Weebel,

    Try the First Amendment to the Constitution, in the document commonly known as the Bill of Rights:

    Amendment I

    Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.

    1791

    - Dirk

    http://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/constitution.table.html#amendments

  18. the stranger August 30, 2006 8:00 pm

    I went over there too, but nothing really caught my eye at moneymaster. For what I can comprehend, the best of the Austrian school of thought has been brought forward by A. Fekete. But it’s just one ideological facet. Seems the inner working of our whole society is in play.

    Michael, many blog ago, you had some excellent thoughts on society in general. One of the terms that came up was socialism. Man, you got hammered on that by some. But I don’t think that was what you were getting at. Perhaps a more accurate term is commonwealth. Like bridges, or a courthouse. I see we’re selling roads now to private entities. This is bad news.

    Making a short story long… I bring this up because – especially when I think Austrian school economics, I’m just looking for formulas; clues. I’m also observing Bolivarian Revolution on democracy – or concepts such as Solaris. Economics seems to be the main glue for complex societies. But, I think I’d just as soon live near Barter and grow hemp.

  19. Cornhusker August 31, 2006 6:20 am

    Stranger,

    I agree. I envision a day when our local parks, water-works, police & fire dept’s are corporate owned and man, that’s a scary thought. I’m all for capitalism, but am truly frightened for this country, considering where corporate power and influence has been trending for the past 30 years, that trend of course accelerating at a faster rate for the past 6 years.

    Just remember guys, this is all temporary. Our existence on this floating rock is but a blink of an eye, eternally speaking.

  20. FeelingWeird August 31, 2006 7:54 am

    I will leave a link for you guys to watch. It’s about a 3 hour commitment. Even if in the end you don’t agree with his idea for a completely fiat 100% reserve system run not by the Federal Reserve but by the Treasury dept of the US. It at least is some incredible mind blowing history…

    Link

    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-4991544789166784731&q=the+money+masters&hl=en

    Hopefully the link works. Now to preface, I am a staunch Austrian Economics supporter. But the premise of this 3 hour video calls into question the ability of gold to work as a basis for money. It aludes to the fact that nearly 50% of all known gold reserves are now in the hands of either the IMF, or central banks(most notably the Bank of England), thereby making a gold standard a defacto vote for more control by the Reserve systems of the world.

    You notice the big time supporters of the Gold standard never view silver in the same manner? Austrians generally view silver and gold as a good basis. But the people whom are pushing this at the Federal level only see gold as the real answer..

    Please watch if you get a chance and let me know what you all think. It’s truly a mind blower(albiet very long and boring, if you find economics and history boring, if you like this sort of thing, it’s impossible to stop watching).

    Robert NW Ohio

  21. ronandreas August 31, 2006 7:58 am

    I used to live in a rural area on a “community” water system. We (twenty households) had deeded rights to a local spring of excellent quality. We all pitched in with maintenance and management. It was the lowest cost water service I have ever had. Does it make sense for corporations to monopolize vital utilities and charge what the market will bear. Only if you have been indoctrinated could you have such an opinion. Market dynamics are essential for some types of economic activity. The key word is some.

  22. Rich August 31, 2006 9:39 am

    Hey Rabach.

    You are not alone, check this out:

    Emerging Viruses - AIDS & Ebola
    by Dr. Leonard Horowitz

    This is the first in-depth exploration into the origins of HIV and Ebola. Claims that these “emerging viruses” naturally evolved and then jumped species from ape to man seem grossly unfounded in light of the compelling evidence assembled in this extraordinary text. Alternatively, the possibility that these bizarre germs were laboratory creations, accidentally or intentionally transmitted via tainted hepatitis and smallpox vaccines in the U.S. and Africa - as numerous authorities have alleged - is investigated herein. This book reviews the numerous viral vaccine studies conducted simultaneously in New York City and Central West Africa by a narrow network of virologists working for major military-medical contractors under the auspices of the National Cancer Institute (NCI) and the World Health Organization (WHO). Included is Dr. Robert Gallo, the notorious discoverer of the AIDS virus. The text presents bizarre and horrifying facts about the biological weapons race of the 1960s and early 1970’s when these researchers developed countless immune system ravaging viruses, and experimented with an assortment of antidote vaccines allegedly for “defense” and cancer prevention.

    The iatrogenic and genocidal theories of AIDS are meticulously explored within the social and political context of this stormy period of American military science. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) activities and foreign policy initiatives in Central Africa in response to the alleged threats posed by communism, black nationalism, and Third World populations are examined. The important roles played by political leaders including National Security Advisor Dr. Henry Kissinger, Department of Health, Education and Welfare secretaries Frank Carlucci, Jr. and Joseph Califano, presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, and economic notables Nelson and Laurence Rockerfeller are considered. The text hauntingly dissects the potential motives and administrative mechanisms underlying the prevalent belief that HIV and Ebola may have been deliberately deployed, and that the AIDS epidemic may be accomplishing what was desired.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    This work predates the Avian Flu issue, but your concept is the same. Horowitz also wrote “Death in the Air” that deals with this issue in great detail. The cover art is a fresco from the wall of the Denver International Airport of a Russian stormtrooper wearing a gas mask - - a weird image for anyone to put in a public transport facility!!

    Anyway, I thought you might like to investigate this body of work, Horowitz appears to have turned away from this incredibly disturbing investigation and is now in to alternative medicines, etc.

    Stranger, I resonate with your interpretations, especially on oil and the powers that be.

    ronndreas, feelingweird and others, its good to see you all back online!!

    Cheers Rich

  23. scags August 31, 2006 10:01 am

    A slowing economy is good for Gold not bad. It brings about one sure thing and that is lower tax revenue for the govt. In the face of ever increasing deficits = Much Higher Gold prices and a weaker dollar. Going back 5 years ALL currencies have lost ground on Gold.

  24. Rich August 31, 2006 11:27 am

    Speaking of Austrian Economics!

    “Why is Economic Depression Imminent?”

    Russell Rnadall has published some great new analysis on impending economic meltdown, definitely worth a read:

    http://austrianenginomics.com/WhyisEconomicDepressionImminentRevA.pdf

    Check it out.

    As for commodities, we’re going to the moon - slowly. This is not a dead cat bounce for gold, it will go higher than the previous high (of $730 ish) before the end of the year. I’ve had a feeling (voodoo kind of a feeling) that gold would break out for about the last 2-3 weeks. It hasn’t broken to the upside yet, but I do believe it will. The dollar will slide, oil will rebound later in the Fall and we’ll be off to the races again.

    There ain’t no more assets to inflate, the party is slowly winding down, hyperinflation looms large on the horizon, enjoy yourselves as much as you can between now and 2010ish, after that, it won’t be pretty.

    Expect wars and rumors of wars, pestilence, plagues and the wrath of God! And remember, fiddle while Rome burns! :)

    Cheers Rich

  25. Bono August 31, 2006 11:46 am

    Any commodity article has to start with the statement “The commodity markets are rigged by the central banking cartel and the US government but…”

    If that is not taken as fact then the rest of the “facts” are useless.

    Price, supply, demand, projections, prognostications…ALL USELESS IN A RIGGED MARKET!

    We won’t know what the TRUE value of any commodity is until the bankers let them trade freely…and a freely traded commodity market mean adios to fiat currency SO we will never know and SHOULD NOT ANALYZE THE MARKET WITHOUT STARTING FROM FACT #1:

    “THERE HASN’T BEEN A FREELY TRADED COMMODITY IN OVER 100 YEARS”

    This article is a joke.

    PS - Buy boat loads of silver if you want to save your financial freedom!

  26. the stranger August 31, 2006 8:32 pm

    Rich, the commodity markets are rigged by the central banking cartel and the US government but the “Expected Events…” paper (link inside your first pdf) had some good info too; quick read. Hey FW, I got through some of that. It is interesting. I plan to finish it; I’ll check back later.

  27. barter this August 31, 2006 8:40 pm

    The Bretton Woods System, Smithsonian Agreement, Operation Twist and Freeing Gold for International Settlement are all Plans of short sightedness. The hand of greed was not taken into account when developing these systems of fiat money on the back of gold futures.

    A new system needs to be developed with Greed put into the equation to level out in the beginning and taking a spiraling down turn for the Top 1% with out hurting the shrinking middle class and not touching the poor.

    Is this possible? Probley not…but…Greed has been the downfall for all of America since the first founders crossed the ocean 400 years ago. Greed was the main reason for the crossing in the first place. It has only gotten worse since the tax bracket network changed in the 80’s, just in time for the “trickle down theory” to start for the upper “hoi polloi” as the THREE STOOGES would say.

    The Three Stooges…Bush, Chaney and Rumsfield.

    Bush says, “This is a New Dictatorship, I’m Dick” and pointing at Chaney he says, “he is tator” all the while Rumsfield is saying Hial Tator.

    I hope this doesn’t me banned from the Woolsworth…

    Barter

  28. Rich September 1, 2006 6:09 am

    Bono/stranger, I agree. I’ve been a fan of GATA for that reason for years, it is apparent that commodities, the stock market, etc. are rigged.

    So now the housing bubble is deflating, after the dot.bomb bubble (Nasdaq) of the late 90’s to early 00’s, what next? The PTB need to inflate another asset class to prolong the wealth affect, or suffer a serious correction that could get out of control.

    Do they goose the DOW and send it to 20,000? They could, they own it! Do we get a depression or serious recession?

    What next. If you controlled the system, what would yo do?

    Cheers Rich

  29. the stranger September 1, 2006 4:26 pm

    Sorry Rich, I was just goofing off with that first line (bono ordered it); yours and GATA perspectives clearly overlap. I can think of no possible way we avoid a collapse at this time. So yeah, we keep chugging along anyway and the DOW and shoots to (nominal) $20,000. It wouldn’t surprise me, and of course it wouldn’t surprise most Americans. I think it’s going to get down right surreal.

    I expected gold and silver to get nailed today. Actually, I’m sure they did – but silver just shook it off; something’s about to give. I’ve read, and sources vary, 25 to 40% of new jobs since 2001 were tied to the housing boom/bubble. I think commodities are going to go nuts at the same time more people are losing jobs.

    Perhaps TPTB don’t even navigate anymore, just reactionary steering. I think the system is uncontrollable. Actually, I don’t think it a system anymore, just a process that’s transitioning to out-of-control.

  30. larry September 1, 2006 9:50 pm

    i am a middle aged guy..time constraints,obligations and the pre-internet era, all combined, left me as an oblivious cattle/man..i was a tool of the “elite”.my wages were given back to the machine they made..i am a serf..i take my devalueing monies and give it right back to corporate-government alliances…i am a a conscript to their world…i am an endentured servant who must live long enough to be economically free…i must live long enough only to pay back the interest and principle of my existence, they allowed me..they owned me..i thought it was a good life..i was a serf..they are smarter than me..they enslaved me in my american dream..it was an illusion…i despise the elitest mentality that awakes every morning to plot ways that appear wholsom but are by design implimented to provide THEM a perpetual annuity from cattle/men…they need me more than i need them! they could not endure the everyman life style..they are weak and live in fear,,,,they compensate for this fear by bracing them selves with mine and everyone elses monies…they will never feel safe till they have all our monies…theirs’ is a deep disease and we have the cure..we give them this power,they fear us…they fear us because they could not live as we must…they seek to control that which they fear and they fear us the most! yes i am not pleased to learn that all these systems and institutions have contempt for the average guy and seek to dominate him..but,i have learned this harsh, harsh truth..i see it everywhere…all the lies..all the lies

  31. matcha September 2, 2006 9:35 am

    I think Stranger had a point with supression of
    commodities, esp oil, until November. NatGas is
    almost certainly supressed. The big question I have
    are will this dip in commodities (politically induced
    sept-oct) be the big one, or will the comming deflation
    take gold/silver/copper down further? Come on, this is
    what we all need to figure out here!!

    -Matt

  32. the stranger September 2, 2006 5:06 pm

    The question of the century is “will there be inflation or deflation?” and that answer affects all other decisions. It’s relevant to a discussion on commodities. I have a word doc I cut & paste Quotes (some are paragraphs) I find as I graze the internet. Some I keep going back too - not only because of the brilliance, but they tend to differ. Pardon me while I burn up some vertical internet space; eight quotes…

    "There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion."  Ludwig von Mises

    "Every traditional investment is waiting for the stock market to crumble in order to follow suit. Stocks, commodities, precious metals, real estate, the credit supply, the economy and even most bonds are holding up because optimism has sustained its peak level for an unprecedented length of time, producing a second peak to the investment mania, with the main focus this time on real estate. A break in the euphoria is long overdue. With optimism having persisted for so long, the market has squandered its option of a slow reversal. The decline following top tick will surely be dramatic and lead to a crash." Robert Prechter

    "The turn down in US and World business activity is NOT gold bearish, but rather fundamentally gold bullish. I heard this in the 70s and it was totally wrong.
    I am hearing it again in 2006 and nothing has changed." Jim Sinclair

    "As the price of oil rises, and it will rise, it’s going to put pressure on consumers who depend on oil and gas for transportation and heating. As a result, they will be forced to cut back on their spending. On top of that, home prices will probably (at best) level off, and they may decline. With short rates rising, the end of home refinancing has arrived, and this too will mean less money in the hands of consumers. The reduction in consumer spending will cause the Bernanke Fed to fear the onset of deflation. The Fed’s deflation worries will set the Fed on it’s usual course - offset any deflationary trends with an even greater amounts of liquidity. The Fed will open the liquidity spigots, and this will impact on the dollar. Result, higher gold prices." Richard Russell

    "Because the dollar is the reserve currency of the world, hyperinflating the dollar will be fundamentally different in two ways from all hyperinflations in history. On the one hand, there are tens of trillions of dollar-denominated debt and hundreds of trillions of dollar-denominated derivatives. Given that the ratio of currency to debts and derivatives is tiny, the coming hyperinflation must be necessarily of epic proportions. On the other hand, central banks around the world will fight tooth and nail to support the dollar, so that world financial system does not collapse and that their reserves do not evaporate into the nothingness. Many central banks will choose willy-nilly to support the dollar by inflating their own currencies. Thus, these two powerful forces will drive the dollar in opposite directions. Its inevitable demise may be swift and sudden, or it may be protracted and painful." Krassimir Petrov

    The real problem with my positions is that the more successful my investment strategy the more messed up our world. This is an unfortunate fact of modern life and trying to beat real inflation. Pure logic drives me to invest in commodities that are the proverbial canary in a gold mine! The more they rise the closer to extinction we all are! Rich, from Bull, not bull.

    The indication for the imminent collapse of the international monetary system will be the “last contango in Washington”: the fall of the silver basis. It will be followed by the fall of the gold basis. These events will indicate that the irredeemable dollar has entered its death throes — regardless what the inflation numbers say. Woe to all fiat currencies whose principal backing is the irredeemable dollar. Controlling their quantity can and will do nothing to save them. Dr. Antal E. Fekete

    "Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities. Truth isn’t." - Mark Twain

    Well, I think there will be deflation & inflation; alternating, pulsating, and simultaneous. I have trouble answering whether the dollar will fall (see Krassimir Petrov above) compared to other currencies; but its value? …that’s like a feather dropped from a plane – it’s going down, eventually.

    As long as the system keeps chugging along, silver should do well. Just look at nickel! If the economy tanks, silver should well. Silver is a precious metal. Silver is a commodity. Silver is money. Silver has been seriously manipulated and subsequently depleted for decades.

    I am not a trader. If I tried to trade sugar right now, I would probably lose my ass. But I do have quart-jars full of sugar. That may in itself be a waste of time, but it honestly gives you an indication of my actions, as well as my thoughts. And I refuse to follow this string-of-words with the proverbial disclaimer “this is not investment advice” because you must seek the advice of those you trust (resonate with) and console yourself for a final decision. So, with apologies to Richard Russell, “Inflate, then die”

    the stranger

  33. larry September 2, 2006 10:55 pm

    i enjoy this site and dialoge..i wish to enter the precious metals market soon but hesitate…i almost went from my hussman strategic growth fund,managed by a bright bright man and i will never loose..however,the mandate of the fund prevents large metals positions…so,like others here…the TIMING thing is a real killer,i almost actually switched to a precious metal fund the day gold dumped in june,,literally at that bottom,but i froze from anxiety…now it appears to have been the bottom before the next major run?…but the politicos must hold down gold till post-election to prove inflation is bagged…i also would value some more discussion…the train may be taking off here at 630ish ;yes/no? ideas?

  34. matcha September 3, 2006 8:59 am

    Stanger,

    I think you are right about the pumping with inflation/deflation.
    They will pump the last hundredth of wealth out of the system
    before it is all over I warrent.

    My difficulty is in understanding the cycles of this pumping.
    Slowly, I’m getting some small feeling for it, kind of like living
    on the beach, and watching the tides… But still, it would be
    great to understand the econophysics, political econ behind the
    ebb and flow.

    Thanks for the quotes!

    Best, Matt

  35. larry September 3, 2006 12:31 pm

    who here has some view regarding an entry into precious metals..will it rise to 690,above current resistance?then pull back as a fake out to hit 500.then the real advance begins?it seems to pat and predictable that the next big rally is at the historically seasonal strong period,this time!

  36. bp September 3, 2006 4:59 pm

    feeling weird (akaRobert) - i finally got a chance to view that video (the money masters)- i expected three hours, but only got 2, maybe my version was truncated, heh - i thought it had some interesting info, and i would agree that a gold standard is too limiting - too easily cornered/controlled.

    Therefore, i would have to agree with bono that silver offers the best security in the coming turmoil, though, in the longer run it seems a local script would be the way to go - something that could expand as needed and facilitate trade/exchange without interest charges. Let the money serve the needs of the population, not the interests of the bankers. Hm, perhaps we could do without corporations and financial intruments, too.

    It seems that the term military/industrial complex needs to be modified to include central bankers who finance both sides of the war.

    interesting times we live in - but, as Paul Valery said: The wind rises, one must try to live. (And as Rich says — Cheers!)

  37. Roger September 4, 2006 4:12 am

    Over the last few days (starting around the end of August), silver prices have broken out from a base of around $12 with open interest has dropping significantly. Since commercials have tradionally aligned themselves on the short side against the two remaining groups, hedge funds and the retail speculators on the long side, the only possible conclusion is that we are witnessing an unprecedented (in silver trading, anyway)short covering rally. Since ‘commercials and silver bullion traders are, practically speaking, one in the same, and consequently commercials know what’s gonig on in the physical silver markets, this short covering rally we are witnessing may be the mother of all buy signals in both paper and physical silver.

  38. Rich September 4, 2006 8:58 am

    Hey stranger (huh, that has a ring to it!).

    Thanks for putting me in such exceptional company, I am not worthy by half.

    As for investing timing, etc. for getting in to precious metals (and my attempt to answer other questions on this thread), for me there is no time like the present, and I’ve been that way since 2001.

    Silver has always had more potential upside than gold, theoretically. Silver peaked at around $50 in the 80’s, gold went to the low $800’s. Silver is at $13 and gold is at $624 - so from an historical perspective silver has shown far more upside action than gold ever has. If it ever returns to its historical high then investors are in for a fun ride.

    I have invested, out of laziness, in SIL. I have a bunch of gold holding, mutual funds and some explorers. I used to trade the exploration companies all of the time, but I’m too busy with my day job and family life anymore to deal with the burden of buying and selling consistently. So I mainly own mutual funds like Gabelli and Tocqueville, they have done very well over the years.

    The good news on investing in the exploration juniors, mainly Canadian companies that I played with (choose companies in western countries that have good management, they must have management with a track record), is that if you own a portfolio of 10 or 20 carefully chosen juniors, when the market moves you can get a jump of 200-400% in a day on a single stock. But you kind of have to run your portfolio like a mini-hedge fund.

    I used to own a bunch of explorers, some metal mutual funds and then a bunch of short funds, mutual funds that short the DOW and Nasdaq - like USPIX, BEARX and other bear funds whose acronyms I can’t remember right now.

    However, my theory was wrong and the markets never got trashed, so over the years I waited for the markets to tank (which logic dictated they should - I was naive back then and thought that some free market dynamics may still play out) - it didn’t and I ate my shorts, so to speak.

    Now I believe that the PTB may goose the markets again and shoot the DOW over 15 to 20,000 - or something obscene. No one wants the party to end, for the PTB it would rock their world. Half of the US now is incredibly suspicious of the ruling elite, the lies have simply been too big. To assuage the anger and fears of the mass of unbelievers the PTB will have to keep the music playing. I can’t see any way for the dance to continue without an asset class inflating to create the “wealth affect (illusion).” It can’t be real estate, it’s getting over priced as it is and interest rates have to come up or at least stall where they are at for a while.

    I can’t think of anything else that has the mass specualtive pull of either the stock markets or housing, of course we could go to tulips or Pokemon cards, but they may be a little limiting! So, the market has to zoom to give folks the opium they need to remain deluded long enough to get through the election cycle.

    One other alternative does exist, war with Iran, which would probably need to be preceeded by a major terrorist attack on us (or US, if you are outside Fortress America), something like an Iranian-made (or acquired from Pakistan) dirty bomb exploded in a major US city. That sounds too incredibly horrible to be considered, but when the likes of Warren Buffet have assured us that it will happen in our lifetimes, then its hard to ignore.

    For me the bottom line is that we have perhaps 2 to 4 years of relative stability left before the proverbial simply must hit the fan. Intuition-based trend analysis (IBTA - I just made that up - like the Mogambo Guru!) dictates to me that the end game is just around the corner.

    What is absolutely fascinating when you analyze current human activity, the demise of the dollar, the emergence of the NWO, the grasping for global domination - and its attendant opposition from the “non-aligned” - is that God has joined in the cacophany and we are also experiencing environmental cosmological and ecological perturbations on an unprecedented scale.

    We are reaching “Peak Humanity” - but unlike Peak Oil Theory, we don’t die-off at 2% per year after the peak, we will probably implode and diminish our numbers on a much grander scale over a very short period.

    Dang, that all sounds so gloomy! Is it me!? I dunno!

    Cheers Rich

  39. Rich September 4, 2006 10:52 am

    And then to really mess up my day the Crocodile Hunter is killed by a stingray. I loved that guy! I’m totally bummed. How come politicians, lawyers and bankers don’t get bumped off in freak natural accidents!!??

    Crikey!

    May Steve Irwin rest in peace with the wildlife, in the afterlife.

    Cheers Rich

  40. barter this September 4, 2006 11:10 am

    I don’t know but when..(since bush seems go get all that he sets his mind to)…. we unite with canada and mexico and the Ameuro takes the place of the dollar, we would have to dafault on our stock, bonds, loans and interest????
    I have a question…What if America defaulted on all outstanding loans to the rest of the world? What would happen to America in general and in futures?

    In theory how would that affect the world economy?

    Besides devalueing life in general for 90% of America, by being less valuable in site of the rest of the world and the poor who do not buy in the futures market, the level of poor would rise with the influx of of mexicans seeking to expand mexico rather than to americanize.
    Am I right or wrong?

    How would this Unionizing of the 3 countries benefit America.
    I would like to get my brain around this and you guys are some really intellegent folks. One or more of you should have the answer to this.

    Barter

  41. larry September 4, 2006 11:50 am

    barter/i am answering/ discusing your americo currency inquiry because i have heard of it and it concerns the heck out of me..i am not one of the brainiacs here,but i am trying to comprehend these things…to my simple thinking,when a public company destroys its’ balance sheet it can go bankrupt and reorganize its’ debt and try again to pay down the obligations from the earnings stream..or,the said company may be bought out by a capital rich aquirer and then they can re-engineer the insolvency issues of that which they took over..to me,the americo addresses the u.s. currency melt down using both of the above methods….that is,the currency is allowed to fail but is simultaneuosly restructured,similiar to a banruptcy re-organization and the bad debt is merged,that is,aquired by two other agencies,being canada and mexico.in effect,a hybrid solution to a caput currency.reorganize it and have it reaquired by others.BUT,my real concern is about the rules and laws we have in the u.s.to me,when the new currency is enacted,suddenly the old ways are severed,instantly.now a situation arises where 300 years of rule of law are erased and replaced by policy wonk proceedure and beauracratic policy…we have no vote or say in the new agendas…we cease to be connected to our entire past and law system…we have no say and no rights..it will be like reasoning with a collection agency when you are wrongly placed on their collection program.prove you are not guity of “it”.we will be run over by all manner of corrupt out of control and unexpected ,unelected,nonresponsive powers…i am scarred

  42. Rich September 4, 2006 12:01 pm

    Manifest Kleptocracy!

    That is our fate. Funnily enough it started with the myth of Manifest Destiny, a despicable notion. Now we are emerging in to the sunlight of the reality of that delusion!

    If the American people, and indeed the people of the world, fail to take what is there’s, then the Kleptocracy will complete its manifestation.

    There is still some hope, but it is receeding almost daily and almost visibly.

    When the Kleptocracy is fully realized the rule of law will be history, the Western traditions that have defined what is good and right within our specific culture will be lost - but hopefully not forever.

    Unfortunately the opium of the masses is commensurate with the size of the lies necessary to Manifest Kleptocracy! So we are talking about weening society, going through massive cold turkey, and dealing with the truth in all of its objective ugliness.

    Look what we’ve allowed ourselves to become!

    Inherent in our nature is the drive for the right outcome, I think it must be genetically encoded in us, like a salmon returning to its native spawning ground. We will return to our vision and desire for a truly just environment, but we’ve taken the wrong tributary at this point and need to go back to go forward.

    Cheers Rich

    PS. How about this for a bumper sticker: War Profiteers for Global Domination! :)

  43. Rich September 4, 2006 12:19 pm

    The top 10 Kleptocracies of all time, I wonder how many of them we put in to play?

    1. former Indonesian President Suharto ($15 billion – $35 billion)
    2. former Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos ($5 billion – $10 billion)
    3. former Zairian President Mobutu Sese Seko ($5 billion)
    4. former Nigerian President Sani Abacha ($2 billion – $5 billion)
    5. former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milošević ($1 billion)
    6. former Haitian President Jean-Claude Duvalier ($300 million – $800 million)
    7. former Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori ($600 million)
    8. former Ukrainian Prime Minister Pavlo Lazarenko ($114 million – $200 million)
    9. former Nicaraguan President Arnoldo Alemán ($100 million)
    10. former Philippine President Joseph Estrada ($78 million – $80 million)

    This is according to Wikipedia.

    I think it avoids some controverial listings!

    Cheers Rich

  44. the stranger September 4, 2006 1:26 pm

    Gloomy? Gloomy is an understatement; doesn’t make it wrong though. Rich, you’ve always written with real detail on the markets. That’s got to help some of those that drop in to BNB. When I went to grab the quotes, yours was there, I couldn’t resist. In the last three years of reading-the-world, I’ve come to the exactly same conclusions (e.g. I own some Canadian juniors).

    We don’t know the future – it’s not knowable; silver could become worthless. And hawkeye Kevin is right - after a crash, the last thing on our minds may be stocks, gold, etc. But we’ve not crashed yet, so this conversation is important. Especially if someone reads it and thinks, “maybe I should liquidate my 401k and take full responsibility for money”

    When you study these economic systems, the federal reserve, chart after chart, etc. a few lights start flashing. Silver could become worthless, stranger things have happened; but a lot data suggests the opposite. Manipulation, depletion, historical and technological uses, silver to oil ratio, silver to gold ratio, on and on and on and on. You come to the conclusion, “I’m placing at least one bet here, and if it blows by luck before collapse, I can buy a ranch in Australia.” Helps maintain the delusion of control.

    I left out a quote that belongs with the ones above…

    "There is no international monetary system; there is an international monetary process and that process has the characteristics of an explosion. All processes have a beginning, a middle and an end. Will the explosive process continue for five more years? We know that the moment that the explosive expansion ends, the contraction of credit will be immediate and violent: after the explosion comes the implosion of credit." Hugo Salinas Price

    I had not heard of the North American Union until Barter brought it up here. Since then I’ve found many an article. George Ure follows it closely at Urban Survival. Larry’s thought make sense – but don’t ask how it is good for America… how is it good for Corporations?

    War Profiteers for Global Domination; new caption for old glory? I’ll take Don’t Tread On Me any day.

  45. bp September 5, 2006 12:01 pm

    Michael, another interesting post - I think a lot of those posting on this site are zeroing in on this perspective. The troubling part on that link site: Sir, no sir is that now with an all-volunteer army there seems to be less thinking, more kneejerk reaction in the enlisted ranks, they even have a number of skinheads getting in the services now and then there are the mercenaries (don’t even get me started on them), though the junior officers seem to be starting to be critical. It use to be - what is good for GM, is good for the US…now it seems to be: what is good for Lockheed Martin(any military supplier really) is good for the US. Ugly trend. As for what to expect…I figure a scaling up of war for the elections, gotta stay in power, and fear is what is a big tool for the PTB - question is - how to scale up the war - my guess is some CIA op to silently strike a match without the finger pointing to the US… after the elections and what to do about the economy - they’ll worry about that when it gets here.

    Seems this situation is one of constantly raising the ante, trying to bluff everyone into folding.

  46. the stranger September 5, 2006 5:27 pm

    Thanks for the post Hey, Hey, LBJ. Good link too. I recently read “the duty of a patriot is to defend his country against its government.” Seems the term patriot has been subverted with its definition replaced by nationalism, pure and simple.

    Good point BP, the all-volunteer Armed Services is a notable difference. But I wonder if that distinction isn’t being erased? It’s getting less voluntary every day. Humans are goal oriented. How many have set their clocks (expectations) at three years or some other date, only to have deferred? …repeatedly, indefinitely! And how demoralizing to have the highly paid mercenaries flanking you as well (private security forces, excuse me).

    Congress doesn’t even have the balls to declare a war - their most important duty, aside from avoiding war I guess. It’s even more insulting that the sales pitch is “democracy” while systematically dismantling democracy here at home. They may as well use the real reasons (resources, the dollar, profits, insanity) even though it’s unconstitutional. I’m afraid to guess what percentage even knows the difference?

    Support the Troops, Bring em’ Home

  47. turk September 5, 2006 5:49 pm

    Man, one thing is for certain, conspiracy theories are alive and well! I’m not saying I disagree, as a matter of fact I believe the evidence for many of these theories has come to the light of day and is giving more creedence to them than ever before. It does seem for certain that we, the American people, have not had control over our politicians for some time, probably decades. Our founding fathers are rolling over in their graves with the fact that American destiny has become so intertwined and linked to that of Great britain and Israel. The very thing they warned against. Enemies are easy to deal with, its our friends who are a drag on us and entangle us in their problems. True in close personal friendships and true of countries. If all of the die hard nascar replublicans do not now see that Bush and company are merely extensions of the globalists who have hijacked us, then they are truly ‘head in the sand’ people. Anyone remember when GW campaigned from his Texas governors place about how he wanted to get us out of places in the world where we did not belong, delinking us from foreign entanglements? His entire legacy is one of only deepening our entanglements in the world at every turn.

  48. the stranger September 5, 2006 7:27 pm

    Yeah, what a switch – Republicans for the biggest government that ever existed. What an extremely horrible job working in the Cheney Administration. It’s my contention that Bush is just a figurehead in the purest sense. I think he’s disintegrating.

    What’s with the Canadian Dollar? Is it being inflated faster than the US Dollar? …it’s over my head. Every day I wonder how much money is created just to support the markets. Must be massive. If the DOW heads for 20,000 - that certainly counts as a helicopter drop. How much would be siphoned off, the bleed-rate would increase I’m sure. A lot of it going into gold and silver no doubt.

    The November thing – that’s certainly just an (TPTB) objective; anything could interrupt it. Or a boom for the next few months? Fries my brain thing about it.

  49. Rich September 6, 2006 5:29 am

    That’s an interesting interview with Prechter than Michael just posted. I was following along nicely until the last sentence when he says “Gold bugs say that the Fed can inflate the economy out of any difficulty. I guess we’ll soon find out.” From my experience gold bugs are the most contrarian and most pessimistic crowd, especially about the Feds ability to bale out the economy in the long run.

    Most bugs think gold is THE hedge against a Fed that CAN’T save the world, and the gold is the ultimate store of value because the USD will become a worthless piece of TP by the time the “money monopolists” are done with it.

    Otherwise, Prechter makes a good point. No asset class is really appreciating on any meaningful level at this point, except Military Industrial Complex stocks (as a sub-class).

    So, back to theorizing. I contend we inflate the stock market or crash now. I don’t think the PTB is ready to crash, so they will attempt one more massive manipulation, what have they got to lose? If they don’t extend the wealth effect at this point, and soon, then the Second Great Depression will arrive shortly. I’ve been amazed, and I know Michael has over the years as well, at the longevity of the financial system. We both thought the game would be up after the markets crashed in 2000-2001. Neither of us saw the real estate bubble coming.

    Now I’ve seen two back to back bubbles I guess I’ve become convinced that the PTB (money monopolists) are capable of going at least one more round, and the only thing I can see that has the ability to move the kinds of credit that has a chance of satisfying the beast (financial system) is the stock market.

    So, inflate the market or die.

    Cheers Rich

  50. turk September 6, 2006 7:34 pm

    I still think we will head into a period of deflation, before a period of hyperinflation will kick in. I haven’t firmly jumped on board this particular theory until about three weeks ago, when the fed paused. If the fed is successful in performing this balancing act and the globalist people are right in their theory that we are seeing a period in history where the global economy will be a shock absorber for our economy, ringing in soft landings for ever and ever, amen, then I think we will all have to go back to school. If the fed rains money and thinks it will keep us afloat, they may be surprised this time around in the changing psychology of the American consumer. We may not agree to keep up the consumer economy no matter how easy it is to get pocket money.

  51. the stranger September 6, 2006 8:30 pm

    The fed is no more in control of this nightmare than an arsonist controls a fire. The bond market is on life support. Derivatives are in the hundreds of trillions with inadequate or even nonexistent means of settlement. Housing was the common man’s last refuge against a fiat system he didn’t comprehend, etcetera. The fed must create, even invent money like there’s no…

    What have they got to lose? That’s it in a nut shell; nothing; everything. Doing the right thing now, is the wrong thing. It’s just too far gone. I think what held it up so long was simply the inertia of civilization. But entropy will not be mocked. I didn’t think it would make it this far either – and we’re not alone. Some really smart individuals have split the states completely.

    At this point, I think an investment strategy (stragedy) should be more of a survival plan. A decent stake in mining stocks, for example, could make you a multi-millionaire; but for what. A modest stake could pay off debt and finance realistic alternate plans. Don’t be greedy (timing), stay on top of everything. After a crash, people that didn’t understand it before certainly won’t understand it when it hits. The realization will likely come in waves; days, weeks, months, and years. What I mean is, if we stay here (we may have too) there may be time to maneuver. I guess – how the hell would I know?

    Prechter’s a trip. I read one of his books and your comments Rich, sum up my impression; brilliance mixed with WTF?

  52. the stranger September 6, 2006 9:26 pm

    The Gold Report: Do you recommend that investors buy bullion or stocks in precious metals companies? Or both?

    Bob Prechter: Right now I think gold is in a bear market, so I’m not recommending either.

    The Gold Report: How much gold and silver should investors have in their portfolios right now?

    Bob Prechter: I always want to have a ready mechanism to buy gold if I think it’s going to enter or extend a bull market and also to own some gold as a hedge against draconian measures by the money monopolists. In extreme monetary times, when one needs a real asset that is not an IOU and is not easily manipulated, gold is the top choice.  …gold bugs say that the Fed can inflate the economy out of any difficulty. I guess we’ll soon find out.

    Gold Bugs: Great, if a bull market “extends” or if “draconian measures” appear, just deploy your “mechanism” and acquire gold at that choice moment. Typical Prechter, evading the question. Astute observation that Gold is in a Bear Market, but what currency I wonder. Best part of all – Extra! Extra! Gold Bugs Worship Fed. And btw - they’re Elliott Waves, not Prechter Pulses.

  53. Rich September 7, 2006 5:45 am

    Hey stranger, will you marry me, you understand me so much better than my lovely wife!!

    Cheers Rich

  54. turk September 7, 2006 6:01 am

    The one major influencing and somewhat unfigurable factor in all of this will be war. If war is a racket, and it is that and much more, then as in most of history it is war that will be the new bubble.

  55. Rich September 7, 2006 10:30 am

    Hey Turk.

    Don’t forget the Avian Flu or some other pandemic. I think the bottom line is a bubble of manufactured chaos - just like all the good ole Bond movies. The PTB are like Specter or Octopussy, etc. Creating Chaos in order to rule the world.

    Cheers Rich

  56. larry September 7, 2006 7:49 pm

    hey folks…i am still waiting to switch from a diversified mutual fund to a precious metals fund…it is not about greed…i truely believe the expected “seasonal year end gold rally” could disapoint big time…the federalies must squash inflation fears to have their fed. claim victory in the economy.only then do republicans have a shot at holding power…the new secretary of treasury is a Wall Street type…if it can be done he will get gold to crack!…ideas,projections,debate…this is decision time folks…rant for gard saks,rant

  57. larry September 7, 2006 8:46 pm

    question?/…..does it follow that fiat currency creation must cause a bid and price increase in precious metals…or,can all factors which determine WHEN the gold is bid up be ascertained in a knowable way?…come on folks this is crunch time..to buy or not to buy that IS the question?

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  59. ronandreas September 9, 2006 9:30 am

    These market comments were compiled using Bloomberg and Reuters financial news:

    The U.S. Commerce Department released preliminary July construction spending data. Seasonally adjusted spending declined 1.2 percent month over month, the largest decline since August 2002. On a year-over-year basis, spending rose 5.1 percent, the lowest increase since April 2003.

    The Canadian rig count fell back this week to 500 active rigs, compared to last week’s level of 530 rigs and below last year’s level of 524. Utilization rates fell to 62 percent from 65 percent last week, which is above historical levels of about 56 percent, but still below last year’s level of 71 percent.

    Purchasing’s August prices were unchanged for most steel products versus July, although scrap declined significantly. Purchasing believes that sheet spot prices will likely remain unchanged in September, but may decline by as much as $50/ton for Q4/06 deliveries based on high inventory levels.

    Late last week, the strike at Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine, was settled. Escondida is now on track to be at full production this week. Workers ended the 25-day strike after approving a new contract with mine managers.

    China is producing at least 60 percent more raw alumina this year, with officials estimating that at least 5 million tons of capacity would come on stream in the coming six months. A smelter official predicts that prices would likely fall below $200 in coming months. Overseas suppliers are now offering spot alumina at about $320 a ton to Chinese ports, down from $500 in early July.

    The Chinese yuan could appreciate as Premier Wen Jiabao said the currency could become more flexible and reforms will allow the market to set its value.
    ——————————————-

    The Federal government will attempt to diminish it’s debt trap by devaluation relative to other currencies. This will be consistent with global deflation of asset prices and negative real U.S. interest rates.
    Could the wage inflation #s be political?

  60. the stranger September 9, 2006 10:34 am

    Internet back up… Now you’ve done it Rich, my wife threw me out. I’m sitting outside with a laptop, my John Prine CDs, and a bag of dimes.

  61. ronandreas September 9, 2006 10:45 am

    “Total Non-farm Compensation Per Hour was up 7.7% y-o-y during the second quarter, a notable increase compared to Q1 2006’s 6.4%”

    Can anyone corroborate these figures? Larry this might answer your question. Any personel managers out there? I wonder just what power American workers have found to extract these hourly pay raises. We know that the U.S. workforce has been de-skilled and that newly created jobs are primarily filled by illegal immigrants.

  62. the stranger September 9, 2006 2:47 pm

    Larry, the expected “seasonal year end gold rally” could, in fact, disappoint big time. The system is broken. No; it does NOT follow that fiat currency creation MUST cause a bid and price increase in precious metals, but there are certainly historical precedents for it. George Soros said “find a trend whose premise wrong and bet against it.”

    The fed can’t squash inflation, the fed MUST now increase it; rapidly, any way possible. You meant the federalies must squash price-rising fears to claim victory… (good luck) … only then do Republicans have a shot at holding power. This may be wrong. They’re not Republicans and they’ve given no indication they intend to cede power. Work that into an investment plan.

  63. brussels real estate September 10, 2006 6:59 am

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  64. barter this September 10, 2006 10:06 am

    My husband paints and does custom work to motorcycles. He is down to just him working.
    1. His is a luxury item to get a motorcycle custom painted, etc…
    2.He can’t find anyone interested in working in the business.
    3.He refuses to hire illigal alians.

    There are lots of high dollar homes for sale around here and the farmers are complaining about lack of rainfall so crops are dying in the fields from lack of water.

    We are all waiting on the BRAC folks to show up and save the economy…LOL

    So, you tell me what has the Republician Party done for us lately?

    Given CEO’s the pot at the end of the rainbow. Sold us out to China and given us away to Mexico.

    I am SICK of the same ol’ Politics.

    Inflate us out this while raising min.wages.

    Raise taxes,get rid of career politions and high priced lobbists.

    I’m through b**ching…for now anyway…LOL

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