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Top 10 Specific Reader Predictions for 2007

Posted on December 22, 2006
Filed Under Uncategorized |

Okay friends - in response to Rich’s request (#50 on the previous thread), here is a top 10 specific list of predictions to address. I think we’ll all benefit from a diversity of views on these. Answer as many or as few as you’d like:

1. Will the U.S. Dollar Crash in 2007?
2. What will the Fed do with interest rates in 2007: Net raise, lower or net neutral?
3. Will inflation or deflation be the overriding concern in 2007?
4. How would you invest $100,000 in ‘07 to achieve the best gains?
5. Has housing hit bottom? If not, how far will it fall?
6. Will Earth be rocked by more strange and record breaking “earth changes” in 2007?
7. Will the U.S. and/or Israel attack Iran?
8. Will the US experience another terrorist attack on a scale greater than 9/11?
9. What is the best way to survive a second great depression?
10. What is the worst news that will come out of 2007?
10. What is the best news that will come out of 2007?

Anything else you’d like to address. I’ll tally the results and post them in the new year!

Michael

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25 Comments so far
  1. Cornhusker December 22, 2006 9:04 pm

    1. No
    2. Raise, 100 basis points or more
    3. inflation
    4. QQQQ (ETF)
    5. Yes
    6. No
    7. Yes
    8. No
    9. Hoard U.S. greenbacks
    10. Cure for AIDS

  2. ESPMan December 22, 2006 9:43 pm

    1.no 2.neutral unless motivated to lower by a catastrophic event, not motivated by economics. 3. Inflation first deflation second 4. precious metals and oil 5. It is sliding along the bottom, not hitting it 6.there will be at least one catastrophic hurricane in 07 and much shore errosion from all storms and the change in atlantic current temperatures. 7. no but there will be an incident in the gulf causing tensions to escalate 8. No, the time is not right, the terror powers have unlimited resources and unlimited time, 07 is not the time, they will wait us out to see how the year unfolds in washington dc 9. Learn how to garden, and preserve your crop. stay stocked up on fresh water, ride a bike to work if you have a job. Stash away some gold and silver. get along with your neighbors and form cooperatives to help eachother survive. 10 worst news from 07: our government still can’t get anything done on behalf of the American people to make our lives safer and better, short of a new american revolution 10 best from 07: all is not lost

  3. the stranger December 22, 2006 10:20 pm

    1. It will lose significant value against gold, among other things
    2.
    Raise
    3.
    Monetary Inflation, Housing Deflation
    4.
    ECU SILVER MINING INC / $3.27
    5.
    No, but I don’t know how far it will fall or how long it will take.
    6.
    Yes
    7.
    Yes
    8.
    Don’t know
    9.
    Get out of paper, out of debt, into real things including rural land
    10a. Peak-oil
    10b. Earth still spinning

  4. Agric December 23, 2006 4:44 am

    1. No $ decline will be approx 5% in 2007.
    2. Lower, Fed rate 4.5% at yearend 2007.
    3. Stagflation, LOL = an inflationary recession.
    4. Commodity futures, esp. oil and wheat; gold, silver.
    5. Has housing hit bottom? No, will fall approx 15% in 2007 and further 10% in 2008.
    6. Earth changes? Odds are that hurricane season will be approx as bad as 2005. Global warming continues to accelerate.
    7. Will the U.S. and/or Israel attack Iran? No.
    8. Will the US experience another terrorist attack on a scale greater than 9/11? 30% probability.
    9. Be able to feed (by growing food) your family and electrically power and heat / cool your home without the grid.
    10. What is the worst news that will come out of 2007? GW still in power. Ghawar is dying - fast!
    10. What is the best news that will come out of 2007? US administration at last starts doing something serious about climate change.

  5. HALCYON December 23, 2006 7:52 am

    1.No
    2.Neutral
    3.Stagflation
    4:Uranium stocks
    5.No,it will fall well into 3Q 2008
    6.Climatic changes continues
    7.Yes
    8.No
    9.Stay away from cities
    10.Worsening in Middle East
    10.Putin and GWBush last year in office

  6. dud December 23, 2006 12:30 pm

    1. 30 % 2.Hold at 5.25 3.deflation initially, inflation later 4.40% short the dow, 40% commodities uranium, junior miners etc. , 20% bullion 5. Housing goes to level of 1999
    6.Yes, heat waves, hurricanes, drought
    7.30% chance
    8. 70% chance probably smaller than 9/11
    9.Own your home & enough land to raise food,Know your neighbors, Have as many productive skills as possible ie. hunting, gardening, food storage, mechanics etc.
    10.Attacking Iran
    10. Impeachment of GW

  7. Mike P. December 24, 2006 6:56 am

    1.No USD crash in 07.
    2.Fed rates will be net lower
    3.Deflation
    4.Bear Funds
    5.Housing isnt even close to bottoming
    6.No strange weather
    7.Yes
    8.Yes
    9. Porfolio should be 90% cash,10% precious metals
    10.Best news……advances in teleportation

  8. topcat December 24, 2006 9:14 am

    1. No crash, unless you call a 20% drop a crash.
    2. Rates will be higher, about 25%.
    3. Stagflation certainly.
    4. PM’s and cash for emergency; short term CD’s, only stocks will be PM miner’s & explorers.
    5. Housing has not hit bottom yet. Highly inflated areas going back to CY02 prices; low inflated areas might even pick up 2-3% per year.
    6. Earth changes will continue; polar caps continue to disappear; North gets hotter & dryer; South hotter yet; overall climactic conditions get wierder; Great Brittan becomes an iceberg.
    7. Don’t think we will need to attach Iran as “…Israel’s top court OK’d military assassinations.” (IBD 12/06)
    8. There probably will be an attack but hard to quantify as to greater in scale (lives, planes, dollars, building etc.). Think this one will be greater on some scales.
    9. Survive by having skills valuable in a depression, as well as, no debt and a fair amount of hard assets. Owning a small farm would be helpful.
    10. Worst: we have to wait another year to correct all the financial imbalances.
    10. Best: The worst is behind us and Nostradamus was wrong.

  9. Michael Von Brah December 28, 2006 7:07 pm

    1. Go down but not crash
    2. ?
    3. ?
    4. Precious metals
    5. Not but will get close to bottom.
    6. Yes
    7. Both, same thing anyways
    8. No
    9. Be debt free
    10. Attack on Iran
    10. No idea.

  10. Al Harris December 28, 2006 7:10 pm

    1.N0. It will bottom aboutJan10/07 and rise to about 101–104
    2.Lower
    3.Deflation
    4.Buy Pulse Data PSD on TSX
    5.No
    6.Yes!
    7.No
    8.N0
    9.Cash is King
    10.DJI crash
    11.DJI will top out about Feb 23/07

  11. Minero December 28, 2006 8:07 pm

    1. If we can make it through the year without a terrorist attack or a major natural disaster, we won’t have a crach.
    However, if we were to do something really stupid (remember who lives in the White House) and cause China to loose confidence in our integrity, they could dump the dollar and cause a crash.
    2. Interest rates can’t change very much, they are blocked on both sides!
    3. We will have both inflation and deflation, plus a bit of stagflation.
    4. Buy Gold!!!!!!
    5. Housing will bottom in about 2008.
    6. These are the beginning of the “End Times” just read your Bible.
    7. There is a fair chance of an attack (remember White House?).
    8. There is about a 25% chance of a terrorist attack. About 98% of the arabs in sand land would like to see one; however, their camels have a problem swimming over while loaded. However, it is possible that they could get some home grown assistance in their projects.
    9. Surviving a depression would be no problem. I worry about the lights going out, forever!!!!
    10. Worst news: The Dems will continue the war as usual.
    Best news: There hasn’t been any good news for the US in almost 35 years!!

    Things are really starting to accelerate, it does’t look very promising. I have started storing up food, fuel, guns, etc. I have never been a radical, but I can no longer deny what I am seeing. We are no longer a nation populated with good people. We have the most corrupt government and banking system in the western hemisphere.
    BANANA REPUBLIC!!!!!!! Since we no longer have a free press, the masses no nothing. They have been lulled into believing “All is Well”. The criminals in power have purchased their estates (and ranches) in South America and Switzerland. They have their jets staged and fueled on the tarmac ready for departure.

  12. Rich December 28, 2006 10:07 pm

    OK, here’s my predictions (copied over from the other thread):

    1. Will the U.S. Dollar Crash in 2007?

    Nah, the dollar will end the year at around 80 after a few bumps along the way. It may dip to as low as 78 during the year, causing a major crisis in confidence for a couple of days, but then will return above the critical 80 mark.

    2. What will the Fed do with interest rates in 2007: Net raise, lower or net neutral?

    Neutral for the year, maybe with a slight easing after the summer and in to the fall.

    3. Will inflation or deflation be the overriding concern in 2007?

    Stagflation will rule the day, things will be more or less as they are now. Wages inflation will continue because workers need to catch up on real inflation of essential items. However US built cars will deflate! It’ll be a mixed bag, but the stock market will continue to inflate.

    4. How would you invest $100,000 in ‘07 to achieve the best gains?

    25% gold & silver, 25% international markets (China and India), 25% DOW stocks and 25% oil.

    5. Has housing hit bottom? If not, how far will it fall?

    Real estate is all about location, so if you are in a good one then prices will be flat to slightly down (even up in some really unique places). The overpriced areas will come down harderst, around the coast mainly. If prices drop too much then interest rates will drop to stabilize, but I think the DOW will serve as the engine for asset growth and that will help keep real estate prices from falling badly. The over extended ARMS that are coming due in ‘07 will be refinanced to 30 yr fixed products, averting a disaster in consumer spending/confidence. Rate inversion will become commonplace.

    6. Will Earth be rocked by more strange and record breaking “earth changes” in 2007?

    I think we are in for some real shocks in the months and years ahead. I think there is more potential for catastrophy based on the gyrations of the sun than almost anything humans are currently doing. Seattle has been rocked for years now with earthquakes, eruptions, winds, snowstorms, etc. It’s speeding up, and appears to be that way all over the world. I would predict that we all become much better educated about space weather and sun cycles in the year ahead!

    7. Will the U.S. and/or Israel attack Iran?

    I think this is a tough question! I hope not, but I suspect something could happen in the late spring. Iran doesn’t need a nuke, but they do want one, they may have the right to one - given that they are surrounded by Russia, Israel, Pakistan and India who are all funky players in the global nucular scheme of things, but they would be pretty scary if they had one! I lived in Iran under the Shah and I’d be skeptical about giving him the bomb, so letting some mullahs lose with the bomb is probably a bad idea! Can you imagine what would happen if the Sunni’s tried to squish the Shi’ites in Iraq again, and Iran had the bomb!? I think Venezuela with the bomb would also be a bad thing, or Cuba, Libya, Somalia, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, man the list is long. Come to think of it I think WE shouldn’t have the bomb!

    8. Will the US experience another terrorist attack on a scale greater than 9/11?

    If terrorism is real, and according to the Rockefeller agenda, we are meant to fight this Clash of Civilizations for another 50 years, then it stands to reason there needs to be another largescale attack at some point, you can’t keep a good war going without casualties. For the past 5 years our “allies” have been taking the hits, London, the Aussies in Bali, Spain, etc. Sooner of later the wheel spins back around to the US. Whoever is perpetrating these attacks presumably will have another go at us based on some agenda that they are trying to fulfill. I suspect the timing is most likely to be in the lead up to the next election - so early 2008 would be my guess.

    9. What is the best way to survive a second great depression?

    Put you head between your knees and pray!!?
    Seriously though here are some things you could do: Make sure you can grow stuff in your garden. Have some physical precious metals available for barter or trade. Have cash on hand, as much as you can keep. Have a way to store water in a reasonable amount. Have a months supply of dried goods just in case the food supply becomes problematic (our food supply is now massively centralized, if there was a dispute, or a disruption in our daily food supply we’d be in a world of hurt, so be prepared to keep you and your family going for at least a month), this same supply of food would be used in the aftermath of a natural or manmade disaster too. Try to be out of debt, easier said than done, but its never too late to start the process, also educate people you know to stay out of debt. If you live in the burbs a depression will be very hard on you because there are few jobs locally. Getting to and from a job may become a major hassle, learn to ride a bike or get a moped! Get a job close to home. Learn to do things with your hands that have value. Downsize your house. Learn to eat less. Drink more alcohol!

    10. What is the worst news that will come out of 2007? Another natural disaster bigger than the tsunami, could be a pandemic or earthquake/eruption.

    10. What is the best news that will come out of 2007? The Rockefellers, the Gates, Exxon, the World Bank, the World Health Organizations, etc. will cure Malaria! Either that or they’ll find a way to eugenically alter the world so only the rich survive! Check this out:

    http://www.mmv.org/article.php3?id_article=75

    Then go and study up on Eugenics, the Rockefellers, Hitler, and the Human Genome Project - - it will blow you away.

    Cheers Rich

  13. dgkfnpfi December 29, 2006 5:19 am

    dgkfnpfi

    dgkfnpfi

  14. Uscanmexico December 29, 2006 7:19 am

    My prediction is appreciating US dollar, continuation of upward journy of US Stocks and collapse in commodity prices.

    Please read my updates at uscommoditiestrader.com

  15. JQ December 29, 2006 8:00 am

    1. Would not be supprised to see the dollar hit a low in the first four months of ‘07 (between 76 - 78) and close higher Dec ‘07 than where it is trading today. (bet on lower crude prices after April and a substantial drop between April-June 07.)

  16. ESPMan December 29, 2006 9:34 am

    If Sadaam has really been turned over to the control of Iraqi authorities, they will let him escape, he will fight back to power and Iraq will once again be Sadaam land.

  17. Ad Man December 29, 2006 9:47 am

    1. Dollar Crash - NOT in 07
    2. Net neutral.
    3. Inflation.
    4. Wait for China (FXI) reset (soon, I hope),then go all in (through ‘08 Olympics.)
    5. Close to bottom - yes. Q. Why would Gates, Buffet buy homebuilders recently?
    A. They know more than you do.
    6. Yes - unless Cornhusker is right and God makes the weather. (54% of US pop. thinks so.- USA TODAY poll)
    7. No attack on Iran.
    8. Big Terrror- Not for a few more years, no.
    9. USD and M-16. Ok - And some gold.
    10. Bird Flu mutation/migration
    10. New plant created that recycles 4x CO2

  18. Mark Aarssen December 29, 2006 10:18 pm

    Hello Michael,
    I made some predictions in 2003 which you published and which can still be found in your archives as “Letter from Canada”.
    As I write today December 29, 2006 my community of 12,000 has lost 3,500 jobs since 2003 mostly auto sector related. Both U.S and Canadian companies have abandoned their collective manufacturing interests here. We have lost 5 major employers and there have been no replacement industries to fill the void.
    I have had to change jobs 5 times now and that includes taking a year to go to college for upgrading and training. I ran for city council in an effort to address the crisis but was unsuccessful. My former union brothers have lost heart and hope. Hundreds have moved out and will not return. The industrial park is a ghost town of for sale signs and for lease signs. Our lunch bucket town has become a soup kitchen.
    American call centers have come and gone in that time. Service industries are the norm and where we once earned $18.00/Hr Canadian we are offered $8.00 and $10.00 service jobs if you’re lucky.
    I realize many communities are dealing with similar scenarios. I just wanted to give you an update and frame my predictions with my local situation.

    2007 Predictions from Canada

    #1. No the U.S. Dollar will not crash it will refinance its debt by becoming a new currency joining Canada and Mexico in a new North American “Neuro”. This will spread the debt over all 3 countries and avoid the crash and provide a revaluation of North American GDP/Debt ratio.

    #2. Look for cuts until currency merging is required to avoid hyperinflation and we see #1 initiated.

    #3. Look for deflation in every sector.

    #4. Investment in military expansion in Europe look for unprecedented growth. (Israel Peace Plan Hoax)

    #5. Housing will fail and Hootervilles will replace neighborhoods.

    #6. Easy, Yes, earthquakes, floods, insect infestations, crop failures, poisoned food chain, biblical level stuff.

    #7. No to an attack on Iran this year. Look for it in July of 2011. In 2007 a seven year peace plan will be brokered between Israel and Palestine and the region will seem to prosper for 3 and half years. Then Iran will attack Israel but all out war will be avoided through EU intervention.

    #8. Most likely. God help us. We are in a religious war with Islam extremists. They are now generations deep and well funded, trained, equipped, planted and motivated. I would look to soft targets that are American Icons much like the Twin Towers were. Landmarks, they want to humiliate America since they can not defeat her militarily.
    The end result is terror and a frightened public, that’s all they have to achieve. Canada may also be included we share hundreds of border crossings and do billions in trade daily.

    9. Put your faith in God and your family. Be a good neighbor; pay your bills, live within your means. Share what you have and develop a real sense of community. Combine resources move in with a relative, put two or three families under one roof that is paid for and everyone do what they can to contribute to the common good.
    Small communities and rural communities offer the safest alternative.

    10. The worst news will be for one billion Catholics. The church will fall apart as it merges with Islam in order to stop terrorist attacks against Catholic churches around the world.

    10. The best news will seem to be the re-birth of Palestine as a nation. Israelis and Palestinians will exchange gifts to commemorate the historic accord. The EU will maintain the peace by arms and construction will boom in the region and economies will grow for 3 and half years.

    Mark Aarssen
    Canada

  19. Wolfie52 December 31, 2006 5:49 pm

    1)Will continue slow decline.
    2)Fed will probably lower rates.
    3)Inflation
    4)I precious metals is the place to be.
    5)No way. It may turn up (dead cat bounce) for a few months, and then continue to decline.
    6)I think ‘07 will be a calm year for “earth changes.”
    7)There will no attack on Iran.
    8)Terrorism is mostly a plot to divert our attention from the real problems. The CIA(and related agencies) is largely behind the terrorism that now exists in the world. So unless conditions deteriorate in the US more than I expect, we shall see no significant “terrorist” activity.
    9))To survive you need basic skills. FIRE (finance/Insurance/Real Estate) jobs will start to decline. Learn to fix and grow things. Keeps some $ in Euro’s and gold/silver.
    10) Good news is the war in Iraq will begin to wind down, and the bad news is Peak Oil will become more apparent.
    Good luck to all and best wishes!

  20. Rich December 31, 2006 6:58 pm

    I just picked this up on Comcast, this is what some polls are claiming American’s believe will happen in ‘07, read ‘em n weep!

    +++++++++++++++++++++

    Poll: Americans Predict Attacks in 2007
    By DARLENE SUPERVILLE, Associated Press Writer

    2 hours ago

    WASHINGTON - Another terrorist attack, a warmer planet, death and destruction from a natural disaster. These are among Americans’ grim predictions for the United States in 2007.

    Only a minority of people think the U.S. will go to war with Iran or North Korea over those countries’ nuclear ambitions. An overwhelming majority of those surveyed think Congress will raise the federal minimum wage. One-third see hope for a cure to cancer.

    These are among the findings of an Associated Press-AOL News poll that asked people in the U.S. to contemplate what 2007 holds for the country.

    Six in 10 people think the U.S. will be the victim of a terrorist attack. An identical percentage thinks it likely that a biological or nuclear weapon will be unleashed somewhere else in the world.

    Seventy percent of people in the U.S. predict a major natural disaster in the country and an equal percentage expects worsening global warming. Also, 29 percent think it likely that the U.S. will withdraw its troops from Iraq.

    Among other predictions for the U.S. in 2007:

    _35 percent predict the military draft will be reinstated.

    _35 percent predict a cure for cancer will be found.

    _25 percent anticipate the second coming of Jesus Christ.

    _19 percent think scientists are likely to find evidence of extraterrestrial life.

    With Democrats poised to take control of Congress this week, eight in 10 people predict lawmakers will raise the $5.15-an-hour federal minimum wage. It would be the first increase since 1997.

    Democratic leaders have proposed raising it in stages to $7.25 an hour. President Bush has said he supports the idea, with some protections for small businesses.

    Fewer than half the public think it likely the U.S. will go to war with Iran or North Korea. Should it come down to that, 40 percent think the battle will be with Iran while 26 percent said North Korea.

    Higher gas prices, legalized gay marriage and the possible arrival of bird flu also are seen as being in the cards.

    More than 90 percent of people think higher gas prices are likely. A gallon of self-serve regular gasoline averaged $2.29 last week, compared with $3 over the summer.

    Also, 57 percent said it is likely that another state will legalize gay marriage. Same-sex marriage is legal in Massachusetts; four other states offer civil unions or domestic partnerships.

    People were split on whether 2007 will bring the U.S. its first bird flu case. More than 150 people worldwide have died from the disease. Health officials fear a pandemic if the virus mutates into a form easily passed from person to person.

    Women generally were more likely than men to expect some of the more dire predictions to come true, such as a worldwide terrorist attack and war with Iran or North Korea. Democrats and people under 35 were more likely than Republicans and older people to say global warming will worsen in 2007.

    The telephone poll of 1,000 adults was conducted Dec. 12-14 by Ipsos, an international polling firm. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

    ___

    These results make me think that the folks on this website and far more sane than the general public.

    Happy New Year Everyone.

    Cheers Rich

  21. Darren January 3, 2007 4:03 pm

    How I would invest 100,000 dollars for best gain. Answer based on 100,000 being maximum betting size with in total cash & not all of ones cash.

    Buy 40,000 dallars of deep in the money june 2007 calls with little or no premium on the S&P 500.Since it is Jan 3rd the day of the posting buy on the opening of the 4th.
    Buy also on the 4th 1000 dollars of the Dec 07 600 S&P put 4500 dollars of the Dec 08 600 S&P put & 4500 dollars worth of the Dec 09 600 S&P put.

    On Feb 26th if an up day sell all June calls, If not sell on Feb 27th by market close.
    If market crashes into this important date of Feb 27th sell all options. Then diversify amongst the major currencies, with a higher weight to the Canadian Dollar & verry small portion of deep in the money far out in time gold calls & a few bags of silver coins.

    On Febuary 27th if market has not crashed most likely out come.
    put 2.5% of capital in Dec 07 600 put S&P500
    Put 45% of capital in Dec 08 600 put S&P500
    45% of capital in Dec09 600 put S&P 500

    2.5 % of capital in Dec 08 puts 10% below market value then once the strke is 10% or more in the money with a rally higher sell puts & buy Dec 08 puts with a strike about 10% below market value.

    I do not have a calander so do not know exact date. 17 days after YOM Kippur near the end of the day sell all puts.

    Buy deep in the money Dec 08 calls with 50% of cash the calls must have little or no premium

    Premiums will most likely be high @ this time so deep in the money calls must be used. If all premiums are to high
    for options. Buy ETF on the dow to go long with 10% of cash

    Hold for remainder of year.

  22. Darren January 3, 2007 4:07 pm

    I made a mistake The 09 put should be 700 strike & not 600 strike. that should be bought on Feb 27th of 20007

  23. Darren January 3, 2007 4:13 pm

    As for the worst bad news for 2007 there will not be any, as for the best good news for 2007 there will not be any. The news will be news regardless of preception. There will be thoughts of what is for & what is against ones values.

  24. Darren January 11, 2007 7:41 pm

    The first step in surviving the next depression.

    Is learning how to think to cultivate valid ideas.

    The most secure jobs “could” be ones that cater to the
    individuals that are rich after the credit crunch.

    If one has enough money they might consider buying property in differnt countries so they can move if country they live in becomes unsave.

    Sell the world to raise cash.

    Own several differnt currencies if you can afford.

    A bag of silver coins

    @ a cetain point it might be dangerous to appear wealthy.

    As depression depends be carefull of irrational people who will be quick to anger.

    If you a strong commitment to reason, you might have to pretend you do not, so the men of blind faith dont harm you like in the dark ages.

    Be carefull going against an angry mob. Wait for right opportunity to try to cultivate undertsanding.

    canned food well hidden

    bottled water

    be an independent thinker because if depresion deepens enough like in the darkages few will be committed to reason. Do no memorize what the herd is saying is true without first judging. It will be a dangerous time for ones primary contact with reality being through consciousness of others. The much use of Faith instead of mans biological distinguihable trait reason could put man @ risk of survival.

    Understand the mood will have shifted from optimistic to pestimistic & how it effects how individuals act. Try to make a positive differance but plan well for when to act for safety reasons.

    If you made big cash on the coming collapse be carefull of those that could be angry. Keep low profile.

    Depression might not get bad enough for some of the above but it is wise to be prepared.

  25. nick wolf January 15, 2007 8:50 am

    1. yes
    2 yes
    3 no
    4 gold
    5 no, another 30% down
    6 yes
    7 no
    8 no
    9 move to NZ
    10 depression/none

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