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Does the Fed Want to Prevent Deflation? Why Should it?

Posted on January 24, 2007
Filed Under Uncategorized |

Friends,

I’m looking forward to your comments on this article:

Can the Fed Prevent Deflation? Does it want to?

Thanks!
Michael

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Comments

498 Comments so far
  1. Pinatubo January 24, 2007 4:13 pm

    The serious risk of both deflation and inflation is a collapse of the dollar’s value. At the present time, our main trading partners maintain a stable currency value against the dollar by recycling the excess trade dollars back to the United States, buying debt and other financial assets. In other words, they trade Toyotas for our paper. This is such an outrageous, uneven trade and it is safe to assume that this practice will end at some point. When that happens, the dollar will drop against the Yuan and Yen, as it is dropping against other currencies.

    At that point we will see possibly ruinous inflation in that prices of imported good will rise dramatically since the dollar will be worth less as it drops. The whole scenario is tricky since Japan and China own all kinds of dollar based assets so their dollar investments will also drop in value as the dollar drops. That is partly why they have been throwing good money after bad for so long. The dollar is already dropping against many other currencies including 3rd World currencies such as the Baht and Peso. It remains stable against some currencies because central banks of countries artificially manage the values of their currencies. You can damn off the inevitable only so long.

    What has happened is the USA has a gun to the head of every central bank in the world. No one wants to contemplate a world where the dollar implodes. Actually, I have never seen a scenario of the financial aftermath of such a dollar collapse. If someone has one, please send it to me: Jeffkassel@comcast.net

  2. Ira January 24, 2007 4:23 pm

    Theory is fine, but, it needs to be followed by specific recommendations. You may be right so what do I do about it? Buy gold? (with true deflation it will go down) Buy long term bonds? (they will go up with deflation) Short stocks? (the stock market will crash with deflation) Stay in cash? (safe in deflation, a disaster with hyperinflation)

  3. V man January 24, 2007 4:24 pm

    My first thought is, deflation of what?

    Real estate, cars, oil, precious metals, food?

    I think that there will always be inflation in certain areas and deflation in other areas.

    With that said, I’ll take a stab at it.

    I have noticed that many people argue that the consumer is completely tapped therefore inflation cannot continue.

    The point I take issue with is that the consumer is somehow responsible for inflation.

    If inflation is the printing of money beyond the rate of production of goods then the consumer cannot cause hyperinflation.

    The consumer does not have the ability to obtain money without producing some type of output, with the exception of borrowing.

    The consumer can aid inflation by taking out greater and greater loans but at some point the consumer hits a limit.

    So how could the consumer cause hyperinflation? Is it expected that even upon reaching the limit of debt serviceability the consumer would some how borrow more and continue to deficit spend to infinity?

    My conclusion is that the consumer cannot cause hyperinflation; whatever the consumers bid the prices up to, they must be able to afford (with the exception of deficit spending but again consumer deficit spending is temporary due to debt service limits).

    However, there is one entity that can deficit spend to infinity, can print money without producing anything, AND can bid prices up beyond what consumers (or anyone that doesn’t own a printing press) can afford.

    It is that entity that we should be keeping an eye on. After taxes, fees, permits, tickets, and other vehicles of government money collection decline due to the slowing of the economy will the government make deep cuts or print the money it needs? I think the obvious answer is yes.

    However, I believe the US dollar was printed well in excess of US production long ago and the reserve currency status is really the only thing holding it all together.

    Much like printing dollars in excess of gold reserves; printing dollars in excess of oil production should lead to hyperinflation. Consequently if M3 continues to climb but oil production peaks, ditto.

  4. Hose January 24, 2007 4:26 pm

    The Fed will not allow deflation under any circumstances. The alternative is to “inflate into oblivion”, and that’s what we’ll have to endure.

    With all the central bankers in on the new money pump scam, it’s possible that THIS is the “inflation run for the roses”…. that is, nothing will be allowed to contract. The Powers are dreadfully fearful that if deflation gets traction, it won’t be mild and temporary. So, they won’t take that chance.

    Ultimately, there will be very high inflation, the USD will lose another 95% of its value, and the Powers will try to blame somebody else… like China.

    The best scenario for Boomers like me is that it takes another 30 years before it all implodes. By then, we’ll have either died off or have Alzheimers and won’t know the difference. However, our kids and grandkids are thoroughly hosed.

    If there were any justice in the world, the Administration, Legislature, and Federal reserve would all line up so that every American could give each of them a swift kick in the gonads!

  5. Huntsman January 24, 2007 4:29 pm

    Uncle Sam goes to the Federal Reserve to borrow money. I presume that the Federal Reserve (a private, for profit corporation based in England) does not really give Uncle Sam money. It, too, merely writes out a worthless check which the government uses to print worthless money which it distributes it to the banks. They, in turn, give worthless money to us in the form of interest on our deposits (of worthless money) or loans upon which we then pay them interest using worthless money.

    The money in circulation today has no real value. NONE! It only has perceived value, just like an oil painting, an antique automobile, or a shell from the beach. It is only worth what the person you want to give it to deems it to be worth.

    As bad as it has already been eroded, let’s hope that it continues to be perceived as having at least ’some value’ else we are all (including the u.s.A. - and that is the proper way to label it!) already bankrupt and just haven’t realized it yet.

    I pity the next generation or two. What a shock this is going to be to them when they wake up and find that EVERYTHING in the united states of America, including their home and the land it is built upon, is owned by people in another country!! WOW!!

  6. bill payne January 24, 2007 4:35 pm

    No one knows?

    But there sure are a lot of words on Internet, TV, and newspapers.

    Do not fear the enemy, for your enemy can only take your life. It is far better that you fear the media, for they will steal your HONOR. That awful power, the public opinion of a nation, is created in America by a horde of ignorant, self-complacent simpletons who failed at ditching and shoemaking and fetched up in journalism on their way to the poorhouse.
    Mark Twain

    In America half the population doesn’t read the paper. Clearly, they are the intelligent half.
    Gore Vidal

    No shortage of BS.

  7. airtight January 24, 2007 4:45 pm

    A frequent problem in these kinds of discussions is that two people are using the same word to mean different things. Here is a solution to put us all on the same page …

    “Inflation” originally referred only to “monetary inflation” — adding to the money supply. When you inflate the money supply, one of the effects is that prices go up. So it is correct to say that prices go up because of inflation.

    But prices going up is NOT INFLATION. It is only one of the effects of inflation. Inflation is an increase of the money supply.

    It seems a loosing battle though, because it is now so popularly entrenched that inflation is an increase in prices of things. So, if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em. My suggestion is that for clear discourse we stop using the word “Inflation” by itself.

    Instead, we can speak of “Monetary Inflation” — the increase of the money supply. Or we can speak of “Price Inflation” — the increase of prices for things. If each concept has its own word then it is possible to say things like, “Monetary inflation is most often the real cause of price inflation.” (Try to express that concept using only the word “inflation” and you are immediately in the midst of confusion.)

    Those terms defined, my comments would be these:

    1. The Federal Reserve does not fight monetary inflation. As the institution that presides over the creation of fiat money, the Fed is the cause of monetary inflation. In fact, it is the PRIMARY FUNCTION of the Fed to inflate the money supply. That is why it was created. And it has done so well at this function that as Michael observed, a nickel Dairy Queen now costs a dollar. (Except that the reason the price of the Dairy Queen went from five cents to 100 cents, is that the Fed increased the money supply. Monetary inflation begets price inflation.)

    2. What the Fed must manage is not whether the money supply will be increased or decreased. Their function is to increase it. What they must manage is the EXPECTATION of inflation. They can do this by jawboning about the threat of deflation. Other than Robert Prechter though, few people believe that the money supply can really be deflated. Prices can fall, yes. But the money supply is another thing.

    3. Two resources are excellent for understanding and knowing what to do about the Fed’s increasing the money supply. The first is W. Edward Griffin’s book THE CREATURE FROM JEKYL ISLAND, that explains how the Fed came to be, how it works in the economy today, and what could be done in order to restore sound money in the United States. The second resource is Steven Saville’s advisory service called Speculative-Investor.com He has some of the most intelligent, cogent commentary to be found anywhere on the disconnect between what the Fed says and what the Fed does, and how to profit from it.

  8. Houston January 24, 2007 4:54 pm

    There’s no motivation for the Fed to create deflation. They create money, but it’s not owned by the Fed Governors. They can’t spend it. So why would they care?

    Their only motivation is to go down in history as having done well guiding economic growth, and hoping to get reappointed for doing so.

  9. airtight January 24, 2007 5:04 pm

    I understand the symbiotic relationship between the Government and the Fed to work like this:

    A. The Government issues bonds — promises to pay money in the future.

    B. Banks purchase these bonds, writing checks to do so. (Ask where the money to pay these checks is going to come from … it will come from selling the bonds to the Fed.)

    C. The banks either sell the bonds to the Fed or borrow from the Fed using the bonds as collateral.

    D. Relying on the strength of the Government bonds, the Fed writes checks to the banks, which is how the checks that the banks wrote to the Government are covered.

    In essence the banks are acting as the middleman between the Government and the Fed. Ask where the money came from that backs the checks written by the Fed. They simply issue the checks. That is why credit from the Fed is money in the US today. It is fiat money, created by direction, and not by production. As it is created, it increases the money supply, and hence the Fed’s function is to cause inflation. But to cause it without anyone getting too mad about it.

    The reason the system works for the Government is that they can spend as much money as they want for planes and dams and Government workers, and not have to pay for it in real money. They just sell bonds, and the Fed creates the money to cover the Government’s checks.

    The reason it works for the banks, is that as the money supply is inflated, they are the beneficiaries of the creation of new money out of thin air, that they can then lend and collect interest on. The Fed is simply a vehicle that allows the banks to play this game. It is a good vehicle, because it has been given a monopoly by the Government and doesn’t have any competition. (The original campaign was that the creation of money was too important to entrust to politicians. So it should be entrusted to banks.)

    Who the system doesn’t work for, in the long term, is people who produce their wealth by production and saving, rather than by financial flirtation. They find that the dollar of savings that they accumulated from working, is after a number of years worth only a nickel.

  10. ken albert January 24, 2007 5:10 pm

    When Bernanke spoke of the Fed causing the 30’s depression, he was not, as you say, saying the Fed allowed it to consolidate power. He was saying the Fed mistakenly did not flood the economy with liquidity as they would do in the future if similar conditions happen.

  11. ken albert January 24, 2007 5:14 pm

    I cannot help but correct your assertions. You said the dollar has little room to fall further before it is worthless (on the premise that it is worth 5cents on the 1913dollar). That is not true, the dollar is measured against Something (other currencies, gold) and can, in fact do much lower. Another way to look at it is to pretend the 5cents left is a full 100.. then you can see that it can easily go to 50 or any other number.

  12. Larry McCullough January 24, 2007 5:14 pm

    Many thanks, Michael. Someone has finally posted a concise primer of inflation/deflation, complete with some of the best best links for people who have no clue what the fed and our government have wrought.

    For many of us here in the “choir”, the hardest thing is to make our acquaintances aware that there is even a problem! That, and without stirring up the phony “culture wars” that have been stoked by big government and big media.

    Of course, I approve of Russo’s movie, but it seems that the ‘big picture’ is lost on a lot of folks, due to the large segment devoted to the IRS. “Fiat Empire” is more to the point, and palatable to the politically sensitive, I hope. In fairness to Russo, I have to say that his movie was definitely surpressed.

    Anyway, thanks for your work; I, for one, will try to make good use of it. Thanks also for helping Ron Paul, and guys like me, who constantly have to swallow their pessimism and do the right thing: get the word out!
    Larry

  13. Dave January 24, 2007 6:01 pm

    I’m totally confused. Do I buy the Hummer now or not?

  14. godraz January 24, 2007 6:05 pm

    After reading this, and Mish’s articles, it would appear that it doesn’t much matter which way the wind blows on this concern, as either way the Fed banksters ultimately win.

    Having played their inflationary credit and speculative expansion card into the hilt of the US consumer’s heart, who ran with it into the only remaining american dream of appreciating capitol investment left — their own personal flimsy MacCastle, while obliging in the dispersal of our manufacturing and worthwhile work base outsourced overseas — there may be nothing else for the Fed to do but ride any such deflationary (i.e. psychological shift in consumer ability and sentiment very well upon us) with a smart twist of the hilt into the failing public’s gut.

    As noted in your article by the quote of a respondent, this economic machination is inherent in the game as rigged. What do they really care if that’s the way the wind is blowing.

    We The People who today better understand the power of money monopoly may not have willingly given this Constitutional power away as it was to the Fed, but the fact remains that this power of and over money control has long since left the barn, and all that’s left is to hunker down in a garden stall that’s not riddled with debt and has a few gold coins stashed away under the hay.

    In all honesty, I don’t know which way our ill economic wind will turn or blow the house down. In this day and age there are too damn many variables and gollums on the loose. Either way, it always helps to know where and how to eat, sleep, and take a shit (in a composting bucket) as free of it all as one can be.

  15. RICKJ2 January 24, 2007 6:27 pm

    There is a theory out there that this time, despite the increases in money supply, we will have DEFLATION because this time it is primarily a “credit” inflation. And credit, unlike currency or species, can dissappear overnight.

  16. muleskinner January 24, 2007 6:47 pm

    The Iraqi government during the Saddam regime had paper money that was of poor quality and the ink ran all over the place. Inflation ensued shortly thereafter. If you have paper money, it has to be printed on good paper.

    The average income in Iraq before Saddam was 9000 USD per year for Iraqis. After Saddam gained power, it fell to 2000 dollars per year with rampant inflation to follow.

    The war between Iraq and Iran devastated the Iraqi economy.
    That’ll stop inflation in its tracks.

    Sounds like the Fed pays Peter, so Peter can pay Paul, then Paul pays the Fed.

    Everybody is getting robbed.

    The Fed doesn’t know if it is afoot or horseback.

    In 1955, if you had 1500 dollars to invest, with forty years inbetween to now, it would be worth 30 grand or so. You can buy a new car. You could buy a new car, electric windows, loaded, in 1955 for 1300 dollars. You have lost money by investing 1500 dollars so foolishly.

    Had you saved 1500 silver dollars, it would be worth 18,000 dollars. You really lose then.

    The minimum wage in 1955 was a buck an hour, two grand a year.
    Forty dollars per week times 50 weeks equals two grand.

    12 dollars per ounce of silver made that minimum wage job worth 24,000 dollars per year in 2007 dollars.

    Who is getting robbed? The American tax slave, that’s who.

    Inflation has kicked the economy in the teeth.

    At one time, you could come back from a job loss with not much effort, but now, if you lose your job, you’re in a world of hurt.

    A minimum wage job in 1955 meant you still would have some money at the end of a year.

    The finest cars in the world, the best jets manufactured right here, and boat loads of junk from China.

    Two dollars and change buys a gallon of gas. Computers, the internet, the best entertainment from coast to coast. Modern day troubadours just keep on keeping on, regardless of the state of the economy. The best value in all of the world throughout all of time, and yet it is not the same as an economy that is stable (a currency that retains its value).

    Low prices, low costs, wages that pay to meet your needs and wants are what capitalism is all about. It offers a high potential for profit and provides room to mitigate losses so you can continue to maintain a decent existence.

    A fiat currency fritters that all out the window. It’s not the same.

    The result is an economy in a perpetual state of predation.

    Peter robs Paul, Paul robs Peter. Everybody loses and loses and loses and loses.

    A government that has been around for two hundred and thirty years should have oodles and oodles of money in the treasury, not eight trillion dollars in debt.

    It’s a travesty of a mockery.

    Where will it all end?

    I’m tired of spending too much money on beer that all tastes the same. I started making my own. It costs less, you know what you are getting when you brew your own, and you’re not running to the beer depot for more when it runs out. I use the same bottles over and over.

    In seven days, I’ll be bottling more. Go to your favorite malt and hop shop and buy your own brew kit. It is well worth the effort.

    That’s how you get ahead in this world.

    Want money? Don’t spend it foolishly, save it, buy what you need, forget about all of the foam and froth, and drink the beer.

    The proof is in the pudding.

    Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. In essence, get back to the good old days. Ignore the Fed. It’s dead.

    ‘In heaven there is no beer, that’s why we drink it here’

  17. mike January 24, 2007 7:00 pm

    Hello, {1} the 5 cents left of the dollar goes for paper,
    ink,wages etc. in other words its not worth the paper it is printed on. {2] Since the start of the 20th century and the creation of the fed. The “robber barons” have been selling out each gov./Country they got their grip on. They have financed every socialist/fascist government created and NOW they are creating a new socialist democracy in china while they destroy America by importing RED china style gov along with the toys.Read Benjamin Freedman’s article to get an idea of how the ONLY care for Power/
    Control.
    http://www.rense.com/general75/neneb.htm
    {3} inflation is purposely created in order to move real wealth which is material resources out of the hands of the weak into the hands of the strong. All the selfless promises made by politicions is just the left hand distraction while the right hand creates the trick.
    This statement by a wise African sums it up, “When the missionaries came to Africa, they had the Bible and we had the land. They said “let us close our eyes and pray”. When we opened them, we had the Bible, and they had the land.”

  18. mikeck44 January 24, 2007 7:53 pm

    Good post Michael. I was more or less of the belief that deflation would never be allowed to happen due to all the advantages inflation afforded the FED and government. What those thugs collect during deflation makes it obvious that they can “reset” the dollar without missing a beat if that is their desire. Watching M-3 like a hawk and supporting Dr. Paul may be our (We The People’s) only hope.

    Mike

  19. Breck January 24, 2007 8:55 pm

    “As Mish points out, there is near complete confidence that the Fed can and will be able to stop inflation simply by “printing money”.

    Shouldn’t that read “…stop DEflation simply by ‘printing money’”? Or am I missing something?

    Electrum!

  20. anon January 24, 2007 8:59 pm

    Nice post. We need more of these simple, straightforward, well researched articles to help wake up our friends and family.

  21. Kiddius Rodi January 24, 2007 9:22 pm

    Monetary inflation is necessary, because industrial production decreases the cost of manufacturing year after year. Information technology only exacerbates the natural deflation caused by industrial production.

    For example, my company sells a widget for one dollar today. Next year, Wal-mart will purchase it from my competitor, who will sell it for 90 cents. I reinvest in my production line, and am able to sell it for 80 cents the following year. In this type of environment, it is impossible for owners to pay employees ever increasing wages. What am I going to do, give my workers a pay cut for the good job they did? People are not wired for that type of system.

    The First National Bank was created at the founding of the country. It was seen as a tool of the bankers, and its contract was not renewed. The second Central Bank was created, then cancelled by Andrew Jackson, who also saw it as a tool of the bankers. The Third Central Bank, The Fed, was successful in that it made a feigned attempt to stabilize prices so that the prices continually marched upwards. (Read, ‘The Coming Battle’ by MW Walbert)

    The continuous cycles of boom and bust are in most cases caused by excessive lending during the boom, followed by foreclosure and seizure during the bust. The whole effect is magnified by fiat currency. The poor borrow during the boom, the rich foreclose and sieze during the bust.

    Enough of the basics:

    In 2016, at age 70, the first of the Baby-Boomers will begin to make mandatory withdrawals from their IRAs and 401(k)’s. All 2 Million in 2016, will begin to sell stocks in their IRA/401k portfolios in order to meet IRS requirements. The next year, in 2017, an additional 1 million Baby Boomers will join the existing 2 Million, who are now 71, in selling stocks and cashing out Mutual Funds. This process will probably go on for another 20 years, until all 70 Million Baby Boomers have liquidated their accounts. This is the Stock Market crash that everyone has been expecting. With so many mandatory sellers, and so few Gen-X buyers, the Stock Market will tank.

    Where does China fit into all of this:
    Like England did to the USA at the founding of the country, and the North did to the South in the Civil War, and the Federal Government did to the States in the Great Depression, Economic War is waging between the West and China. China is on a desperate, mad plan to industrialize, and modernize their country, with high technology, while at the same time fending off power grabs from the West. They hold gargantuan currency reserves in USDs, but they keep pegged to the dollar, so that they don’t experience even more massive inflation. The western financial powers are injecting massive amounts of currency into the Chinese market, similar to killing doses of Heroin, trying to hook and kill off the Communist Political Leadership.

    I think that the massive bubble in the USA is a means to kill the power structure in China. When China uncouples their currency from the USD, the USD will crash, taking China’s political leadership with it.

    The USA will suffer, but China will suffer more, and the West will finally have its prize, control of China.

    -K

    ‘Eye Yam Sofa King We Todd It’ - say it outloud to yourself slowly.

  22. Richard January 24, 2007 9:23 pm

    The financial aftermath is of course one world fascist government. One world fiat currency.
    From chaos to order. Create the chaos, and then create the order……..new world order, that is.

  23. Michael Nystrom January 24, 2007 9:34 pm

    Thanks everyone for the comments. Airtight - excellent points and references. Ken #9 - I know what Ben was not saying. Did you not read what I wrote about the Statue of Liberty play? If you want to fool people, you don’t say what you mean - you say one thing and do something else! And Ken #10 - yes, you are technically correct. One day it may take $10 to buy what you could have bought with a penny in 1913. And a few weeks later it might take $100. My point is that the Fed has to cool it on inflation SOON if it wants to save the dollar.

    Breck #18 - thank you for that catch. You’re right - my mistake. I will correct it as soon as I can.

    Michael

  24. muleskinner January 24, 2007 9:46 pm

    Benito Mussolini, the premier fascist (corporatist), was lying dead, mashed to a pulp by an enraged Italian populace, and it seemed that it was all over for him.

    An Italian mother who lost five sons during dubya dubya two walked up to his dead body, drew a pistol, shot five shots into his chest and said, “that’s for my five sons.”

    Fiat money, order to chaos, whatever, it will not end well for the global fascists.

  25. Jack January 24, 2007 10:07 pm

    Perhaps the reason why the money supply will be tightened and some deflation will result is the inevitability of OPEC setting the price of oil in EUROs. This is the reason why Iraq was invaded … to keep its oil OFF the market and discourage other countries from selling their oil in EUROs.

    The Federal Reserve’s greatest nightmare is that OPEC will switch its international transactions from a dollar standard to a euro standard. Iraq actually made this switch in Nov. 2000 (when the euro was worth around 82 cents), and has actually made off like a bandit considering the dollar’s steady depreciation against the euro. (Note: the dollar declined 17% against the euro in 2002.) see:
    http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html

  26. Robert Sczech January 24, 2007 10:39 pm

    For common people, money is the compensation for their work (producing goods and services). The money received should somewhat correspond to the economic value of the goods and services produced. Looking at the fate of these goods and services over longer periods of time, one can not escape the conclusion that all goods produced end up in garbage eventually while services provided become obsolete even faster than the decay of products due to the laws of thermodynamics. Cars last around 10-15 years, while software lasts only a few months before it becomes obsolete as a result of an updated version. Unless maintained regularly, even buildings have a lifespan of less than 100 years (the collapse of the WTC 30 years after its construction is not atypical).

    The question therefore is: why should the value of money withstand the corrosive effect of time when the goods and services for which the money was earned quickly decay in value? The decay of monetary value is in fact not only inevitable but also desirable. It is often said that the Dollar has declined in value more than 90% since 1913 - the year the Federal Reserve was created. What is rarely mentioned is that most goods produced in 1913 have zero value today representing a 100 loss of wealth. Viewed this way, it is foolish to criticize the Federal Reserve for their inflationary policies. If at all, the Fed should be criticized for not inflating fast enough. The debt crisis of today is mostly the result of too low inflation rates in the past 90 years.

    The ideal solution to the problem of inflation/deflation would be to issue a new currency having two parameters for its value: the date of issue and its denomination of monetary units. The idea being that a $20 bill from 1980 would have a smaller value than a $20 bill from 2006. Perhaps such a monetary system could be introduced after cash money is oompletely abandoned and all money becomes truly electronic. Such a monetary system would have two important advantages: It would prevent a debt crisis as debt would decay to zero over time. Secondly, it would prevent the existence of a parasitic financial/political oligarchy which owes its existence to large accumulations of financial capital. Estate taxes could be abandoned too as any excess accumulation of financial capital would dissipate in time due to the laws of entropy.

  27. Rob January 24, 2007 11:54 pm

    My estimate is that some parts of the economy will deflate, others will inflate. Individual property (housing) will deflate while some government and government related property (USD & weaponry) will inflate against gold, silver, grains and fuel since they are traded in a world market. Ultimately the government will have to install a new currency. At that time one troy ounce of gold may be at 3500USD or so. At that time the world will look different.

  28. Jarrett January 25, 2007 1:59 am

    I find it hard to imagine how a currency with nothing real backing it to give it scarcity value (the only real “value” in economics) can possibly experience deflation. Certainly not in the monetary sense. Everything ultimately reverts toward its scarcity value. For digital fiat money and government debt, that value is zero.

    Using a conspiracy theory, explicitly or implicitly (the Fed and the bankster gangsters will engineer deflation to rob you of your savings and tangible wealth, etc etc), doesn’t hold water. Conspiracies are notoriously difficult to prove, and you can’t just trot one out to explain why things will happen a certain way. It might be fun to think about but I don’t think it is realistic. For one thing, it is not just the Fed who can inflate the money supply. Every single bank out there is inflating the money supply whenever someone takes out a loan. I don’t see why it is in their collective interest to have a Depression style deflation. Banks can go under just like any other business, because banks borrow money just like everyone else. When Bank ABC’s receivables dry up due to loan defaults, it’ll be in bankruptcy court right behind Joe Debtor and for the same reasons. The bank can’t pay off its creditors (incidentally, Joe Debtor might even be a creditor himself if his retirement portfolio has Bank ABC’s bonds).

    A Depression style deflation would be hell for everyone, including the banking system. Although the banking system might get a bail-out from the Fed or the government, the Fed itself and the government will suffer a revolution at the polls or, perhaps more likely, a Revolution proper with guns and guillotines galore. Since the Fed and the government are merely a collection of incompetents who’s only concern is re-election (or re-appointment as the case may be), again I see no reason why more inflation, and eventually hyperinflation won’t be the order of the day.

    Its generally easier to perceive what is and what is to come by assuming the people in power are incompetent and disorganized, they know not what they are doing because of their wrong-headed ideas and ideologies (Keynesianism and the like). Far easier to get to the truth this way than by resorting to conspiracy theories.

    We’ll get the deflation you’re looking for after the dollar gets completely destroyed by hyperinflation, assuming of course that the government comes to its senses and re-introduces commodity backing to our money once again (it may not happen this way).

  29. Kevin January 25, 2007 2:24 am

    Kiddius Rodi wrote:

    “For example, my company sells a widget for one dollar today. Next year, Wal-mart will purchase it from my competitor, who will sell it for 90 cents. I reinvest in my production line, and am able to sell it for 80 cents the following year. In this type of environment, it is impossible for owners to pay employees ever increasing wages.”

    You have failed to take into account the financial gains from your deflation-causing retooling. You wouldn’t need to give your employees ever increasing wages (nor are they likely to ask for them) because their costs have just gone down by 20% too leaving them excess cash to save, invest in new business or splurge.

    Man’s creativity and inventiveness is the root (and natural) cause of deflation. Deliberate inflation (which is entirely unnecessary contrary to what some have written above) seeks to monetize those financial gains (They do let us keep the utilitarian gains only because, apart from a sea of new taxes, they haven’t yet figured a way to monetize those) and places those financial gains into the hands of the few at the expense of the many.

    THE IMAGINARY EVILS OF DEFLATION

    http://www.mises.org/fullstory.aspx?control=1040

  30. zephyr January 25, 2007 2:31 am

    Nice article, Michael. Interpretations are varied and interesting…some make good points, some have no idea what they are talking about to say the least. Basically, the people that run things for the most part have to know what they are doing. It is no mistake. They are wolves in sheep’s clothing, biding their time, tossing in the occassional mea culpa to make it look good.

    What is their motivation? Well, what do you get the person who has everything? The world? True global power? Makes sense. Might take awhile, but these folks aren’t stupid. Why are they purposely driving the economy to the brink of ruin, and hastily I might add? Think about it, but don’t over think it. After a period of time, events speed up exponentially. Look at any bell curve, and now look at the history of the dollar. It’s decline is speeding up exponentially. And the big guys are either hiding the numbers or fudging the info still available to the public.

    Let’s really simplify this folks. See your neighbor with the McMansion because he’s a wannabe, well these people are the real deal and they believe they’re untouchable. That can be a mighty big ego trip. Now multiply your greedy neighbor by thousands. Remember Scarface, where someone asks Pacino’s charactor what he wants? He responds, “The world, Chico and everything in it.”

    The greatest plunder in history is about to be committed, make no mistake. I remember someone told me when I was younger, “It’s always about the money”. Don’t try to overthink it, it’s about the money. Again, these people already have everything, what’s left?

    “The world, Chico, and everything in it.”

  31. Peter January 25, 2007 3:40 am

    Well if deflation kicks in, I presume that everyone who has a mortgage bigger than their home’s value will be happy to sell it and break even. Is it possible then that a “knight in shining armour” such as a NEW Fannie Mae might be funded by the Fed’s printing machine to buy out these miserable souls? The bank and its chosen ones end up with the asset and a tenant. Is communism coming to the USA through the banks? The USA surely aspires to something better.

  32. CRAZY G January 25, 2007 4:31 am

    I’ve thought about this whole thing for several years now, looking for a sign as to how it would play out…
    If, we go the inflation route, like many predict, history has shown all to often, how this will end…The destruction of the U.S. Dollar, to say the least…And the possible end game for the Federal Reserve itself….
    So my HOPE, and reserved belief, is they will not go that route, of hyperinflation
    In all probablity, they will try to dance down the middle, but unfortunately, I think it’s to late in the game for that now…
    We’re closer to a turn, into the delationary cycle than anything, I do believe, and if ‘it’ happens, it’s going to be a long process of 10-20 years…

    The summation is this;

    Hyperinflation; Destruction of the U.S. DOLLAR, the Federal Reserve, and demize of the country

    Dis-inflation; Multi-year recession, stablization of the U.S. dollar, survival of the Federal Reserve itself…

    Crazy G. believes the survival of the Federal Reserve itself, is their most preeminent thing…PERIOD…
    And, at this juncture can only be accomplished thru recession

  33. Bart Hall (Kansas, USA) January 25, 2007 5:19 am

    Money has three purposes: a) measure value; b) transpport or transfer value; c) store value. The only function significantly affected by inflation (or deflation) is the last one.

    I have my grandfather’s account logs from a century ago. He paid 50 cents for a haircut. With a generous tip I pay ten bucks. Nickel on the dollar, but my grandfather and I each knew what a haircut is worth. We each transfered the value effectively to the barber.

    He also bought a “very nice suit” for $20 — roughly an ounce of gold. You can buy a “very nice suit” today for the value in an ounce of gold. So gold stores value better than paper does. However, had my grandfather deposited that $20 in a sound bank at 3 or 4% interest the value would have been maintained just as well as the gold.

    There are abundant historic examples of long-term inflation before the ‘Fed’ era. And plenty of examples of long-term deflation. Consumer prices were lower in 1914 than they were in 1814.

    David Hackett Fischer points out (’Great Wave’1996) that long-term deflation most recently inflected to long-term inflation in 1897. Therefore, in view of my points above I contend: The existence Fed since 1913 is only associated with inflation — there is no causal relationship.

    That said, the Fed will not be able to prevent the deflation we see unfolding before our eyes.

    When the Fed ‘prints’ money it depends on borrowing to get it into circulation. That requires willing borrowers. They will not appear to anything like the degree the Fed would hope (or need), once deflationary expectations begin to gain traction.

    That same grandfather, who raised three teenagers in the Depression on $1300 per year ($21,000 in today’s money), taught me three vital things about money:

    a) We have gold because we cannot trust government (quoting Hoover, though I didn’t know it at the time).

    b) Coumpounding is very powerful, and the quality of your life will greatly depend on which side of that equation you choose.

    c) Every debt is eventually repaid, either by the borrower or the lender.

    Therin lies the ’secret.’ If people tire of debt, or become overwhelmed by it, that debt will go away. Our ‘money supply’ is defined by debt. If debt goes away, there is deflation, and there isn’t a thing the Fed can do about that.

    More importantly, if you stay generally out of debt and find reasonable pathways to ’store value,’ it really doesn’t matter whether we have inflation or deflation, as long as you know which is which and manage your affairs accordingly. The Fed is largely irrelvant, provided you pay attention.

    As Peter Bernstein points out (’Against the Gods’ 1996) the vast majority of risk can be controlled by two things: know that there is a cycle, and know roughly where you are in it. So, where are we in the cycle? Manage your affairs accordingly and stop worrying about the Fed.

  34. marketpulses January 25, 2007 6:09 am

    Michael,

    Nice piece. Unfortunately the bottom line is, that the FRB and the entire Federal Reserve system is a Fraud perpetrated upon the masses. Until or unless the people take the time and effort to inform and educate themselves on banking and monetary policy, the “Game” will continue. Abolish the Fed and 90% of the US’s problems disappear. Return to what our Founding Fathers fought and died for, independence!!

    As Henry Ford stated:

    “It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand
    our banking and monetary system, for if they did,
    I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”

    Regards,

    MarketPulses

  35. zephyr January 25, 2007 6:19 am

    Bart Hall, you make a good point, you have to be very aware of your finances and keenly aware of where the cycle is. But many astute observers cannot even do that, let alone the masses who pay no attention to where they stash their cash, except by blind faith.

    I disagree about the Fed. Don’t kid yourself, they are all powerful and set all the rules to the game of monopoly we play. You can’t be free of them if your in the game, and if you have currency in any form then you’re in the game.

    I was in Rome recently and was fascinated at how many nations steeped in much more tradition than the new world, accepted a common currency. Mark my words….the Amero is coming. If they’re talking about it, it will happen. All they have to say is the dollar is no longer solvent in its present condition, which they are working towards achieving with such monumental imbalances and debt. Already you see articles about cutting the value of the dollar in half. Now, what would that do to people’s savings? I believe there is a slow transfer of gold into private hands occurring as we speak so the rich will be all set when this occurs. But it has to be slow so as to not send the price of gold through the roof. All the while, publicly, they talk of gold as an irrelevant relic, so as to keep attention away. The mouthpiece called CNBC sees to that.

    I believe when the moment arrives it will be swift and disguised in the form of…..drumroll, please…..oh, no, not another terrorist attack!!! Tell me this makes no sense. Most sane people agree the current economic conditions can’t continue for long. People of name are giving the prerequisite warnings of the dollar’s demise, so the public can’t say they weren’t warned. Covering their tracks they are, as Yoda might say. All you need is an attack on our economic infrastrusture. That’s when gold will be THE store of value. Ask Argentinians about that.

    Then the Fed will come to the rescue. A new currency will be born and new parameters will be set. Can’t possibly happen you say….bet folks in the 30’s didn’t believe their gold would be confiscated either. Hand it in at $20/oz, then it pops to $35/oz. Nearly double. I’m starting to believe the Depression was no natural occurance because, as always, the elite prospered while everyone else suffered.

    You keep setting the table by regionalizing currency. Eventually you’ll see a worldwide currency. Impossible? That was said about the Euro. And that paper is even flimsier than the dollar. But the value is what what the owners of the boardgame say it is. Never dismiss the central banks. Why do you think the Europians had a financial meltdown drill last year? They wanted to see how a mock economic terrorist attack might play out.

    Make no mistake, something evil this way comes. Can’t tell you exactly how it will transpire, but better believe the folks that own the boardgame are re-writing the rules as we speak.

    All these things are signs along the road. They are part of the cycle now, because the cycle is manipulated more than it has ever been.

  36. Roger January 25, 2007 6:27 am

    Hillary’s election asresident could be possible if the fed were to proceed with a depression before 2007 as was done in the 30’s thus resulting in giving us the socialist FDR.

  37. skeptical January 25, 2007 7:05 am

    Bravo Michael. I have been putting these arguments forward for years now and no one seems to listen. I would like to add a couple ideas to the above posts and your article.

    1) the Federal Reserve Act had a 20 year “escape clause” period built into it that said the people could disolve the Fed IF they wanted to. The people never knew (or didn’t act on) that “escape clause”. In 1933, 20 years later (almost to the day), FDR issued the banking holiday so that he could issue “licesnses” to the banks so that they could do business with the enemy! Yes FDR amended the 1917 trading with the enemies act to include ALL citizens doing business in this country [It is interesting that the TRADING WITH THE ENEMIES ACT is where ALL license laws and registration laws come from that "mandate" that "US citizens" are required to get marriage licenses, drivers licenses, birth certificates, business licenses, register cars, deeds, etc. The banking system wanted to keep close control over and have knowledge of its assests which most definetely include the "people". But this is a legal history lesson that is best keep to another time]. The actual words in the amended trading with the enemies act was “proposed” by the Fed reserve itself (humm interesting ey). Then FDR took the gold away from the banks’ enemies (you and I) and devalued the dollar overnight and put the country on a unbacked (by gold) fiat currency (still backed by silver until 1964). This POWER GRAB clearly cemented the Feds power and gave them total control over the citizenry, the economy, and the government. It also eliminated ALL competition to the Fed (as Michael pointed out). The fed intentionally caused the great depression so that it could do these things. It caused the Great Depression by excess spending, lending, and easy credit issuance during the Roaring 20s (sound any way similar to recent years?). Don’t you know that the FED KNOWS that booms always cause BUSTS? The Fed then prolonged the depression to put through some of its other agendas. So now one ONLY has to determine “is it in the FEDS best interest to have a deflation or inflation”? If we can get beyond this nonsence about being in Joe 6 packs best interest (the fed has NEVER cared about J6P only enough to fully stripe Joe of his assets which includes his labor).

    2) Joe 6 Pack will NOT riot in the streets given Deflation OR Inflation. Riots have been scientifically engineered out of his character. He has been “schooled” to respect authority, never question his masters. This has been accomplished mostly through the Public FOOL system (google “Underground History of American Education” and read it. IT is an online ebook) but also through the use of Floride in the water system (dont call me a conspiracy theoriest just do the research). Look at the countries that have riots, these countries do not floridate their water and their compulsary school systems are not all that “great” (using OUR standards of “greatness”).

    3) Inflation is an END GAME. The fed (IMF, World Bank) wants world power. Who do you think IS the World Bank or the IMF? Did you know that the Secretary of the Treasury (the head of the IRS) is ALSO the Govenor of the IMF? The IMF, World Bank, and Fed for all practical purposes ARE one and the same entity (or at least owned by the same people and run by the same people). Do you know who the present head of the World Bank is? One of the previous members of the Pax Americana Bush neo cons - Paul Wolfowitz

    4) How are THEY going to merge the US with Mexico for the NAU? Bring the USA economy DOWN to the level of Mexico or bring Mexico’s UP to our level? How will such happen under INFLATION? How about integrating the USA with China and India in THEIR one world government scheme?

    5) All recent wars have been fought for “spreading democracy” - read making the foe country accept international banks and international big Business. Read the “confessions of an economic hit man”. This is MOST certainly the reason we went into Iraq as Saddam would not play their game. Did you notice the first thing “we” did was secure the oil fields to take Iraq oil OFF the market (as some astude commentator above stated) and the second thing “we” did was set up a central bank!

    6) The Fed banks only make money during a bust. During the boom times all member banks do is recirculate the principle that was loaned into existence (out of thin air). For the banks to actually make a “profit” they must forclose on property that someone else created with real labor.

    7) The timing of the bankrupty laws is NOT a coincedence and as Michael states DO make J6P a debtor for his life.

    8) The remarks made by Greenie to J6P that he should be taking out ARMs right BEFORE Greenie started his rate hikes is very INSTRUCTIVE. Do you really think that greenie is an idiot and didn’t know that such “advice” would hurt J6P?

    I guess I will go with that list for now.

  38. CRAZY G January 25, 2007 7:09 am

    Further comment if I may;
    The three times, in the history of our country, we have had ‘fiat currencies’; The Continental, The Green Back, and The Confederate; Each time there was a nearest rebellion against the worthless pieces of paper…
    Will it happen again??? It depends “IF” you/they believe in the Constitution ….Will the Amero ever come to pass or should we go for a Constitutional Amendment??? Maybe we should forget about that worthless scrap of paper written 200 years ago??? Seems to Crazy G, that NOBODY is following it, or questioning the violations of it anyway!!!! WHAT THE HEY!!!

  39. CRAZY G January 25, 2007 7:25 am

    Skeptical Reply:

    I had forgotten, but you are correct, it was one of the Rothchilds, who claimed to have made “UNTOLD FORTUNES”, on the backs of BANKRUPT countries….
    Back then, they financed the wars, and cleaned up the profits in the aftermath…The Federal Reserve appears to have financed a few wars of it’s own here in the U.S.
    SO THEN!!! WHEN IS PAYDAY???

  40. stephan black January 25, 2007 7:27 am

    the probabilities favour that we are about to enter a recession/depression…this happened after every war in history…we have lost the war not only in iraq but also in afghanistan..we must just comes to terms with it asap …the probabilities are overwhelming that the us dollar will lose about 25% and 225% of its value in the next 4 years…

    what to do…easy common sense..get out of any debt…own physical gold and silver also gold equities…secure a debt free cheaply mantainable place to live..get healthy…find religion…build up a network of good reliable friends..and if you have surplus funds get a swiiss annuity and invest in commodities with a preference for energy stocks like uranium coal alternative energies….hey if you are a real doom and gloomer buy a small ranch with a good water supply preferably surrounded by the amish/quakers…what to do if you are so deep in debt that you cant get out…go deeper in debt big time…get hold of a zillion credt cards and buy physical gold and silver..bury the gold and silver in some place safe…then disappear booking into monasteries self help communes survivalist communes…or slip into mexico..then in four years time emerge rich beyond your wildest dreams…pay off your debt in worthless dollars because you are honest and live happy ever after on your well gotten gains…and may god have mercy on on america and make the oil finds in utah really true so we can tell the arab oil world to stick their oil where monkeys stick their peanuts…and god please make the utah oil finds so big so big that not only america will be saved but the dollar as well…god bless america..amen

  41. stephan black January 25, 2007 7:34 am

    ooops i forgot to say…inflation can be controlled by the government …but deflation is very difficult to control…because it is in the minds of people…japan tried by low give away interest rates and failed…so yes the fed will try but wont succeed..also deflation is the other side of the coin of inflation…often they go hand in hand…but because of the huge external debt and other factors..printing is more politically palatable in the short term…the fed will go the path of the printing press…hyper inflation here we come…follwed probably by deflation in the currency which will succeed the dollar

  42. Dr Jane Karlsson January 25, 2007 7:39 am

    Robert Sczech #26, at last somebody has told it how it is. Thanks.

  43. davy January 25, 2007 7:51 am

    That final statement about whipsawing interest rates hits the mark. The intent of the Fed is to keep mortgage holders in a constant state of flux, running from ARMS to fixed rate, and back to Refi’s, each transaction generates a fee. You can’t mention deflation, without Bob Prechters name being mentioned. According to BP the consequence of deflation is hyper-inflation, but its not hard to understand the process. As deflation begins, basic material producers note falling prices, against a backdrop of credit and monetary excess, and they decide to simply hold their products off the market. We see several micro versions of this, homeowners, land owners, refuse to drop their price, and why would they agree to take 25% less when paper assets are pushing double digit growth. Land has no par value stamped on it, nor copper, or oil, or gold. Copper producers are net long the futures contracts, an unheard of reversal in the usual situation, but it at least grants them delivery. What copper producer wants to see the value of his product drop in half, and then have to deliver it! Like the Great Depression, this next depression will see plenty of money, but nothing to buy. I get my reality from the old Hollywood films, guys in top hats, and gals in sequined gowns. But it was tough to find a good Bordeaux in those days.

  44. muleskinner January 25, 2007 8:31 am

    The no child left behind act, which really leaves everybody behind, should be no child left un-brainwashed act.

    Think Hitler Jugend, Character Counts, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

    No child left behind really means indoctrinating them, erasing all undesirable historical facts, etc., so they are led to believe

    I visited the Black Hills back in 1970. I was in Deadwood to do what tourists do. There was a souvenir shop in a lower level of a downtown building. Looking to buy a souvenir, I went in to see what I could see. The young gal said to me, “Come on through this door, I’ll show you something.” Behind the doors was an old opium den, dating back to the late eighteen hundreds. Mannequins of Chinese workers with opium pipes displayed behind a few dioramas of how things really were in Deadwood.

    Such were the days in a young America. Gold mining had a few drawbacks for those who worked in those mines down in the Black Hills. The lure of the gold was more appealing than digging out paper dollars. Gold is the real deal. Paper money doesn’t have what it takes to offer any kind of value.

    You can’t deflate gold. Ten carats, fourteen carats, twenty-four of them, doesn’t matter, it remains the same.

    Al Capone (Scarface) was a benevolent ‘furniture salesman.’ He was behind housing projects in Chicago when he wielded his influence. Had more power than the city, state, or federal government back then. He was more generous too. He helped old ladies and such. His lawyer, Easy Eddie O’Hare, was gunned down for being a snitch for the IRS. His son, Butch, became a pilot in the Army Air Force during WWII, and ended up a hero. O’Hare Airport bears his name.

    When it comes to the Fed and the US gov, expect lies and obfuscation 365.25 days per year, 24/7.

    Expect them to be less than honest at all times.

    Al Capone could be trusted more than the US gov.

    A bit of history lesson, one you won’t get in the public schools.

    If you want to get left behind, go to school.

    If you want a deflated education, go to school.

    If you want a worthless economy, stay the course.

  45. HeliBen January 25, 2007 8:48 am

    Common now, a dollar’s value in 1913 being a nickle now is not hyperinflation by any stretch of the immagination, its just plain ole inflation.

    Also, there seems to be a clear problem with your argument, deflation brings about widespread defaults, unemployment, walk aways, etc, in which lent money goes poof! And the banks are then stuck with a depreciating asset (from deflation) in which they originally lent out entirely too much money for. Now how exactly does this benefit the bank or the Fed for that matter who is supposedly in the business of collecting that money plus interest back?

    I would think the Fed has one issue on their minds, inflating while attempting to keep things as “steady” as possible, either on the inflation and particularly the deflation side. Inflation benefits them and their cronies because they get to hand out new money to their buds who in turn introduce it into the population tacking on their own rates. They are the top chains and as the money makes it through our wonderful (sarcasm) fractional reserve system it is multiplied making the money buy less and less. This is where “the power” resides, not in taking a house which they loaned out a mill for plus interest that is now worth half a mill and no interest from a deflationary collapse.

    Destruction of the currency is what the Fed lives for, they will do everything in their power to make sure they can continue that.

  46. skeptical January 25, 2007 8:58 am

    HeliBen “Destruction of the currency is what the Fed lives for, they will do everything in their power to make sure they can continue that.”

    Bennie, I would have to disagree. POWER is what the Fed lives for.

    Also wouldn’t you rather have a house that has intrinsic value (whether worth 500k or 1000k) than “air” (money from nothing is worth nothing). When any loan is repaid it returns to where it came from (bookeeping entry just disappears from the books). The bank now has lower “reserves” on which to relend out, no asset to confiscate, and no interest to earn. Therefore, paying off a loan to the bank is a BAD thing. In inflation loans get paid off (of course with cheaper money but get paid off nonetheless). In deflation the loan gets discharged (just as if paid off) BUT then the bank gets the collateral and when sold (for any amount of money) they are AHEAD of the game. Banks make out Big Time in deflations, and lose Big time in inflations. THere you got the motive for deflation.

    Finally, inflationist forget (or never learned) ALL BOOMS END IN BUSTS! And of course ANY banker worth his salt knows this. Who created this latest and GREATEST BOOM of all time? Did I hear you correctly? Sir Allen Greenie (Why did the Queen of England Knight Sir Allen ? Any takers??)

  47. Administrator January 25, 2007 9:11 am

    HeliBen #45 - Interesting perspective. That a dollar is now only worth a nickel is just “plain old inflation.” Sure, but I’d rather have my dollar worth a dollar, like in the days of the gold standard.

    Also, there seems to be a clear problem with your argument, deflation brings about widespread defaults, unemployment, walk aways, etc, in which lent money goes poof! And the banks are then stuck with a depreciating asset (from deflation) in which they originally lent out entirely too much money for. Now how exactly does this benefit the bank or the Fed for that matter who is supposedly in the business of collecting that money plus interest back?

    I think the Fed is aware of the cycles of history. As much as they claim to the contrary, the cycles have not been overcome. Deflation benefits those with money - the rich cronies who run the banks, and their friends. So the poor common man loses his house for 10 cents on the dollar of what he paid - but guess what? Some rich fat cat with a wad of cash just got an incredible bargain in the foreclosure deal that he negotiated with the bank.

    I would think the Fed has one issue on their minds, inflating while attempting to keep things as “steady” as possible, either on the inflation and particularly the deflation side. Inflation benefits them and their cronies because they get to hand out new money to their buds who in turn introduce it into the population tacking on their own rates. They are the top chains and as the money makes it through our wonderful (sarcasm) fractional reserve system it is multiplied making the money buy less and less.

    I agree this is what they have been doing. But there comes an endgame point. You can’t hand out new money forever. Go down to the store with a wad full of monopoly money and try handing it out to people — see how powerful you are.

    There comes a point where inflation has to reverse course, either intentionally or unintentionally. I don’t think the Fed is stupid enough to keep trying the same play that throughout history has failed.

    Michael

  48. zephyr January 25, 2007 9:29 am

    Skeptical 37 & 46….excellent, informative, thoughtful posts!!!

    Post 37 #2 could you expand on this non-rioting theory, I’m very interested. Also, in #4 you talk of leveling the playing field. Absolutely! Why else is there no effort to secure our southern border? They want as many Mexicans integrated into our society as possible. I believe it will be a mix of debasing our economy and raising theirs in order to achieve some balance. Also, blows the doors off of any terrorist theory by leaving the border so porous. Which is further evidence 9-11 was an inside job….they don’t have any fear of leaving borders unprotected although they claim otherwise. If there was really a danger of terrorists coming in, there would be real security. All of this is so obvious if people would only take some notice. We’re almost at the same level as Canada, so no worries there. I wonder if the Amero would encompass more than the trio of the US, Mexico and Canada.

    Integrating with China or India or anyone else seems farfetched now but lots can happen in the future. I figure it will get messy at times too. It has too. Blowing up the world’s reserve currency won’t be easy but the PTB really could care less about human suffering. Witness the Depression or other nations currencies going Boom! Collateral damage anyone? Any means to get to their end.

    People tend to think such things can’t happen, as if we reached some sort of economic utopia where disastors are a thing of the past or only happen in third world impovershed nations. That will make it easier because the people will not be on the guard.

  49. justin January 25, 2007 9:38 am

    first, we are clearly seeing deflation in the housing market, does the fed care, of course, but since housing has been on a stratospheric roll, this deflation will just bring it back down to its norm where it belongs, and that’s just the way cycles operate. however i don’t think the fed would be happy to see deflation spreading into a broad spectrum of assets.
    second, i think it’s hard to have a dollar collapse, because many other central banks are printing at a faster rate than the US, and secondly for the dollar to collapse you have to be able to sell to someone. since china and Japan and a couple of other export dependent nations hold the vast majority of US$, it’s hard to imagine that they would try and outsell each other, and at that stage who would be buying the volume of paper necessary to create a collapse?
    capital controls would also be enforced long before a collapse occurred and the system would just jolt, but not collapse.
    just my thoughts.
    Obviously no one likes to hear of people losing, but if you don’t overleverage, get fixed rates and hang on, you will at least have a roof over your head, and one day you will come out on top.

  50. skeptical January 25, 2007 9:44 am

    zephyr Says: “Skeptical 37 & 46….excellent, informative, thoughtful posts!!! Post 37 #2 could you expand on this non-rioting theory, I’m very interested.”

    While this is just my “theory” I have researched Floride and its origination in our water system for years now. I have found out that Hilter used flouride in his concentration camps because he found out it made the “detainees” docile. Hummm have you ever seen a more docile population than the USA? Europe no longer uses flouride in their water systems. Neither does MOST of the “developed” world. Flouride is an industrial pollutant produced from smelting aluminum. THere has NEVER been ANY research that shows that ingesting flouride does ANYTHING positive for teeth (much less for general health).

    As far as the public fool system I have seen it first hand with my son (before I homeschooled him). It is ALL about AUTHORITY and forcing that authority on the kids (and of course dumbing them down and boring them to death to kill their creative and inventive natures). They learn NOT to question those in charge. The public fools also STRESS “good citizenship” which in the real world means “pay your taxes” and DONT EVER question your government. Look at the Iraq war. How many times have you heard drummed into your head NOT to question Bushy because we are at WAR and questioning YOUR president is UNpatriotic. And of course then there is the all too often cited “I am against the war but I am WITH the troops” . Hey guys without all those “troops” there COULD NOT BE ANY WAR! Those “troops” are enablers (sorry for all those patriots who feel they joined the service to protect our “country” (the US is just a corporatation like walmart) and our “freedom” (freedom to be consumers and line the pockets of big business)).

    When was the last time we saw any “protests” in this country? I mean REAL protests? The early 70s. A lot of flouride has been ingested since then.

  51. kia January 25, 2007 9:55 am

    Observing the world bond markets in 2006, it is apparent that the Euro has surpassed the Dollar. Thus the “pool” which the dollars are dumped into is shrinking. On March 26, 2007 the Iranian Bourse is due to start selling oil in Euros. Saddam proposed this in 2000, and the US invaded to put a stop to the threat. If Russia joins Iran, the US may face a Sisyphusian task of trying to roll back the Euro’s takeover as the world’s reserve currency.

    Inflation and deflation act the increase or decrease the size of credit bubble. Banks loan it out in the good times, and foreclose in the bad times. The question is given the unprecedented level of leverage represented by all the “structured finance” products in it’s myriad of forms, derivatives, credit-swaps, CDOs, etc. will the banking/insurance industry (one and the same) be able to swallow all the assets? With Chinese central banks holding nearly 1 trillion US dollars the natural answer is that we may all wake up with Chinese landlords.

    Yesterday, January 24, 2007 the US dollar hit a 14 year low against the British pound, on the same day that the Dow Jones Industrial hit a new historical high. Simply put bond investors can get a better return investing in pounds, whereas stock investors feel that their best return is in US equities. To compete for bond borrowers the Federal Reserve, which is neither Federal nor does it have any reserves, will have to raise interest rates. Raising interest will put downward pressure on corporate profits, and have profound implications for the real estate bubble, inflated by a doubling of the money supply over the last seven years.

    Ford just chalked up its worst quarterly loss in its 103 year history. Worldwide overproduction of vehicles has contributed to a deflationary environment. Worldwide overproduction of goods ultimately has trouble finding solvent customers among the masses drowning in a debt financed sea of liquidity. Currently the Inflation/Deflation battle appears to be headed for Stagflation, reduced demand growth in the face of price inflation.

    Historically the “life cycle” of all fiat currency is:

    Inflation -> Deflation -> Hyperinflation -> Martial Law

    The Fed reserve is not the first Central Bank, but it’s fourth, the demise of the previous three all related to the excess printing of money. The huge fortunes in this country are made during the bad times not the good times. As an example, the Kennedys were involved in boot legging during Prohibition. One Prohibition ended they laundered their profits by buying up mortgages for pennies on the dollar, reaping the rewards of WWII which contributed significantly to lift America out of the Depression. Another example is Anheuser-Busch, which after surviving Prohibition, which put most small brewers out of business, grew to dominate the industry. Inflation allows wealth to be eroded slowly; deflation allows it to be confiscated quickly.

    When the Treasury approached the Federal Reserve in the midst of the Depression for a loan the Federal Reserve demanded collateral on the loan. The Treasury offered up the American public as that collateral. So anyway you cut it Americans are on the hook for what ever the Federal Reserve does monetarily. Monetary policy is like a rudder on a ship, as long as it is wielded in an inflationary pattern it can be used to steer the economy, but if deflation sets in, the rudder becomes useless. This simple fact is the unspoken credo of the Federal Reserve “INFLATE OR DIE”.

  52. the stranger January 25, 2007 9:55 am

    Don’t know how you write so many excellent articles Michael, thanks. I write something half coherent I’m spent for weeks. Too many great posts to respond to. I agree with zephyr, generally at least, on the likely hood of a gigantic distraction waiting in the wings. Be it increased war, false flag, something.

    When the Fed was new, the relationship between Gov, the Fed, and the Elite was complementary (in their favor). And as time marched on it moved from complementary to symbiotic to virtually one-and-the-same; as skeptical points out (skep, many excellent posts lately by the way).

    Something I want to try and express, and get some feedback, is that since the Fed/Gov has morphed, I think the objectives of the united entity are more complex (although I agree the goal is world dominance). I don’t see the Fed inducing deflation for the simple purpose of gathering in property, for example, at this stage in the game. There are powerful competing entities in this giant worldwide FX game.

    Actually, I no longer see them in control; this thing has a life of its own now. As George Ure points out his morning, the Russia-India stealth fighter project and recent nuclear ventures are utterly mind-blowing. The geopolitical maneuverings worldwide are as stunning as they are frightening. Look at the Middle East where economic interests of Russia, China, Venezuela, et al may have already checkmated the board. An attack on Iran could change our world overnight (back to zephyrs drumroll) shutting down the transport of oil through the straight; I can’t imagine our economy withstanding that blow. And yet, everything is lined up. Do any number of triggers set off an economic slide, or does an economic slide call in the pseudo-triggers.

    Did any of you notice in the State of the Onion speech, the rapid fire half dozen of terrorist attacks thwarted? I remember recognizing at least half of them; weak, muddy incidents that reeked of hyperbole. It’s beyond amusing to me now; the PlutocRats up and down, clapping for a naked, lying man. And soon the keys will be thrown to the Devopublicans. Beyond embarrassing.

    I may not post for days. I’m headed to muleskinner’s with my Jackson Brown CDs to drink homemade beer till I can’t see straight.

  53. WL January 25, 2007 10:09 am

    Great post and wonderful feedback. I’m so grateful to see the level of debate being raised. Good work all of you!

    I think gold and silver are absolutely necessary regardless of how we experience the inflation/deflation situation. Unfortunately they are a tough sell to people who are not focused on these issues. We need much further education, elucidation and conversation about our predicament, how it came about and what to do about it. There is so much more education needed to get to our general population.

    I think we especially need to get silver into more hands. In Mexico a citizen can now put savings away in silver at certain banks, take loans out on it, if necessary and keep the silver by paying the loan. If this becomes popular it will indeed strengthen that country to have silver circulating everywhere. Getting paid in silver is getting well paid. They’ve also arranged it so the price of the legal tender Libertad coin can go up with the price of silver, but not fall when silver falls in price. This is very good. The public at large cannot be speculating with their savings. This all was done by a civic organization lobbying the politicians. How important to have laws that are actually for the benefit of the great unwashed public!

    It is very easy to find the value of the one ounce silver Libertad coin on any given day. It is reported in newspapers and posted at banks. It could as easily be reported on radio and television if there is sufficient interest. This is appropriate for Mexico, which is one of the largest silver producers in the world. Why should they export the commodity wholesale while suffering from hundreds of thousands of percent loss on their legal tender paper? Why indeed? Mexicans know what hyperinflation, or at least devaluation is.

    I would like to see us do something similar for popularizing the precious metals and getting them into people’s hands. In the US we are constantly divided by superficial bipartisan politics and not allowed to deal with anything substantial.

  54. kia January 25, 2007 10:18 am

    Stranger,

    As a home brewer of twenty years I raise a toast to you and muleskinner.

    I think the PTB’s goal is to wipe out the wealth of the middle class so that they have no other choice but to obey. The method of doing this is to turn the Americans lifestyle into “Rent to Own”.

    As an example I give you the utility model. When you want electricity the utility tells you that they will have to build a power plant. Over the 27 year period that it takes for the utility to depreciate the asset (which is still valuable at the end of the period) the utility charges you to buy electricity, but at the end of the period who owns the power plant? The utility of course.

    Applying this model to the banking industry, “counselors” will contact you once you fall far enough behind in mortgage payments. They will politely suggest that in order to avoid foreclosure, that you should transfer title to them, in return they will renegotiate the terms of your loan into a 40, 50 or 100 year term (whatever you can afford) during which they let you live there until it is paid off and they kick you out and rent it to some other family.

  55. the stranger January 25, 2007 10:38 am

    Kia, you’re dead on. I’ve gotten a lot from you posts lately too. You know, so many avid reads here; different backgrounds, different locations, various perspectives. The debate, discussion, argument is priceless. Even when we read the same news or books, we must apply it to current events – historical current events – and do the best we can.

    Often here, people have asked or stated, “that information needs a recommendation” but that is actually impossible. Everyone is unique; you got to take it all in and make your own call. That’s my answer also, to those that say, “you can’t eat gold” or “inflation, deflation, either way we’re fucked.” True and True, but misses the point; how you can use this information to make rational, informed decisions is what it is all about.

    I forgot – don’t where the skinner’s at. Better start making my own beer!

  56. Shankar January 25, 2007 10:40 am

    I do post my thoughts on stock markets at http://www.uscommoditiestrader.com/3.html

    In current market conditions even though text book deflation comes it is not visible in numbers. It is going to be a stagflation. Prices will go up and consumption will come down due to extreme liquidity. Why extreme liquidity WAR Spending, Total dependency on US Consumers by World.

    No solution in sight yet. Recently Ben Bernanke commented that he wanted to have a flexible CPI Calculation because he thinks people switch from expensive items to cheap items. What an idea? So if he is successful, there will not be any inflation in the reported numbers.

    For same reason we will not see deflation in numbers. Period.

    We will see continuous increase in prices and lesser consumption but economic numbers indicates every thing is great.

    So what do we do? Just follow the technical analysis on Stocks and trade accordingly.

  57. Anthony January 25, 2007 11:49 am

    Iam not sure the banks are so clever as to plan ahead to make money from mortgages in a deflation. Remember that many mortgages out there don’t have enough house value to cover them in the case of a default…and plenty of those are coming. So, again, how smart are the banks?
    Anthony

  58. Vangel January 25, 2007 11:55 am

    I think that the deflation argument is one of the stupidest one can think of.

    First, no Bankruptcy Reform Act can change the fact that when people owe much more than they have in the way of assets they will default. You can’t put them all borrowers in jail but those borrowers can support political candidates that make an attack on the Federal Reserve System’s monopoly over money creation.

    Second, the major beneficiaries from a deflationary environment will be non-voting foreigners who have plenty of cash, interest income and bonds that are maturing. What do you think that the response will be when Americans see their assets being transferred to foreign hands?

    Third, the financial system has way too much leverage and it doesn’t take much in the way of defaults to push it into insolvency. Given the fact that the Federal Reserve Note is a piece of coloured paper that is being issued by that financial system I do not think it likely that holders of FRNs will retain their confidence in the fiat currency.

    Forth, in a deflationary environment governments can’t operate and meet their obligations. History shows that the fiat currency of a nation that has a negative trade balance and is run by a government that cannot raise enough revenue to keep operating doesn’t do very well. As the nation is starved of capital its economy collapses and the currency loses purchasing power because demand for it falls.

    That brings me to the last point. The fact that deflation is inevitable is obvious. But that does not mean that a contraction of the supply of money and credit will bring more purchasing power for the currency. In fact, it is likely to signal that creditors and trading partners are no longer willing to exchange goods and services for coloured pieces of paper being issued by a failing financial system of a country with a weakening economy. The deflationists have been telling everyone that if they were only patient the inevitable gain in purchasing power will make them rich only to see their currency holdings lose real purchasing power as governments and central banks have done what they always do; depreciate the currency by expanding the supply of money and credit. The irony is that the inevitable contraction is likely to bring with it a total destruction of what is left of the deflationists’ purchasing power.

    I suggest that the deflationists stop trying to be too clever and imagine a world that does not exist and to purchase gold as a hedge against being wrong.

  59. chuck January 25, 2007 12:06 pm

    Agree with Shankar about stagflation.

    How does the increase of U.S. population
    enter into all the calculations? In 43
    years the U.S.A. is supposed to have 400
    million folks (up from 300 mil now).

    It seems that more money will somehow have
    to get into their hands.

  60. zephyr January 25, 2007 12:11 pm

    Skeptical, that’s some wild stuff and it makes absolute sense to me. As i’ve said repeatedly, these people are smart. I’m sure they’re on top of “control” programs. I’ve always wondered why we’re so damn docile. I’ve attributed it to a combination of many things but this one really intrigues me.

    I for one must have been a weird kid because I drank very little water. Even now, I just drink the bottled stuff. I wouldn’t attribute it just to this but I’ve pretty much always questioned what was being thrown at me, especially if it didn’t make sense. Just because you’re in a position of authority doesn’t mean I have to follow you if I know you’re wrong. And thank you, I’ve always felt like I was very much alone in not supporting the troops. That whole being against the war but supporting the troops always made no sense to me. It absolves one of all personal responsibility….mob mentality if you will.

    While I believe some of the troops have honorable intentions and are trying their best to do good, there are an equal number of scumbags who like hurting others who are “different”, who dig torture and are just general degenerates. Muleskinner posted something recently about some soldiers person stories that would make your fingernails pop off. I respect the troops that have been there and refuse to go back because they have come to understand what we as a nation are doing is wrong.

    Thanks skeptical, this line of thinking follows what Dr. Jane has talked about….mind control. Actually, I would be curious as to what the good doctor thinks.

  61. Administrator January 25, 2007 12:15 pm

    Vangel #57 - Some interesting points in there, but I’m not sure what your final position is. First you say,

    I think that the deflation argument is one of the stupidest one can think of.

    But then at the end you say,

    That brings me to the last point. The fact that deflation is inevitable is obvious.

    Ummm…that doesn’t really make a lot of sense.

    However, I do agree with you on several points.

    #1 - The law won’t stop people from declaring bankruptcy, but it will certainly slow them down. Why do you think they passed the law in the first place. But yes, there is such a candidate you speak of, and his name is Ron Paul

    #2 - What do you think that the response will be when Americans see their assets being transferred to foreign hands?

    Um…what the response been for the past 40 years (at least), which is how long this transfer has been going on? The response has been a huge, collective, sleepy yawn.

    #3 - I’m not sure about this, but you may be right. I don’t claim to know the future, but I’m doing my best to give people alternatives to think about

    #4 - This has been shown through history, you are correct, but the dollar occupies a different position due to its status as the senior currency. Everything now is fiat, not just the dollar.

    #5 - People have to own gold, but not through gold shares or ETFs or futures. If there is a destruction of the financial system — which I certainly agree is possible — those are just paper assets also, and won’t do you much good.

    Michael

  62. Paul January 25, 2007 12:33 pm

    Michael,

    Re the “private” federal reserve. This is true legally, but not de facto. The banks which own the fed are entitled to 6% dividends on their capital (in effect a preferred stock holding), and profits above that amount are paid into the Treasury. The beneficial owner of the fed is the U.S. Government. The Government also has policy control, since the private bankers have less than half the votes on the open market committee, with the rest belonging to political appointees. d

  63. Pinatubo January 25, 2007 12:36 pm

    One final note. I do not agree with Michael that we risk serious deflation. Mostly modern countries do not have deflationary depressions. With currency traded freely and not backed by anything except the good will of central banks, they give us “inflationary depressions.” So that is my prediction if things start to get dicey. For now, though, We need the Chinese and Japanese and Saudi’s and they need us. And there is still time for the country to manage itself more responsibly. Even serious Republicans are sickened by what they see in Washington.

    I have one other thought. We’ve had delusional people at the head of government off and on for almost 30 years. And delusional people put them in power. I find myself less and less tolorant of Christian Evangelicals who look at government through a very warped prism. Bush could never have won without them. It’s sad that to get elected, leaders have to pander to the craziest voter blocks in the country.

    Jeff Kassel

  64. 3rdworlder January 25, 2007 1:14 pm

    It is no nations to interest to see deflation or hyperinflation of the dollar. The average commodity trader will try to gravitate towards an Iranian Bourse (if it ever comes to existence) without any national or patriotic interest. Having played all the war games scenarios for posturing purposes, I would be surprised that the Fedsters havent played out all the economic wargames too.

    The global Government is not a one day affair - it has been in ascendance since the Bretton woods days albeit making slow progress. A simple case to prove the point -Furniture making in Trenton was relocated to Gary and to Qingyuan. Whatever made a company move from Trenton, did the same to move from Gary i.e. auspicies of the Global government.

    I believe that Global monetary inflation is stage managed by the Fed (not the governers but their puppetmasters).

    The current stage is an intermediary play. If there is a global depression (dont just think US. forget China’s 1T and google for treadmilling dollars), you will see the forces in action in the name of “global interests”. You and I will be willing to acceed to this demand to save our ‘children’s’ future and our own respective addictions. We will be promised that this course will have minimal impact to the US (or integrated North America with special provisions for the legacy nations and hell with the conquered nations). Commodities and other resources would be consolidated. After a brief hiatus, China will be shippint their new 3240p (latest model) super HDTVs to the New world for some new global (fiat) currency (we know better this time).

  65. muleskinner January 25, 2007 1:47 pm

    I am going to have to build a hospitality room, hire a couple of barmaids, and quadruple my production.

    I want some beer too.

    Bock

    I hunt down wild hops out in the woods. Heading up to Bear Creek sometime tomorrow.

    My stock is rising on a down day.

    Thanks for the kind words.

    Oil fell 1.09 today, back down to 54 and pennies.

    What happened to that 75 dollar oil?

    Three dollar gas and diesel fuel has taken its toll on consumers. ‘Over production’ translates to a decrease in gasoline and diesel fuel consumption.

    The real deflation is a contraction of money in people’s pockets. Period

  66. charley January 25, 2007 1:57 pm

    Just finished Michael Hudson’s rewrite of Super Imperialism. Chapter 15 details how the Fed, after Bretton Woods, together with the complicity of the IMF and World Bank, et al, took us from a creditor nation with all the gold in 1949, to a $44 trillion bankrupt nation with a completely fiat currency in 2007. He calls the system that has evolved the Treasury Bill Standard, where the world lives under the threat of whatever happens to all our dollars that are covering the globe. Our inflation is now worldwide, so there should be some fireworks soon. The Fed can’t not inflate, that’s all they have left. Gresham’s Law should do the rest…..

  67. Rob January 25, 2007 2:31 pm

    When faith in the fiat money system collapes either through inflation or deflation one wants natural, true, original, eternal money. Since faith in the cleverly organised but most wicked fiat system will be at least severely shaken gold and silver will again become natural to have. Right now it is most unnatural to store or invest in it looking at the comparative numbers. This will change vastly. Gold and silver will surprise many, many, many people. This is so because mostly people somehow or other tend to have great faith in what governments say, especially in the so called democracies.
    By the way, I personally think inflation will come our way since people need to eat and drink, live in a house and move from one place to another. And the other governments will take the worthless USD because their own currencies will also be junk. And besides, they don’t want to give up power. So, inflation it will be is my guess, with some sectors and short periods of deflation.

  68. Breck January 25, 2007 3:10 pm

    Hi all. Some great posts!
    Have y’all ever had epiphanies? They’re sort of like “It’s the economy, stupid!”, as in ‘back to the forest instead of the trees’. I had one of those this past week or so.

    I think I got alot of my accumulated thoughts that finally jelled into this epiphany from reading The Fourth Turning. Which is all about seeing history and time as cyclical instead of linear. Yogi Berra stuff: “It’s deja vu all over again!”.

    Anyway, I’m trying to see if I can put this epiphany into works that make any sense. Alot of it revolves around the idea that the United States is really not all that old. The average person thinks that 1929 was ancient history, whereas in the view of the authors of Fourth Turning, 1929 was the last time that America faced what they call a Crisis Era.

    In between then and now we have had what they term a full saeculum of four periods, which have analogies to the four seasons. I won’t get into all the details, you can read the book (or you already have).

    The thing is that the majority of Americans have never known anything but the kind of life style and standard of living we have had since the last High Cycle starting in roughly 1947-51. It is just not in their “world view” that the United States could become radically different from what they have experienced. We think we are exempt from the kind of catastrophes that other nations go through (maybe that is why Katrina freaked out so many people?).

    What in fact is going on now, and will be going on for some years to come, is a radical kind of change. The Fourth Turning authors even intimate that such Crises are necessary because people have this tendency to just get complacent. Some of y’all above have pointed out how average folks have no clue about what is going on with the destruction of civil liberties, the destruction of the economy, and the imperialism that is going on overseas.

    This kind of somnamulism can’t go on indefinitely. These Crises, Fourth Turnings wake people up. It’s like saying to Americans, ‘Hey it’s time you joined the rest of the human race!’.

    It is difficult for me sometimes to believe that I am living in one of the most important times in recent history. Huge changes are coming. Some that we cannot even see yet. Others that we are seeing now.

  69. skeptical January 25, 2007 4:28 pm

    I found the quote I was looking for earlier. When Sir Allen speaks of bubbles and his inability to recognize them (yea right) don’t beleive him.

    I know greenie created and pumped up the real estate bubble on purpose because …..

    “In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happened, you can bet it was planned that way.”—Franklin Delano Roosevelt

  70. ostrich January 25, 2007 5:35 pm

    breck -sp -somnambulism

  71. kia January 25, 2007 5:41 pm

    Dear All,

    Rogue Wave Anyone?

    http://www.thesanitycheck.com/Blogs/BudBurrellsBlog/tabid/84/EntryID/557/Default.aspx

    Surf’s up for naked shorting.

    Charge that Wave.

  72. kia January 25, 2007 5:53 pm
  73. Administrator January 25, 2007 5:55 pm

    Breck #68 - Excellent post. Thank you. Yes, the US is still very young. Two years ago I was living in Taiwan, which if you recall, is where the Nationalist Chinese ran away to when they lost the civil war to the Communists on the mainland of China in 1949.

    Talk about a long history - that civilization has 5,000 years of history and man, they have seen it all. Control rises and falls and is passed back and forth from the intellectuals to the barbarians to the military and the best the little people can do is try to stay out of the way. Great things and terrible things happen simply from being in the wrong place (or the right place) at the wrong / right time.

    I know a family from Taiwan who were rich bankers in China prior to 1949 and lived in the lap of luxury. Ooops. That was the wrong time to be a rich banker in China! So they fled to Taiwan where they had nothing - had to start from scratch again. It is a hard life, and anything can happen, but most Americans — me included — feel some sense of immunity from world events.

    I was watching the news tonight about the chaos in Iraq - the destroyed cities, the terror, the mayhem. Once upon a time that was the most beautiful, civilized, advanced place in the world. Times change, things happen and America is not immune. That kind of destruction will no doubt visit us on our shores too, but the tragedy of it is that it is preventable.

    I write these articles in the hope of waking people up - I try to make them straight and easy to understand, entertaining, too. I hope it does some good, and I’m not just preaching to the choir. That is also why I support Ron Paul as well. He’s the only sane leader around.

    I read the Forth Turning - yes it is a great book. Thank you for jogging my memory.

    Michael

  74. kia January 25, 2007 6:06 pm

    Michael,

    dumb question, what code is required to make a link (i.e, your Ron Paul link?

    Thanks

  75. the stranger January 25, 2007 7:07 pm

    Breck, does the fourth wave line up with this one?
    http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/cycle.html

  76. muleskinner January 25, 2007 7:24 pm

    “Nobody goes there anymore, it’s too crowded” - Yogi Berra

    My favorite Yogi quote.

    hyperlink

    Jane, I will expound on the ufo search info I gave you. One night, I looked up into the sky and noticed a dim light moving at a phenomenal rate of speed. It wasn’t a satellite, you know what they look like.

    I have a relative who is a retired Boeing employee (programmer). I explained to him about what I saw and he said the dim light was probably heat. He probably had/has information about craft other than space vehicles that can travel at speeds at a much higher speed than the current commercial jets or military aircraft.

    I’ll write a bit more later. No time now.

  77. Sapiens January 25, 2007 7:44 pm

    Michael,

    I read your article with great interest; I contemplated not responding since usually I feel that sharing the Truth with people for free is a waste of my time. My Grand-Master always said: “It is unfortunate that knowledge is rarely valued when effortlessly acquired; therefore, share and give freely of your knowledge and time to those willing to pay for it.”

    The issue is not whether there will be deflation or not, the Austrian School has already pointed out why there has to be deflation and made the case for it. More specifically you can begin your understanding by reading Huerta de Soto’s treatise here: http://www.mises.org/books/desoto.pdf

    Second, you can better understand how private bank notes acquired the status of currency in the English common law countries by the judicial precedents as explained in this treatise by John Kutyn’s, Nature of Money, here: http://www.ces.org.za/docs/NofM.pdf

    By reading the above you will internalize the necessary knowledge that will help you deal with the Banker’s Secret (Fractional Reserve Banking) and live comfortably through the coming economic tribulation. As a reformed usurer I can tell you this, the power of the bankers hinges on the ignorance of the masses and their inability to have fair and just access to the Rule of Law. The lawyers will make sure only those with the minimum financial resources to pay their services get by unscathed.

    Now the question, all ask is this: “How can I protect myself?”

    The answer in my opinion is quite simple, really; first, know thy self. Second, make sure you are safely seisin of your place of abode. Third, have enough contacts for access to your necessary items of sustenance and personal security. Fourth, maintain sufficient liquid assets in your possession to trade for your necessities for an extended period of time.

    If you must hold equities, do so in enterprises that service essential human needs. All you have to do is to study the history of the last few hundred years to see who prospered in difficult times.

    Cheers,

    -Sapiens

  78. muleskinner January 25, 2007 8:11 pm
  79. godraz January 25, 2007 9:50 pm

    As airtight suggested about inflation, that there are two types, monetary and price inflation, and how it would help to speak more precisely about them in discussion, I also think it makes sense to suggest the same about deflation. One is asset or price deflation and the second is psychological. (Worth noting, although I could be wrong, this psychological deflation used to be dependent on a contraction in the money supply when it used to be specie. What I’m thinking now about the psychology of deflation in our pure inflationary fiat based monetary system is a reverse syndrome — call it the “pushing on a string syndrome.”)

    While asset deflation is pretty straight forward to understand and see as it unwinds, I tend to suspect that psychological deflation, while somewhat readily understandable too and see as well once underway, the devil is in the details. What I’m suggesting is that it can be a chicken and egg sort of problem: which one begets the other?

    It seems clear that eventful moments, like the 1929 stock market crash, brought about the ensuing psychological effects, which contributed to the persistence of both kinds of deflation. But what of hard to pin point moments whereby deflationary expectations take root in our psyches and this leads into an deflationary asset/price reality. I pose this idea in response to what Mish suggested, i.e. that deflation is as much a psychological mindset as a losing value asset one.

    Further, I guess what I’m wondering is, baring some clear event — be it a stock mrkt. crash, currency collapse, break out of a war (say in the middle east, well beyond what we are witnessing in Iraq and around its fringes today), or perhaps a sudden massive derivatives unraveling — does anyone think it possible for a corrosive psychological shift to precede and potentially herald an unforeseen deflationary period?

    I’m thinking it is entirely possible for such a scenario to occur, yet it would also take rather extraordinary circumstances and compounding influences for it to gather steam. What might they be like?

    Well, what about this discussion we are having here? And not just about deflation, but the whole array of concerns expressed about the financial state of the US and the world and all the fiscal imbalances outstanding, as well as all the other threats looming to our well being; from the endless war on terror, ecological and climatic distresses, endless political gridlock and stupidity, peak oil and energy/resource diminishment, to name just some of the most obvious. I’m wondering if it is not possible, despite all the hype to the contrary, we may be undergoing such a profound but subtle psychological shift as we speak.

    In general our human prospects could not be bleaker. We do in fact live in and on a finite planet, yet mankind persists in believing that we will pull off any and all sort of needle threading miracles to save us from all of the above outlined harsh realities, never mind any number of unmentioned ones as well as unforeseen ones that are more than likely to appear. Suffice it to say, more of the same false hope of control over our destiny as presently arranged and planned is growing more and more absurd. That’s precisely why we are here celebrating the glorious future that awaits us.

    But to return to my train of thought with respect to this psychological aspect of deflation and how it might take root under our fiat system, particularly as it relates to the US, is it not possible that the combined downers of our hurting middle class and their stagnant wages, poor job prospects or outright loss, medical expense squeeze, housing value slump or outright loss, a war quagmire in which there is no reasonable resolution, indeed, a WoT without end, etc., that all of this could slowly yet irrevocably foretell of a deflationary psychology in the works?

    I consider that it is. I’m not saying that it will lead to such a result as presented, but I can imagine how it might not take a major shock to the system, just more of the same bleak creeping story lines, to herald, if not a full blown deflationary period, one of profound stagflation (particularly here in the US). Is this enough to push us over the edge? Perhaps not. But I think it worth considering.

    With all this in mind, and to answer to Micheal’s original question, “Can the Fed Prevent Deflation? Does it want to?” I’ll offer that they all (the whole cabal of global financial power players that be) would like to try to do so and will all attempt to keep this economic poker game alive. However, I’m of the opinion, baring an array of miracles that I don’t foresee happening, that once the endgame of our credit inflation based fiat economics hits just one solid wall of any number of earthly realities, the resulting catastrophic deflationary fall will be more than just an economic one.

    One way or another I guess that most of will get to see what happens when the SHTF. It’s not as if it ain’t flying around already, it’s just that the fan hasn’t broken yet.

    As for recommended reading, has anyone here read David Ehrenfeld’s “The Arrogance of Humanism”? If you haven’t, all I can say is you should.

    Thanks are in order for Michael and everyone else here for inspiring me to try and think and write something more encompasing, and I hope thought provoking, than what I first posted above. /mea culpa.

  80. kia January 26, 2007 12:49 am

    Godraz,

    WRITE ON!

    Peace

  81. FCT January 26, 2007 2:03 am

    We don’t need grand conspiracites or “secret cabals” to explain what lies ahead in our economic future. Monetary deflation is unlikely because it will not help bankers. Banks earn their keep through transaction fees and interest charges. Monetary inflation allows them to earn a living while deflation reduces their earnings.

  82. zephyr January 26, 2007 5:15 am

    Kia 71, any idea what this guy is intimating about? Is he on the up and up? Thoughts, anyone? Cuz any possibility of a major scandal that might finally wake the populace has me salivating. Of course, a bucket of chicken wings gets me salivating too. But, I digress. Of course, as one poster notes, any such revelation could bring severe disruption to alot of our basic services. Well, at least I would get brief satifaction in being able to say “I told you so!!!” That would be brief though, for soon I would be looking for my neighbor’s dog so I might have a good meal that same night.

  83. muleskinner January 26, 2007 5:23 am

    ‘I hate prejudice and anyone who is’

    I hate thinking and anyone who does.

    The Hindenburg… Deflation… Hindenburg… Deflation… Hindenburg

    Ship of Fools

    Why do you rob banks? “Because that’s where the money is” - ‘Slick’ Willie Sutton

    Actually, he never said it. Something I didn’t know.

    “Why did I rob banks? Because I enjoyed it. I loved it. I was more alive when I was inside a bank, robbing it, than at any other time in my life. I enjoyed everything about it so much that one or two weeks later I’d be out looking for the next job. But to me the money was the chips, that’s all.”

    “Go where the money is… and go there often.”

    Banks experienced deflation after Willie paid them a visit.

  84. CRAZY G January 26, 2007 6:45 am

    Kia # 51, I think you comments are excellent…

    You did make a statement however, that I’m not entirely sure of;
    ================================================
    “”When the Treasury approached the Federal Reserve in the midst of the Depression for a loan the Federal Reserve demanded collateral on the loan. The Treasury offered up the American public as that collateral”"
    =================================================
    Please verify this..”"BUT”" I think they offered up the GOLD, that they had just confiscated, from the American people….

  85. muleskinner January 26, 2007 7:02 am

    Jane, to get back to you on the alien conundrum, a picture appeared in a local newspaper almost forty years ago now. Imprints were in the sod of what was believed to be a ufo. The photo of the imprints were on the front page of the newspaper.

    A few teenagers from a nearby town were on a joy ride that night. Their car failed, wouldn’t start, the battery went dead. Very soon afterwards, they saw the ufo.

    On October 28, 2006, a conservative newspaper printed a story on a nine year old farm kid who allegedly shot a nine-foot alien stealing pigs on his father’s farm.

    Boy shoots alien

    I was on a camping trip in the summer of 1969 with some friends. When you camp, you tend to look up at the stars. While viewing stars, you come to know by eidetic memory which ones are where they are. I noticed at one point two stars that were close together that I had never before observed. I mentioned the unusual arrangement and pointed to them. Suddenly, one of the stars began to move.

    I am still skeptical. If an alien craft were to travel throughout interstellar space, the logistics needed to do so baffles the imagination. It is hard to believe that beings would be able to sustain themselves for the time period needed to travel those distances. It would be one heckuva spaceship.

    However, when I think of the marvel of man, maybe aliens can do it.

    I know, I’m a fool. “Better to remain silent and thought a fool, than to speak up and remove all doubt.”

  86. CRAZY G January 26, 2007 7:09 am

    “”"”IT ALL BOILS DOWN TO THIS “”"

    THE FEDERAL RESERVE WILL DO “ALL” IN IT’S POWER TO PROMOTE, AND SOLIDIFY IT’S “FRANCHISE” OVER THE AMERICAN PEOPLE AND IT’S GOVERNMENT

    In other words, they do what ever it takes to keep doing what ever they are or have been doing….

    RATIONALIZE THAT, AND YOU’VE GOT THE ANSWER TO WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN

  87. muleskinner January 26, 2007 7:14 am

    Make that a sixteen year old teenager. I need to be redacting more.

  88. skeptical January 26, 2007 7:16 am

    KIA “================================================
    “”When the Treasury approached the Federal Reserve in the midst of the Depression for a loan the Federal Reserve demanded collateral on the loan. The Treasury offered up the American public as that collateral””
    =================================================
    Please verify this..””BUT”” I think they offered up the GOLD, that they had just confiscated, from the American people….”

    I am not sure which statement you are looking to be verified but I will herein take a look at the birth certificate that STARTED AFTER the trading with the ememies act that was amended in 1933 to include the people as the ememies. I will try now to explain it:

    When you were born, Your Mother had this name in mind for you . .let’s say it’s John Doe. The nurse came in to get the Birth Certificate (a “certificate is a negotiable instrument; see Certi & fi-duc(e) iary & fi-cat(e) iary) -SIGNED- for the purpose of “creating the FICTION (the one that is regulated and works in commerce as government can only regulate that which it creates and it didn’t create you the living breathing man or woman). The Fictitious name is registered by the Department of Commerce, under the Admiralty Jurisdiction - jurisdiction of commerce and war.

    You -(the baby) are what is called a “C’est tui Que (pronounced “Setakay”) Trust, or rather the COLATERAL or the CORPUS (body) of the Trust. Your LABOR is the energy you generate as a human. However, as an infant, you are deemed “Invalid (in-valid) and Incompetent, and even though your Mother Birthed you (another
    Admiralty term), she agrees to be the TRUSTEE of the Trust (by her SIGNATURE)which was SETTLED (created-Settlor) by the Federal Government, so you (your body) are ENTRUSTED to her for safe keeping until the age of eighteen. You must remember: by Law: WOMEN are incapable of entering into binding agreements, unless they are 14th Amendment citizens. Because of their propensity to be easily hoodwinked by smooth talking con men and because they find it impossible to separate “civil politeness” from “offers and acceptance to contracts”, they must by law, be accompanied by their Husband or Father when making agreements, or the contract is void. Unless that is, they are 14th Amendment citizens. So the Mother, who would not DREAM of “giving” her newborn child to the Government, does so unwittingly, under the unseen “Government wouldn’t dare do that” rule.

    Anyway . . she “agrees” to be the Trustee and she signs your Birth Certificate. (Birth Certificates were only for “slaves” prior to women becoming “equal” to men, via the 14th Amendment). The Mother is the ONLY one required to sign, because she is deemed to be the direct blood more so than the Father. She has the higher “claim” to the infant.

    Once the negotiable instrument (birth certificate) is transferred to the dept of commerce, they “pledge” your “Labor for your Lifetime” as its “secured” asset, and proceeds to “assure” (different from insure) YOUR labor against IT’s (the government’s) DEBT, and it subsequently gets an “underwriter” to insure your labor. The underwriter determines (and this is a lowball figure) your labor to be valued at 94 Million dollars, and it takes out a “Bond” which is held at the Bank which letter designation is on the back of the soc sec card for your FICTION (come on now go check your cards for the number). $94 million federal reserve notes are then issued with that same number and put into circulation. That is someone else’s bond number you are looking at right now! (I know you are looking at a dollar bill, aren’t you!) So-o-o now that we’ve come to this point, we must continue again, so you have time to digest, go into a rage, scream at your mother or sit there in shock.

    On the back of the Fiction’s social security card, the one with your name in ALL CAPS (which represents an “entity” - fiction, corporation), there is a “bond” number. That number has 9 digits with a “letter” in front of it. Get a 1 dollar bill and compare that “serial” number with the number on the back of the social. You will see the similarity. On the face of the dollar bill, is a letter inside a symbol with the words “Federal Reserve Bank of (State Name)” That is the letter designation of the State which holds that bank. example “E” is the Bank of Virginia. The letter of the number on the back of the social is the Bank that is holding a Bond which represents your “labor” for your lifetime. Your “labor” has been “insured” and “assured”, and money has been borrowed against it!

    This is HOW people have been turned into collateral for the federal reserve banks that backs “our” “money”. Do some research before calling me a conspiracy theorist please.

  89. Darren January 26, 2007 7:41 am

    Based on price of buying an ipod the U.S dollar will most likely rally against most other currancies except Canadian dollar.
    Individuals that predict change of a trend & or are saying something differnt I like to examine what they are saying because they most likely have been thinking & not just memorizing & repeat with no understanding. Verry few are in deflation camp @ this point in time.

    There are verry few that want to invest in dollars & are invested in dollars. I have to take a contrian view because few are only invested in dollars most are in debt or are long something selling dollars in exchange for real estate (housing), stocks, comodities etc.

    The strong hands in this round of poker will be the one sitting with cash. The bluff has been set most think cash is a weak hand & they have traded the aces they worked hard for, for mutual funds which most underperm the market, toys not needed, & other things such as real estate. Just like in a poker game the money flows to the best players & or player . Not everyone can be a winner in the game there is only a few players money flows to & only one best player. The fewest players that most cash could flow to are those that are positioned to take advantage of a bull market in the value of the dollar.

    The negitive mood of the masses will cause them to want to war. The U.S has the military strength & few that are committed to reason & reason is needed for understanding. Without understanding it is hard to stop war. Iam against war but perhaps the best thing for the survival of the U.S is to start a war because it might stop a civil war because the masses will be getting what they want in a negitive, angry mood enviorment. When the mood gets so ideas are not thought out @ all degrees of both negitive as well as positive be cautious.
    all ideas are

  90. Kia January 26, 2007 10:03 am

    Stranger #55,

    Glad to hear that my contributions are of use to you. As always I am unable to absolutely confirm or deny the truth of anything as the overlying pattern of lies obscures ALL. So I always try to encourage everyone to take all information with a grain of salt, including whatever I type.;-) BTW thanks for your music, your creativity and contribution are greatly appreciated by myself and I’m sure many amongst us.

    Crazy G #84,

    Skeptical (#88) is spot on. Next time you are in your car, pull down your car registration and look at your name. Notice anything interesting? Your name is all in caps. The reason is that this is a legal hologram promising your labor as collateral on the loan made from the FED to the Treasury. Current debt levels are estimated in excess of 40 trillion when ALL entitlement programs are considered, so divide that by 300 million Americans and you quickly understand that our each individual share is unpayable.

    That is the Cosmic Joke.

    Are you ready to dissolve the FED yet?

  91. Kia January 26, 2007 10:11 am

    Zephyr (#82),

    The poster is referring to a brewing storm over naked shorting or more accurately un-borrowed shorting of shares. This is a practice that was very common in the TSX which is one of the reasons why it has the bad rep it does.

    The PTB uses un-borrowed shorting of shares to hold down the price of a variety of stocks, but is most prevalent in the precious metals stock where non-existent shares are “created” and used to short the stocks.

    The poster is involved in trying to expose this practice and his information is that this may break sometime in February exposing the entire financial industry for what it is, a giant rigged casino.

    This is the Rogue Wave that I have been waiting for.

    Surf’s Up, get your Board

    Peace

  92. Kia January 26, 2007 10:26 am

    “Heroism on command, senseless violence, and all the loathsome nonsense that goes by the name of patriotism - how passionately I hate them!” — Einstein

  93. ostrich January 26, 2007 11:10 am

    It’s been 20+ years since I used it maybe I’ll join her.
    thanks

  94. ostrich January 26, 2007 11:23 am

    oops should have said # 78 I’ll join her

  95. muleskinner January 26, 2007 11:40 am

    The Monocle

    Anybody ever dined there? It is where are of the power is brokered in Warshington, DC.

    I at one time lived in Warshington, DC on Capitol Hill. Not that I was the most influential working stiff walking Pennsylvania Avenue, but I walked the hallowed halls of the office buildings there.

    That was back in 1972 when Richard Nixon was the Presnit. One of the first few months I was there, I was at the north end of the Capitol building when a Vietnam veteran came riding up the road on an adult tricycle next to the Senate wing. The flag he had affixed to the tricycle was flying upside down. It was a classic scene. I approached him and asked what was the purpose of his one man protest. God, too many years to remember what he actually said, but it had to do with the distress signal and the huge 500 pound gorilla in the living room of the White House. A moment seared into my memory.

    George’s political capital deflated into small, empty water balloon from the hot air balloon he’s been ‘piloting.’

    Tomorrow is the surge for peace.

  96. muleskinner January 26, 2007 11:43 am

    ‘It is where are of the power is brokered in Warshington, DC.’

    ‘all’ not are

  97. Kia January 26, 2007 12:39 pm

    Zephyr,

    thought you’d like this

  98. Kia January 26, 2007 12:40 pm

    Zeph,

    Sorry, still haven’t figured out the hypertext:

    http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-feller26jan26,0,3479203.story?track=tottext

  99. muleskinner January 26, 2007 12:57 pm

    One of these: then the text then another one of these

    It takes awhile to get the hang of it, I tried many times before it kicked in.

  100. muleskinner January 26, 2007 12:59 pm

    oh well, I tried. Kia, go to the ‘hyperlink’ link I provided. It does explain it there on what needs to be done.

  101. Kia January 26, 2007 1:08 pm

    muleskinner,

    thanks, I’ll get on it.

    I want to ask about your brewing, but don’t know if this is an appropriate venue. Do you mind if I ask Michael for your email?

  102. Kia January 26, 2007 1:23 pm
  103. muleskinner January 26, 2007 1:45 pm

    My first try was in 1970. It’s ok with me if Michael gives you my email address.

    I’m not that adept at the brewing game, but I’ll give it a shot at answering any questions you have.

  104. godraz January 26, 2007 2:46 pm

    OFF TOPIC but seeing as Kia and muleskinner brought it up, I too am wondering how’d they do that?

    hyperlinks? What’s the coding so you can use descriptions instead of ugly urls.

    box quoting others? That would be nice too, instead of all this sometimes hard to follow use of “this is what she said” or post #ing while responding to the thoughts of others.

    bold type? I think I’ve seen it here, but how to do it is beyond me.

    how about italics? That would be nice.

    And lastly, who wouldn’t like be able to go back into one’s own post to edit it for mis-spellings and such. Any chance of making that capable?

    I don’t mean to gripe but I think a few such user friendly features like the above would be mighty helpful to know how to do and have where possible.

    BTW, home cooked or brewed anything is the bomb, baby!

  105. bp January 26, 2007 3:17 pm

    #67 breck - I’m reading that book now - hate the writing style, but it is interesting - according to their perspective (the book was printed in 1997) we were in the Unraveling period at the time of their writing (with Reagan’s 1984 mornin’ in America being the beginning of it) and we are now moving into the Crisis period - hm, so I figure that each of the 4 periods lasts about 20 years which gives us 2004 as the beginning of the crisis period. My guess would be that each 20 year period would be subdivided into 3 sections so that 2011 is when we get into the extreme of the Crisis, until then it is just a continual build up of problems - it amazes me how slow this wave can move and still be building up force.

    hey muleskinner, kia, stranger - I’ve started brewing too - I figure when Peak Oil hits I won’t be able to get my Belgian beers anymore so I better start learning to brew them myself!

  106. Makia January 26, 2007 3:19 pm

    “Of course, as one poster notes, any such revelation could bring severe disruption to alot of our basic services. Well, at least I would get brief satifaction in being able to say “I told you so!!!”

    BHAAAAHAAHAAAHAAHAAAHAAAAAHAAA!!!

  107. Darth Toll January 26, 2007 3:36 pm

    What is it with the inflationists? Michael lays out a pretty good case as to why the Fed really doesn’t mind a serious deflation at all and all the inflationists can come up with is the usual platitudes about how heli-ben will drop cash, the Fed is terrified of deflation, the Fed will never allow inflation, the US has too much debt for inflation, etc, etc. Sounds to me like a bunch of useless gold bug chatter.

    Listen people, you all need to wake up and get a heck of a lot more cynical in a hurry. Simply ask yourself these questions:

    1.) Who benefits in a deflation? A: Those with large amounts of cash, good cash flow and no debt (elite globalist oligarchy.)

    2.) Who benefits in hyperinflation? A: Those with large amounts of debt (ie: Joe Six Pack consumer with option ARM and huge credit card debt.)

    3.) Which outcome would certainly lead to wholesale regime change? A: Hyperinflation. Weimar led directly to the installation of the Nazi party, who had purchased large quantities of heavily leveraged RE right before hyperinflation broke out and were able to pay it off for pennies on the dollar.

    4.) Why did Greenscam go on “tour” and tell every JSP to take out an adjustable right before the FED began raising? A: To sucker all of the “peeps” into mortgages that would certainly result in foreclosure.

    5.) Why did congress recently re-do the BK laws? A: To make sure that all of the foreclosures (above) couldn’t be written off under BK.

    6.) Why is the sub-prime implode-o-meter pegging off the charts (one BK every week for a lender?) A: The mortgage broker/MBS investor market is not tied into the “plan” for the FED and are not going to be protected. Witness that banks associated with the FED were able to weather the GD without major difficulty and those that weren’t were left to die on the vine.

    People need to realize that heli-ben will do the exact opposite of what he says and the so-called “student of the Great Depression” was brought on board to engineer exactly that outcome: GDII. Statue of Liberty indeed.

  108. kia January 26, 2007 3:58 pm

    Makia,

    Congratulations Dad! Hope Mom and Baby are resting well and the little one looks like her momma;-)

  109. BondBubble January 26, 2007 4:08 pm

    Hi Michael,
    Nice article. However, I’m surprised you havent mentioned the two essence of all deflations: Fictitious capital (Karl Marx reference) and Hoarding. Without you mentioning these two, you will not be able to convince people why deflation will be chosen. The fictitous capital are capital not backed by asset. For instance, the FCBs hold these fictitous capital (”so called savings”). It would not make sense for them to convert these “fictitous capital” into owning the houses because, the Chinese citizen is not going to come and live in the US (US will not allow a Chinese coming to US, but he can own the title of a house in US via MBS/ABS!!). So, what alternative does a chinese have? Convert those savings into what he can consume - i.e grains, oil etc.!! So, in essence all these consumables will be soaring in price (commodities soared during deflation in 1930s). Not only that - hoarding starts as well. Currently, people hold just one can of tune/food. But with uncertainity/price increase in food, they are going to hold more - convert their cash - to feel more comfortable. Imagine, what a double the demand can do to consumables!! (Ofcourse, this transition will be happening in a phased manner, instead of a on/off fashion). It is for this reason, the Fed will chose to maintain a high rate so that Chinese are not left with any money (as most of the MBS will be defaulted) and hence they dont convert their money into consumables. Doug Noland posted an article in 2001 where Miller (Wash. Fed Gov in 29) recorded the “inflation” appeared later (why the hell do you think they raised the interest rate in Aug. 1929?). You are seeing the same inflation in corn/food right now. (I strongly feel metals and oil will soon soar as well). I strongly feel, there will be severe drought in US and China this year - this will obviously illustrate the inflation to everyone. As always, core CPI will be nothing as inflation soars only in food and energy. This is what happened in Argentina in 2002. Lot of people think Argentina had hyper-inflation. It is not true - House prices, rents, taxi fare, restaurant prices - ALL FELL significantly, but food, medicine soared 6 times!! Imagine, if your rental cost is 6 times food expense and food prices rise 3 times and rental prices fall 50%, do you have net inflation - No!! Inflation is zero!! (Ofcourse, Argentina had credit deflation in 2002). Just as inflation was non-neutral (i.e food and energy fell until now since 1980s, all the while credit inflation was soaring), deflation will also be non-neutral!! i.e During the credit inflation of 1980-present, it has taken 27 years for the inflation to show up in food and energy!! Assets soared and food&energy (I prefer the term consumables) fell. Just before the credit deflation starts, consumables will be at high price. When the credit deflation starts, assets will fall in price (the reverse of inflation) first and consumables maintain their prices (the stickiness of wages and prices - this was the essence of depression which you fail to mention). May be after 15-20 years, consumables will fall in price as well - assuming no monetary inflation in the next 20 years!! That is why Fed is FORCED to chose deflation. Most of the deflation believers are deluding that “Credit deflation” implies “Cost of living falls”. Nice try:)- If that was the case, then why not chose deflation as the living cost falls, and everyone is happy. If the delusion is “deflation brings lower cost of living”, then there is no problem in defaulting because, you might lose the money in banks, house etc. but the new house price would have fallen so much in price - it would be a better deal to buy a house then (even if you had less money). You forget to mention the pain!! The pain is in “consumable inflation” which is not part of Core CPI.

  110. bp January 26, 2007 4:33 pm

    BondBubble - good, thoughtful piece — thanks

  111. bp January 26, 2007 4:40 pm

    Makia - Congrats - I have a feeling we won’t be seeing as much of you for awhile

  112. kia January 26, 2007 4:41 pm

    To those watching Wanta story here’s the latest in the strangest story I’ve found:

    http://www.worldreports.org/news/44_devious_u.s._treasur

    Enjoy your weekend,

    Peace

  113. bp January 26, 2007 4:46 pm

    stranger #75 - I looked at that chart after I posted #105 - sure looks close to alignment to me

    and the reference was #68 breck, heh

  114. ostrich January 26, 2007 4:55 pm

    #107 2. the biggest debtor of them all ts the U.S. gov’t
    #109 When food prices soar people get hungry, today’s youth don’t have a conscience & they will riot and they will riot big time, judging by the number of drive by’s I read about I wonder what it will look like when they are hungry as well. I said on another thread that even with the new crowd control weapons/arsenal they won’t be reckoned with.
    The mtv - x box crowd ain’t the same as the vietnam protestors and the gov’t knows it.

  115. kia January 26, 2007 4:55 pm

    Anyone have any thoughts of on the 1.8 point drop in the bonds this week closing below the long term support of 110?

    http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CBOT_US.H07&v=d12

  116. bp January 26, 2007 5:06 pm

    hm stranger let me be a bit more specific on that chart

    in the current cycle of the four turnings: the first Turning was American High (1946-1964) equates to the Spring, the second turning was Consciousness Revolution (1964-1984) equates to Summer, the third turning is Culture Wars (1984-2005?) equates to Autumn, and the fourth turning is Millennial Crisis (2005?-2026?)equates to Winter

    since the book was published in 1997 they couldn’t be certain about dates after that

    seems the turnings are more equal in length that the seasons in your chart - autumn in your chart seems to be very short sometimes

  117. Peter Dykes January 26, 2007 7:26 pm

    If deflation was allowed to occur by closing the money spigots, the politcal repercussions would become intolerable. Housing prices and the stock would collapse,unemployment would soar to 30% as in the Great Depression, taxes would escalate to 80% + and the populace would become very ugly and ungovernable turning on the ruling elite as the culprits responsible.

    So-called democratic governments don’t operate like that any more.The primary concern is to maintain the power and privileges of the ruling elite,so that necessitates inflating the economy for as long as they can until hyperinflation sets in followed by deflation. The idea is to prolong this so the present incumbents are not there when it happens, rather like ‘musical chairs’.I spite of what Michael is suggesting, it always comes down to the lowest common denominator, and is a relatively simple matter of self-interest, and for politicians ’self-interest’ above all means holding the howling mob at bay.

    As for gold, inflation or deflation, it is likely to be a good investment, not because it is a commodity but because it is money. This was the case in the Great Depression and it will be so again. With gold, you don’t need to trade it, you don’t need to worry about it, you just need to steadily accumulate it at bargain basement prices and sit on it - if need be for many years.

  118. Peter Dykes January 26, 2007 7:41 pm

    Nor can one successfully advance the argument that the Federal Reserve is a private organisation and therefore not subject to these considerations. The truth is they are only quasi private, and so symbiotically connected to the government that they are virtually joined at the hip, quite unable to draw sustenance without the ultimate approval of the latter, which if they became sufficiently desperate, could easily revoke the privileges of whomsover they wish if it appeases the mob. To see the Federal Reserve and the ‘Bankers’ as wicked all-powerful machiavellians, a remote and untouchable force, manipulating their puppet governments, is to carry conspiracy theory to new levels.

  119. Mister_Noital January 27, 2007 1:13 am

    I’m the Chief of Police. I live in a very nice house in the best part of town; my wife drives a Mercedes converible; and my kids go to private schools.

    I’m a success because I get money on the side from drug dealers. They get people hooked and I make money; addicts commit crimes, and I get more police: It’s Win-Win.

    The addicts are losers, so it’s no big deal.

    But lately those damn drug dealers have gone too far; they’re selling crack and ecstacy, too many naive kids are dying, and the people who elected me are complaining.

    So I figure I’m facing the same problem that the U.S. government will face with the Federal Reserve.

    It’s messy because the drug dealers have money and influential friends, and I want to keep their money coming in.

    Then last week I found out that my kid, who’s been accepted into an Ivy League school, is hooked on cocaine…and my wife threatened to go public if I didn’t do something. Women have no common sense, but you can’t pretend they don’t exist.

    So I played a round of golf with the drug-dealer boss and we agreed that to keep up appearances, I’d step aside for four years, and let a do-gooder take over as police chief. Then we’d work behind the scenes to create havoc and make sure the do-gooder would be the fall guy. In four years, I’d come out of retirement to save the town. That way everyone wins.

  120. bp January 27, 2007 5:12 am

    #117, Peter Dykes, Re: So-called democratic governments don’t operate like that any more.

    hm, I’d have to say that is a linear point of view - take a long term view of history and I think you will have to admit that civilizations fail, and in the process of failing the ruling elite always try to divert blame from themselves - I figure if our society starts down this road we will be drawn into a war to distract us from what is occurring within our society.

    As BondBubble implies above what will likely happen can not easily be described in categorical statements - in the last depression banks did not fail all at once across the board - they fell for different reasons and in different places at different times, but the net effect was to create black holes that sucked the surrounding economies in, and still our economy is sooo large that a few black holes are tolerable - kind of like predicting the specific weather for a certain day next year - about all one can do is say by February of next year Winter should set in.

  121. Makia January 27, 2007 5:14 am

    just haven’t had anything to say.

    babies over there? hmmmmmm

    one baby from you? neat

    two babies from you? wow

    and i’ll take this opportunity to remind us men (and some women maybe) what sex is all about. I mean, Omigod. We all come out of THERE?!?

    think about it, sex is an intricate part of humanity, as well as family. In the scope of economics and politics, often family, sex, spirituality, real morality and ethics, these are the elephants in the room.

    Of course there is a spectrum of experience and proximity to experience; the myriad of things.

    Each of us need to find our set of priorities and find our peaces within the challenges we face, but i can’t think of any more important “myth” that people embrace than their myth of progress. What is “the next step?” What have been the real acheivements? The real setbacks? I, for one, don’t see technology and much of industrialization as progress; therefore i see more of a primitive world of man. A species who has mastered somewhat large feats in the scale of the materials of his planet, but as a race has no concept of a greater role in “Reality.” Dare i say? A primitive race who has relatively miniscule elements within it which bend and fold the will and production of the masses for the great benefit of a few? Well, alls i can say is i didn’t make it this way.

    But i do know that humans have been walking upright for almost 4 million years. We didn’t get here being reminded to go exercise by an alarm on an ipod that we listened to so we could “get into” being healthy.

    :-)

    So what will be.

  122. mikeck44 January 27, 2007 5:19 am

    Mister_Noital,

    As much as I want believe that was all a bunch of BS, knowing about all the criminal goings on now-a-days it rings all too true. If you are just BSing and don’t believe there is all that much criminality in the government/ media/ financial/ military/ banker/ industrial complex, save this link until you have time to read what Catherine Austin Fitts has to say. http://www.dunwalke.com/ It is long, but very enlightening.
    Mike

  123. Anonymous January 27, 2007 5:33 am

    I see my last email commenting on your BS article was removed. Once again, your readers should know that Michael Ruppert is NO expert on the Federal Reserve System - nor is he an expert on 9/11. He has now left the country because so many people recognize him as a Zionist disinformation agent covering up for the Israeli involvement in 9/11.

    Eustace Mullins, a former researcher at the staff of the Library of Congress, was the first person ever to expose publicly the fraud that the Fed is in his book ‘Secrets of the Federal Reserve’. I’ve been investigating his work for 3 years now, and frankly he’s probably part of a group of no more than 10 people in the whole world who are honest brokers for the truth. Here’s a mind-blowing interview with him:

    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8667011121551944391&q=eustace+mullins&hl=en

    For more information on the Federal Reserve and other Zionist crimes go see http://www.iamthewitness.com

    Go hang yourself Mr. Nystrom!

  124. muleskinner January 27, 2007 5:44 am

    Ford is experiencing some contraction of their money supply. I don’t know how much they have in the bank, but it is 12 plus billion dollars less than last year.

    Ford is going to have to do something.

    I remember one of Richard McClendon’s entries at his web site when it was still in existence.

    “Bye, Bye Ford”

  125. skeptical January 27, 2007 6:22 am

    Bond Bubble said “(commodities soared during deflation in 1930s).”

    BAAHHHAAHHHAHHAHHHA - BB do you remember the dust bowl, how about the farm bill passed in 1993 to help farmers out since their commodities had suffered such price COLLAPSEs that they were all going bankrupt.

    Please if you are going to spout off like some kind of expert, do some research first. The only reason this country survived the FIRST great depression was BECAUSE the cost of living ALSO declined along with WAGES and ASSET prices.

    Here is an excerpt from Agricultural Adjustment Act, May the 12th, 1933:

    “That the present acute economic emergency being in part the consequence of a severe and increasing disparity between the prices of agriculture and other commodities, which disparity bas largely destroyed the purchasing power of farmers for industrial products, has broken down the orderly exchange of commodities, and has seriously impaired the agricultural assets supporting the national credit structure, it is hereby declared that these conditions in the basic industry of agriculture have affected transactions in agricultural commodities with a national public interest, have burdened and obstructed the normal currents of commerce in such commodities and rendered imperative the immediate enactment of Title 1 of this act.”

    Does that look like the farmers were asking the gov to bail them out because their commodites had grown too HIGH in price????

    BTW, Darth Toll is spot on. You guys had better start studying your history before you babble on about your “feelings” or opinions. Sorry to be so harsh but as darth says “Listen people, you all need to wake up and get a heck of a lot more cynical in a hurry”

    I would add to that “you people need to study more history”

    Also for those who think that we will follow the Weimar Republic hyperinflation ask yourself this question:

    Who was in charge of the Weimar banks during that hyperinflation?
    A) was it the same banking powers who had been carrying on the business of banking for thousands of years in Europe or
    B) A newbie organization with NO history or experience with banking?

    Remember there had recently been a great outlash against Jews because of their role in selling out Germany during WWI (they got the US into the war so as to defeat Germany so that they could get Palestine in payment for their efforst of getting the US in).

    Do go calling me an anti-semite, I am just stating facts.

  126. Administrator January 27, 2007 6:55 am

    Hey Anonymous,

    You certainly won’t score many points by telling people thinks like

    Go hang yourself Mr. Nystrom!

    .

    That is a very mean thing to do. Where did you learn your manners? What would your mother think of you telling people you’ve never met, and do not know to go hang themselves?

    You may think you’re courageous, but you haven’t even the courage to use your own name.

  127. Makia January 27, 2007 7:03 am

    Michael, seriously. “Go hang yourself?” I mean that’s someone who needs to take a chill pill. Not that i endorse mass-produced medication. Maybe some Chai?

  128. Dr Jane Karlsson January 27, 2007 7:14 am

    Kia 91, is that guy talking about the same ‘naked shorts’ in gold that Adam Hamilton talks about??? I’ve been waiting for that stuff to come unstuck forever.

    muleskinner 76 and 85, how incredible. Guess what, I’ve seen EXACTLY the same thing! I’ve seen some more stuff too, tell you sometime.

    skeptical and zephyr, I’ve just googled fluoride and mind control. Plausible, I think.

    Talking of mass mind control, have you heard of HAARP? It’s a huge antenna array in Alaska, said to be based on Tesla technology. It’s supposed to be a toy for scientists to find out how the sky works, but there are other possible uses.

    Like weather modification. It’s said to have produced a surge of energy just before Katrina. It has occurred to me that maybe the reason Bush is so iffy about climate change is that he thinks, rightly or wrongly, that it’s actually caused not by greenhouse gases but by HAARP.

    It certainly is true that electromagnetic radiation can be used for mind control, and you don’t need to put an electrode in people’s heads nowadays. How about the insane behaviour of the markets being due to HAARP?

    Makia, you’re back! Many congratulations, delighted to hear all is well. I asked zephyr on the other thread to text you, don’t bother, zephyr.

  129. Makia January 27, 2007 7:21 am

    Hugs and Kisses

  130. muleskinner January 27, 2007 7:28 am

    Anonymous forgets that at one time he was a helpless baby in need of his mother’s care.

    He should give her a call, or, if she has shuffled from her mortal coil, think of her and what she did for him. Say a little prayer, anonymous. It isn’t that bad.

    I feel sorry for anonymous. He needs to wake up and smell the coffee. A fool never learns.

    Don’t worry about it, Michael. People have said worse things to me over the internet.

    Time heals all wounds.

  131. muleskinner January 27, 2007 7:45 am

    Jane, last night George Snoory was covering the story about the teenager who shot the alien. The teenager was interviewed by Linda Moulton Howe.

    It was interesting.

    I call him George Snoory because every time I start to listen to his program, I fall asleep.

    Don’t use Canola oil.

  132. robert j opperman January 27, 2007 8:19 am

    I am aware that the Fed and the Government are
    separate entities. However, it is the US Treasury that prints the currency; and that is a government insitution.
    How does the currency get into the hands of the Federal Reserve? Do they simply borrow it at discount rates? And why does the Fed have control of the printing presses?

    And further to your article, do not the banks that control the Federal Reserve fear that through deflation, the outstanding debts owed by everyone will not be paid? Is there be a point in time when a happy equilibrium is met
    that satisfies both the banks and debtors? Or is the road
    debtors travel a “one way” that inexorably leads to the
    collapse of the US currency, ala the Weimar Republic?

  133. kia January 27, 2007 8:25 am

    Skeptical #125

    good due diligence, keep it up it maintains information over opinion.

    Jane #128,

    I’m not familiar with Adam Hamilton, for more info on shorting of non-borrowed shares go to GATA.org probably the most active organization in the area that I know.

    Makia #129

    Congrats Dad

    Muleskinner and Jane (#131)

    Other than cold pressed olive oil, are there are other “safe” oils to use?

  134. Dr Jane Karlsson January 27, 2007 8:29 am

    Coconut oil, palm oil.

  135. kia January 27, 2007 8:33 am

    thanks jane

  136. muleskinner January 27, 2007 8:41 am

    Sunflower oil (cold pressed) is at a par or maybe even better than olive oil. Lay’s began using sunflower oil in all of the chip making last year.

    Corn oil is good. Safflower oil is good. Of course, olive oil is good.

    Hemp oil is good, but keep it refrigerated at all times.

    Also, never use soybean oil except in your diesel engine.

    Peanut oil was the first diesel fuel.

    Rudolph Diesel

  137. ostrich January 27, 2007 8:55 am

    Jane - yes Adam Hamilton’s naked short articles is what he is referring to.
    Health - I use canola never coconut or palm? I tossed the lipitor after a week so which oil is it?

  138. Makia January 27, 2007 9:28 am

    eat raw nuts

  139. muleskinner January 27, 2007 9:30 am

    Hats off to Michael for making allowances for off topic discussions. I know I’m all over the map here. He tolerates a great deal of off topic subject matter.

    Mr. Noital is spot on with his critical analysis of what is really going on across the ‘Land of the Fee.’

    Take the case of John Ashcroft. Everybody knows who he is.

    He has a nephew who was busted for growing marijuana. He was arrested and given probation as his sentence. How many other marijuana growers are given such special treatment?

    Everybody else involved with the what is actually a de facto legal trade of cannabis is demonized and thrown into the hoosegow. Treated like untermenschen, even killed by the drug warriors.

    How many are out there who aren’t ‘Senator’s Sons’ that are treated like animals in the US prison system for having a plant? More than you want to know.

    I know for a FACT that a prominent banker’s son in the upper Midwest was busted for a grow operation in a larger metropolitan area back in the mid-eighties.

    Darly Gates, the former police chief wanted to shoot people for drug abuse. Bill Bennett (Mr. Moral Virtues along with being the world’s greatest gambler) wants to behead people involved with the drug trade. The head of the American Taliban wears blinders when he sees freedom.

    Maybe Bill should behead John Ashcroft’s nephew. I am quite certain that Mr. Ashcroft would approve of that kind of action. You gotta stop the drug trade somehow. Beheading people would work. Maybe John Ashcroft wouldn’t be able to stomach the possibility, but that’s the way it goes moving west.

    The French used the guillotine up until 1977, so there is at least one available for use. French sociologists even studied the actions of severed heads. NASA has those studies.

    I guess if you want to start beheading people, you really have to begin at the top, not at the bottom.

    If you want equitable justice in any kind of government, it must apply to all, not just a few. If you don’t, there will never be peace. Since the drug war has been going on at breakneck speed since Dick Nixon declared it some 35 years ago.

    BTW, I’ve been smoking cannabis for over 36 years. I ain’t dead yet. A study was done in Jamaica about 30 years ago. It was discovered that Jamaicans who use cannabis on a regular basis lived longer.

    You can’t stop the truth.

    If you must redact or delete this comment, I won’t be offended.

  140. Makia January 27, 2007 9:45 am

    ditto

  141. bowolf January 27, 2007 10:14 am

    You are on to something.

    There is one critical imbalance: The balance of trade. Never mind debt, personal or government. That matters not. The balance of trade can only be paid with sweat, not lawyers or economists.

    The balance of trade can only be paid three ways: Destroy the indebtedness to foreigners, or pay the foreigners off with assets, or destroy the foreigners. Inflation is the first way. The second way will lead to selling off the country and long term political misery and will result in socialism. The third way is horror.

    You are proposing the second way. I see that as untenable, though a bad choice has never prevented anyone from making it.

    I see the only way out as the third way. The first and second may present themselves, flapping away back and forth. It is the third way that wins for both the fed and the feds.

    Enjoy the future, for there will be much to write about.

    This is not a bear market, nor a bull market, it is the economy of the wolf.

    Snarl

  142. kia January 27, 2007 10:15 am

    Muleskinner,

    Say it brother.

    The drug war is just another business like any other American past time, like weapons sales. It reaps huge profits for government and industry.

    Exxon is the only company allow to import the chemicals needed to convert coca over to cocaine to Colombia.

    The DEA/CIA are active in aiding and abetting traffic. Their take of the profits fund other black ops the world over.

    The cigarette manufacturers benefit because their product is used to launder the profits.

    The pharmaceutical industry doesn’t want any competition from a plant that grows naturally all over the US.

    The pulp, paper and cotton industries don’t want competition from hemp.

    The multinational oil companies don’t want competition from a crop that requires no pesticides or herbicides.

    The brewing industry doesn’t want any competition to their industrial swill.

    The prison industry loves to build more prisons to lock up non-violent offenders.

    There are NO conspiracies other than the desire to make money at the expense of others.

    Peace

  143. BondBubble January 27, 2007 10:18 am

    skeptical says read history. You idiot, if you say “dust bowl” happened in 1930s, I’m not sure how that equates to “problem of plenty”. I understand that there were price supports - govt operated cooperative stores to purchase agricultural goods at high prices. So I do realize that prices were maintained high by govt support. I’m not sure how this means to you that prices fell like crazy. Also, if US was producing everything at 1/10th of the price, why would they need to pass the smoot-hawley act? If you make everything cheap, why not dare any competitor to sell into US market at cheap price? The problem was essentially, FCBs then were holding USD and pound and they were buying what was essential to them - not necessarily what was excessively produced by US. Again, Jim Rogers has published a book saying commodities soared in 1933 right through deflation. This is obvious because, govt spent tons and tons of money on projects like Hoover dam (did you know that the cement used in hover dam can build the complete I-90?), Tenneesee valley proj etc. Just because price was maintained high other industries had trouble surviving against govt spending - that is why deflation was so painful. Finally, to give you proof of inflation in 1930s:
    1) GoTo http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ and look for consumer inflation data from 1920s. Even in the revised CPI data (by BLS), you will see CPI was negative only for 2 years and was about 4% from 1933 onwards (monthly data also available). (It was +10% in 1932!!! - go look for it yourself you moron. If food prices were falling, real estate was falling, what the fuck was appreciating to cause CPI to be 10%?). You fail to see what hoarding means and what “Stickiness of price” means. I’ve never seen anyone dare to talk about these two items as this is what “GDepression” was all about!! And hoarding does not mean only “traders hoard”. I see walmart/target prices rising - so I buy more stuff and stock it!!
    2) Below is the link on Jim Grant article. Apparently,Grant was analyzing the mortgage history of a building completed right before depression. The owner defaulted on this building - even though the interest rate was low single digit (on the mortgage). Look at some of the expenses these guys have to endure. Oil prices soared 71%!!! Ofcourse, a stupid ass like you will not believe the history recorded by a building owner - recorded as and when things happened - but you will chose to stupidly claim “ALL PRICES FELL”. Nice try you jackass.
    http://www.institutionaladvisors.com/pdf/060829%20CONSEQUENCE_OF_REAL_ESTATE_BUBBLES.pdf
    Go To Page 3, bottommost, rightmost column. Oil prices soared 71% and hence they moved to coal fired heating!!!

    3) Again, that CPI increased was “officially recorded” by none other than Wash. Fed. Gov. Adolph Miller (1929). Ofcourse, you might say, Fed Gov Miller is an idiot, does not know what inflation means, BAWAHBAHH…. But, I’ll believe a Fed Gov of 1929 who recorded this in 1929 rather than a stupid ass like you:
    http://www.safehaven.com/article-526.htm
    “(George) Harrison (CEO of NY Fed after the death of B. Strong) stated the quantitative guide: When credit expands faster than trade or business, the Federal Reserve System should raise rates, ‘whether the expansion is due to speculation in real estate, securities, or commodities, or whether it is due to abnormal growth of business.” (Page 250/251) “Harrison acknowledged two mistakes in 1928-29: ‘First we raised our rate the first time too late, and second, we did not raise it fast enough…”
    “No credit system could undertake to perform the function of regulating credit by reference to prices without failing in the endeavor.” “… it is important to realize that no two situations are identical. They do not repeat themselves with such accuracy that the method by which you successfully deal with one situation will insure an equally satisfactory result in another situation.” “Miller thought that the price index was the wrong target. Price increases came late. ‘To the extent that the Federal Reserve System can do something useful and constructive… it has got to have a far more competent guide than the price index offers. Assuming that we want price stability - I prefer to put it as I have already put it, economic stability with price stability as a concomitant or resultant of that - in order to obtain it we have to look at things closer to the source or beginning of troubles than the price index… If you are to have competent control of credit, you cannot wait until inflationary developments register themselves in the price index. By that time the thing will have already gotten considerable momentum.”

    BondBubble: Ben Franklin said, the rich guys have to hang out togather or else be hanged individually. In a depression, I believe everyone wanted this to be resolved sincerely. As per Occam’s Razor, the simplest straight forward explanation is the right one. There was inflation as speculative juices were flowing into “essential” stuff (from the non-essential stuff like Assets) and that is why Fed raised interest rate in 1929!! That caused credit deflation. There is no twist, convoluted logic like it can be prevented, conspiracies, jews etc. It is extremely simple and straight forward: Credit inflation causes “essential price inflation” after whatever period it takes (all the while creation of inflation in assets are ignored). When the fed chooses to tackle the “essential price inflation”, all the assets gets liquidated, and those “rich” people try to convert their assets into “essential goods”/hoarding. This is the painful part. That is why Fed will choose deflation. No conspiracies, no inabilities, no stupidities, no looting ….

  144. skeptical January 27, 2007 11:03 am

    Kia - Spot on! The “war on drugs” is for one purpose ONLY. To keep the monopoly in the hands of the CIA and other “black ops”. By keeping drugs illegal they can keep the price high which puts MUCHO money into their pockets (also to keep hemp from competing with other “economic” options as KIA stated).

    Anyone interested in knowing more about this should read Katherine Austin Fitts site http://www.solari.com. She is an insider and knows what is going on. She contends that it is the landering of drug money that keeps wallstreet in business. Read http://www.dunwalke.com/introduction.htm

  145. ostrich January 27, 2007 11:14 am

    muleskinner #139 ah…It was the best of times it was the worst of times……
    In southern ontario the tobacco farmers have seen their fortunes dwindle due to lack of demand they won a legal precedent to grow hemp and started an ancient business once again. The gov’t is very strict in monitoring the thc content.

  146. the stranger January 27, 2007 12:14 pm

    Kia, Jane, 133 – go to Le Metropole Café, this the GATA Saloon. You can get a free two week membership. Adam Hamilton posts there regularly so you can kill two birds with one blade (as we say in my business). Le Café is to the contemporary monetary discussion as The Oil Drum is to Peak-oil.

    Good anonymous, thanks. I see writing everywhere. Well written, well thought out, very informative and sometimes even uplifting. Please, keep up the good work…

    Bad anonymous, yikes! …you’re freakin’ me out man.

  147. kia January 27, 2007 5:48 pm

    here’s a chuckle for all:

    In the beginning, God created the Heavens and the Earth and populated
    the Earth with broccoli, cauliflower and spinach, green and yellow and
    red vegetables of all kinds, so Man and Woman would live long and
    healthy lives.

    Then using God’s great gifts, Satan created Ben and Jerry’s Ice Cream
    and Krispy Creme Donuts. And Satan said, “You want chocolate with
    that?”And Man said, “Yes!” and Woman said, “and as long as you’re at it, add some sprinkles.” And they gained 10 pounds. And Satan smiled.

    And God created the healthful yogurt that Woman might keep the figure
    that Man found so fair. And Satan brought forth white flour from the
    wheat, and sugar from the cane and combined them. And Woman went from size 6 to size 14.

    So God said, “Try my fresh green salad.” And Satan presented
    Thousand-Island Dressing, buttery croutons and garlic toast on the
    side.And Man and Woman unfastened their belts following the repast.

    God then said, “I have sent you heart healthy vegetables and olive oil
    in which to cook them.” And Satan brought forth deep fried fish and
    chicken-fried steak so big it needed its own platter. And Man gained
    more weight and his cholesterol went through the roof.

    God then created a light, fluffy white cake, named it “Angel Food
    Cake,”and said, “it is good.” Satan then created chocolate cake and named it “Devil’s Food.”

    God then brought forth running shoes so that His children might lose
    those extra pounds. And Satan gave cable TV with a remote control so
    Man would not have to toil changing the channels. And Man and Woman
    laughed and cried before the flickering blue light and gained pounds.

    Then God brought forth the potato, naturally low in fat and brimming
    with nutrition. And Satan peeled off the healthful skin and sliced the
    starchy center into chips and deep-fried them. And Man gained pounds.
    God then gave lean beef so that Man might consume fewer calories and
    still satisfy his appetite. And Satan created McDonald’s and its
    99-cent double cheeseburger. Then said, “You want fries with that?” And Man replied, “Yes! And super size them!” And Satan said, “It is good.” And Man went into cardiac arrest.

    God sighed and created quadruple bypass surgery.

    Then Satan created HMOs.

    Peace and Laughter to you All

  148. T Allen January 27, 2007 6:03 pm

    One argument against a true deflation is that our ruling elite, the ones that control the Fed, want to replace the dollar with the amero. What better way to do it than to hyperinflate the dollar to worthlessness.

  149. J Wig January 27, 2007 6:09 pm

    “Mistake? Really? For whom? 75% of the banks that failed were not part of the Federal Reserve System. Those banking failures went a long way towards eliminated the Fed’s competition.”

    This may not apply here as the Fed has the monopoly on cash. Thus to punish US banks not in the FRS is simply punishing a vendor that is using and selling your product, cash (capital). In fact, you will find that the FR and Wallstreet have bailed out (or attempted) institutions regardless of their status with the FRS from the 80s on. What mattered was the potential damage if the institution failed. However, all this is old news. You should have taken it a step further. The FRS’s real competition is global.

  150. muleskinner January 28, 2007 5:57 am

    Site stats

  151. mikeck44 January 28, 2007 7:03 am

    Muleskinner,
    I don’t know how they can know all that, but on the other hand there are no secrets anymore. Privacy is kaput, law and order is kaput, habeas corpus is kaput, our courts are so corrupt we would probably be better off if they were kaput, etc. Bottom line, freedom is nearly kaput.

    I guess it is time for me to reread Harry Browne’s book, How I Found Freedom in an Unfree World. Or, maybe I could just check with The Mogambo Guru to see if he has any spare room in his bunker that he would trade off for a couple cases of AK ammo, some RPG’s and a few ounces of gold. Hmm, where to find those critical items?
    Good day all,
    Mike

    PS: I’m sure The Mogambo would let you in if you showed up with some home brew, pizza and dancing girls.

  152. Piero Suarez January 28, 2007 7:08 am

    The FED and banks are here to transfer money from the poor and middle class to the super rich. They can achieve both of these objetives via deflation (bankrupcy, foreclosures, buying things 10 cents on the dollar) or via inflation (foreclosures happen anyway because wages do not keep up with the cost of living) — you eventually get an inflationay recesion. The difference is that via inflation, things happen over a longer time frame.

    You must remember that the super rich depend on the “system” controllng the population mass. A deflationary senario would be much riskier in their ability to control the population. They have been working on this for decades. Why risk losing control if inflation is easier to hide, control and will take them to the same objetive?

    Besides, for those of you who think deflation, there are no such signs. In fact, all statistics point to INFLATION:

    “European Money-Supply Growth Is Fastest in 17 Years (Update4) ” from Blomberg.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a065HvU.hVW8&refer=worldwide

    —————————————————–

    I have lived in Latin America for many many years and lived during the last two devaluations in Mexico and the last one in Argentina. Countries will always inflate until they have no choice. They have no choice when the average Joe EXPECTS hyperinflation. At this time in the US, the average Joe sees prices increasing, but is still confused by the bogus reported CPI numbers. The average Joe expects inflating to be about 3 to 4%. This is not hyperinflationary. The Central banking business is basically increasing the money supply faster than people expect and they have even programmed us to believe that inflation is the increase in prices (which is an effect) and not the actual creation of money.

    The very wealthy (bank owners, Rockefellers, etc.) have set up a system in which they tax us middle class via inflation. They make money by doing this. They will not stop until they do not have a choice. They are not about to let deflation occur because it would mean loses to them and would mean paying the average retired Joe more money (in real terms)! Would mean having to pay all those foreign investors more money (in real terms)! Forget it if they have a choice!

    1) They will find ways to inflate
    2) There will be deflation in real terms (versus gold/ silver and other tangibles) but not in nominal terms
    3) The dollar is probably the less attractive currency (of the major ones) but all others will inflate a lot also to not let the dollar fall alone.

    People have been trained (controlled education??) to believe that easy money and inflation is good for the economy. I saw in my own eyes how restrictive credit in Latin America was so unpopular and people wanted devaluation (in that case against the dollar, in this case against tangible goods). It was easy to see that devaluation would bring higher wages in nominal terms, but would reduce wages in real terms. People are too stupid to realize this! Even if a responsible government came that wanted to fix things and allow the economy to correct and adjust as a result of the easy money of the last 20 years, it would end up being very tough politically. I have seen it over and over again.

    Finally, let me ask the deflation camp the following:

    You guys say that deflation would occur because of a reduction in the money supply. That the FED would not be able to inflate fast enough to compensate. So, a reduction in money supply makes the dollar more valuable against tangibles and any other thing that is not being reduced in supply at the same rate. As a result, we should invest in cash and short term treasuries.

    The current money system is based on FIAT money. Fiat money is backed by promises. Do you think that the dollar is a safe place to invest when you have major corporations such as Ford, GM going bankrupt, banks coming down, maybe riots in the streets? Do you think foreign people will want green bills to place their savings? Or will they choose something that does not depend on the promise of a government? AND ON THE TAXING POTENTIAL OF ITS PEOPLE (that is going down hill also by the way)?

    Frankly, I am not sure how gold would behave in case (which is think is unlikely) of deflation. One one hand you have the effect of a more valuable dollar (reduced supply), but on the other you have the effect of lost confidence in paper money. Take Ford for example, lets say it starts reducing is float of stock by 5% a year or 10% a year because some of its owners decide to burn this amount of shares (this makes the remaining shares more valuable), but Ford keeps losing money, keeps getting more indebted, it cant sell cars for a profit and its retirement liabilities are worth more than the value of all its tangible assts). Do you want to put all your money in Ford?? Maybe the analogy is not exact, but I hope this helps to illustrate the problem with Fiat money… Owning a dollar is sort of like owning a share of the taxing potential of the US government.

    Returning to gold:

    If there is deflation, I run the risk of losing some money in gold (in dollar terms but keeping my purchasing power relative to other things). If we get inflation and invest in cash, I risk losing my capital.

    I think gold and silver are a much better vehicle for investment than cash (more conservative under either of the scenarios). Even the deflationists can not guarantee that under a real nasty depressive scenario, the dollar will be the place to be.

    Do you deflationists still see cash as a better overall choice?

    One more thing, If you look at Paul Van Eeden’s work, you will find that based on the amount of inflation in the dollar’s M3 in a model he has developed (since 1950’s) gold should be valued at about $950/oz. Even if M3 we to be reduced by 40% (a BIG NASTY reduction that would probably destroy the US economy), gold at $610/oz would be a fair value. So, you have an extra safety.

    ————————————————– –
    I think the follwing could be interesting:

    Real U.S. shortfall: $4.6 trillion in red
    JUST IN 2006!!!

    http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53413

    Now lets see. If there are about 140,000 tones of gold (ALL THE GOLD EVEN MINED IN THE WORLD), this works out to a value of about $2.8 trillion at $620 an ounce (todays aprox price).

    http://www.galmarley.com/FAQs_pages/commodity_essentials_faqs.htm

    In just one year, the US shortfall is larger than the value of all the available gold!

    WE ARE SWIMMING IN A SEA OF PAPER PROMISES!
    ————————————————– —-
    The banking industry does not seem to be thinking in deflation:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/05/AR2007010501649.html
    [Seems like article has been taken down....]

    Congress recently passed legislation that imposes a 36- percent cap on annual interest rates and fees that lenders can charge on credit cards and other loans provided to U.S. military personnel. The article cites members of the financial comunity that complain about this cap.

    A 36% interest cap, and the FINANCIAL COMUNITY IS COMPLAINING? Seems like a very confortable cap if deflation is coming.
    ——————————–

    Best, Piero

  153. Piero Suarez January 28, 2007 7:13 am

    A Bankers opinion:

    …. I would not want to close off the evening without tabling one opportunity for all of us to make money, safeguard our wealth, and protect ourselves from the ravages of inflation over the next many years — and that is gold bullion.

    Gold bullion is a secretive, opaque market with little transparency. Gold can be volatile, is almost impossible to forecast on a short-term basis, and requires great patience, and, accordingly, it’s not for short-term traders but rather for serious long-term investors.

    Is gold a currency, a commodity, or a store of value?

    The answer is all three, but gold bullion is primarily a currency and a store of value and is a hedge against fiat paper money and inflation.

    As an economic consultant in 1966 Alan Greenspan wrote: “In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process.”

    At Royal Bank we trade gold bullion off our foreign exchange desks rather than our commodity desks because that’s what it’s is — a global currency.

    As J.P. Morgan said in 1913: “Gold is money and nothing more.”

    It was Alan Greenspan again who said in a 1999 testimony before the U.S. House Banking Committee that “gold represents the ultimate form of payment in the world.”

    Gold bullion is the only currency worldwide which is freely tradable and which is unencumbered by vast quantities of sovereign debt and prior obligations.

    Gold bullion is the one investment and long-term store of value which cannot be adversely impacted by corrupt corporate management or incompetent politicians — each of which are in ample supply on a
    global basis.

    As a currency and a store of value gold has stood the test of many centuries.

    At the current level of about $625 per ounce, gold has risen about 250 percent over the last five years.

    Nevertheless, I believe gold bullion is now in the very early stages of a long-term secular bull market which will carry it to much higher levels over the coming decade.

    I don’t think there’s any point in speculating how high the price of gold might go in the course of this cycle because no one can be that precise.

    Suffice to say I anticipate a material increase.

    History doesn’t repeat but it’s well to remember that from 1970 to 1980 gold rose 2,300 percent so it shows what can happen.

    Reflecting on the long-term outlook for gold, it is important to fully appreciate that we now live in a world of fiat paper money.

    Just as a reminder, fiat paper money, according to the Oxford Dictionary, is inconvertible paper money made legal tender by government decree.

    The real question over the long term is: How much confidence do you have in politicians and central bankers to maintain the purchasing power of their currencies?

    Since the U.S. moved to fiat paper money in 1971, the dollar has lost 80 percent of its purchasing power.

    Since the Federal Reserve was established 93 years ago, the dollar has lost 98 percent of its purchasing power.

    The new fiat U.S. dollar system has been in place for only 35 years — not long when you consider the sad and sorry record of fiat paper money around the globe throughout the past century or two.

    I would say the jury is very much out on this new system.

    What will the record of the U.S. dollar be in another 20 or 30 years?

    Recent history does not augur well and it could be much worse.

    The U.S. annual trade deficit, now running at a rate of more than three-quarters of a trillion annually, or 6.3 percent of GDP, is a huge concern.

    It’s not prudent for the U.S. to depend on foreign bond buyers to finance domestic consumption.

    Asian countries produce low-cost goods which are shipped to the United States, the U.S. ships dollars back to Asia, and then the Asians purchase U.S. treasuries.

    One could say this is a giant international Ponzi scheme. I don’t think this model is viable or sustainable. Asian central banks will not want to accumulate U.S. dollars at the current rate forever.

    There is no free lunch. Virtuous circles like this, where everyone appears a winner, always come to an unhappy ending.

    We have never before experienced imbalances in global trade and foreign exchange of the current magnitude — not even close.

    Major currency realignment is coming, and the longer it is delayed, the more the risk of the crisis. You can’t hold back the tide.

    The ingredients are here for major trouble in global financial and foreign exchange markets.

    For all these reasons, I believe the stature and reputation of the U.S. dollar as a store of value have been greatly diminished and undermined over the past decade.

    In light of all this, I believe gold bullion will gradually re-emerge as an accepted alternative asset and investment.

    Over the past few years the price of gold has been in a clear uptrend against the U.S. dollar, the euro, the yen, the Indian rupee, and the renminbi.

    I think this trend will continue and accelerate as events unfold.

    Another factor is that I believe over the past decade there has been a substantial increase in systemic risk in the global financial system, which has benefited greatly from an extended period of incredibly low interest rates, easy credit, and what can only be described as massive liquidity.

    History shows that such an environment can, and usually does, foster a degree of complacency.

    In the financial and investment business memories are short and every generation has to learn the hard way.

    Leverage in virtually every area of the financial markets has increased.

    Financial products are now infinitely more complex.

    There is, at present, an unwarranted optimism that the business cycle is a thing of the past, that central banks with infinite wisdom are in firm control and will be able to thread the needle between inflation and deflation, and that we will never again have a major foreign-exchange or financial crisis.

    Well, I don’t believe it, and the record shows that gold bullion represents a solid store of value in times of economic and financial distress.

    Over the coming decade, global gold production will be static to declining while governments around the world continue to increase the money supply at a rapid rate.

    If there is an “event” and a crisis develops, they will print money even faster.

    The arithmetic is compelling.

    Total gold production since the beginning of time is estimated at 5 billion ounces valued at about $3.2 trillion at current prices now scattered around the world in jewellery, artifacts. and gold bars in safety deposit boxes.

    Annual gold production is now running at about 76 million ounces, which means that the above-ground stock of gold is increasing at about 1.5 percent per year.

    In contrast, central banks around the world are probably printing money and creating credit at the annual rate of 5 to 10 percent per annum.

    Recently in China the money supply has been increasing at a rate of 18 percent.

    These numbers dictate that gold prices are destined to go much higher.

    In short, the global supply of fiat paper money is increasing perhaps four times faster than the physical supply of gold bullion, and sooner or later this will be reflected in the market.

    It’s like a coiled spring.

    Major gold companies are not replacing reserves and major discoveries are incredibly rare.

    Investors forget that at most gold mines you have to move 35 to 40 tons of dirt and rock just to get one ounce.

    On the other hand, fiat paper money can be printed by pressing a button on a computer.

    It’s quite interesting if you’ve noticed what’s happening to paper money.

    Not so many years ago millions of dollars seemed like a lot of money. Then we started talking about hundreds of millions and then we were thinking in terms of billions.

    Then a billion became petty change and we started to talk in terms of hundreds of billions and now you hear the word “trillion” more and more.

    The next stage will be hundreds of trillions.

    Recently an “old master” painting was auctioned in New York for $94 million.

    Just based on common sense, we have to ask ourselves: Is that painting really worth $94 million, or has the U.S. dollar become just like so much confetti?

    I think we know the answer.

    When Mr. Nardelli was recently fired as CEO of Home Depot he received a settlement of $210 million. The CEO of Pfizer received a settlement of $240 million when he was let go.

    A condo in New York trades for $80 million.

    What does all this say about the value of money?

    Finally, there is a great deal of skepticism about the future of gold, which is a very positive factor.

    Investors forget that bear markets start when the skies are blue and bull markets start when despair and apathy are in the air.

    At present most major investors now regard gold and gold shares with apathy and even distain and are vastly underweight the sector.

    The vast majority of investors are so short-term oriented they just don’t see the big picture unfolding.

    When the price of crude oil bottomed out at $10.70 a barrel on Christmas Day in 1998 and the front cover of the Economist magazine was forecasting a glut of oil and a price of $5 a barrel, you couldn’t give oil or gas stocks away.

    Now just seven years later, even after the recent decline, the price of oil is up five times.

    What a difference a few years can make.

    Similarly, with the price of uranium at $7 a pound at the end of December 2000 you couldn’t give away either uranium or uranium stocks. Now that uranium has increased by 1,000 percent to $70 a pound, investors are driving uranium stocks to all-time highs.

    The market just didn’t see it coming — it happens all the time.

    So it is my view that, after a 20-year bear market from 1980 to 2000, the past few years represent a major positive turning point in the fundamental long-term outlook for gold bullion.

    Gold is a hedge against inflation and, as a result of the excesses of the past 15 years, I believe there is more inflation in the pipeline than is generally anticipated — perhaps quite a bit more — just like the 1970s.

    I believe any surprises on the inflation front will be on the upside.

    To some extent, I regret to say, all paper currencies are becoming somewhat suspect, and accordingly it is my view that gold bullion, rather than being the barbarous relic described by John Maynard Keynes, may well become the asset of choice for many investors over the coming decade.

    I have always been told to buy quality assets that are vastly undervalued and that have been ignored by the marketplace for a prolonged period.

    Notwithstanding the modest rise in gold prices over the past few years, that is where gold bullion is today, and it represents a great opportunity.

  154. Dr Jane Karlsson January 28, 2007 7:23 am

    kia 147, I’m sitting here with tears running down my cheeks, man. You wrote it, didn’t you, or you’d have said who did. Love it.

    ostrich 137, thanks, I’ve always wanted to take a peek at Le Metropole Cafe. Migod, are you really saying the gold shorts are biting the dust? Tell me more.

    You tossed the lipitor after a week? Brilliant. No, don’t eat canola oil. Can you get coconut or palm? If not, extra virgin olive oil is the best, hope muleskinner would agree.

  155. skeptical January 28, 2007 7:29 am

    BondBubble says “You idiot, if you say “dust bowl” happened in 1930s, I’m not sure how that equates to “problem of plenty”.”

    I NEVER said anything about “plenty” you idiot. Just because prices were low does NOT mean that there was plenty (the law of supply and demand does not always work when governments intervene). The dust bowl happened for a combination of reasons. First, climate. Second land was not being planted, cultivated, and watered by the farmers because they were going bankrupt. They couldn’t cover their property taxes and farm loans because they couldn’t make enough money selling their goods. They were going bankrupt. If there was plenty and prices were so HIGH (which also contradicts the laws of supply and demand) why were they going BANKRUPT, you moron? Why were they BEGGING congress to “do something” to help me (which resulted in the 1933 farm bill)?

    BB says “I understand that there were price supports - govt operated cooperative stores to purchase agricultural goods at high prices. So I do realize that prices were maintained high by govt support.”

    Why would government need price supports if the goods were already HIGH priced You idiot? Or was it those price supports (from low prices) that CAUSED high prices (that you are pointing to)?

    BB says “I’m not sure how this means to you that prices fell like crazy.”

    Duhhhh you idiot, why would price supports be NEEDED if commodities were so HIGH priced, bawhhhahahhahah.

    BB says “Also, if US was producing everything at 1/10th of the price, why would they need to pass the smoot-hawley act? ”

    BECAUSE they were producing “everything at 1/10th of the price”. The farmers were going broke. That act had to do with pricing support for agricultural products because prices had declined so much . It protected the farms from foreign goods so that domestic farmers could raise their prices. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff was a consequence of the onset of the Great Depression not a cause.

    BB says “If you make everything cheap, why not dare any competitor to sell into US market at cheap price? ”

    Beaucase they were going broke! They were NOT making everything so cheap, who said they were. I said prices were low and that was causing GREAT DISTRESS with the farmers. What part of going broke don’t you understand you moron?

    BB says “Again, Jim Rogers has published a book saying commodities soared in 1933 right through deflation.”

    I have not read his book, but I believe any “soaring” was the direct RESULT of Smoot and other draconian “measures” that CONgree took to raise the prices that had collapsed in the US you idiot.

    BB Says ” This is obvious because, govt spent tons and tons of money on projects like Hoover dam (did you know that the cement used in hover dam can build the complete I-90?), Tenneesee valley proj etc. ”

    These projects increased a LOW deficit to a very high deficit and gave price support to commodities that HAD BEEN FAILING, you moron. HOW is the US going to do that in the future when they start out with a VERY HIGH deficit now?

    BB Says “Just because price was maintained high other industries had trouble surviving against govt spending - that is why deflation was so painful.”

    Prices weren’t maintained high, they were DRIVEN high by government interferrence in the “free” markets. Why did the gvmnt feel the need to buy up all these commodities if their prices were holding their values or rising? Duuhhhhhh

    BB Says “Finally, to give you proof of inflation in 1930s:
    1) GoTo http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ and look for consumer inflation data from 1920s. Even in the revised CPI data (by BLS), you will see CPI was negative only for 2 years and was about 4% from 1933 onwards (monthly data also available). ”

    Well Prodcucer price index DIVED almost 50% from 1929 to 1933 you moron. And negative cpi for two years IS the effect of deflation you idiot. Also I would hardly consider 4% as HIGH inflation but since the govmnt was trying their damdest to create inflation I dont think ANYONE here or anywhere would argue that they were SOMEWHAT successful at REFLATION.

    BB Says “(It was +10% in 1932!!! - go look for it yourself you moron. ”

    I can’t find any such statistic you moron.

    BB Says “If food prices were falling, real estate was falling, what the fuck was appreciating to cause CPI to be 10%?).”

    I dont’ know “what the fuck” was appreciating. I think that would be very informative information but you need to tell us WTF was appreciating since YOU are the one making the statement.

    BB says “You fail to see what hoarding means and what “Stickiness of price” means. ”

    I fail to see no such thing. Again you are making assumptions and putting words into my mouth you moron?

    BB Says “I’ve never seen anyone dare to talk about these two items as this is what “GDepression” was all about!!”

    Well IF this is what the GD was all about then you would have seen SOMEONE talk about it. The fact that you have NOT seen any talk means it probably (I was not there so I cant say) was NOT an issue.

    BB Says “2) Below is the link on Jim Grant article. Apparently,Grant was analyzing the mortgage history of a building completed right before depression. The owner defaulted on this building - even though the interest rate was low single digit (on the mortgage). Look at some of the expenses these guys have to endure. Oil prices soared 71%!!! ”

    Well if the building was completed BEFORE the depression then all you are showing is that there was very high INFLATION BEFORE there was DEFLATION, duuuhhhhh.

    BB says “Ofcourse, a stupid ass like you will not believe the history recorded by a building owner - recorded as and when things happened - but you will chose to stupidly claim “ALL PRICES FELL”. Nice try you jackass.”

    Well you jackass, I do absolutely believe that prices were very high BEFORE the depression as I am a firm believer that DEFLATION FOLLOWS INFLATION you stupid ass idiot.

    BB Says “http://www.institutionaladvisors.com/pdf/060829%20CONSEQUENCE_OF_REAL_ESTATE_BUBBLES.pdf
    Go To Page 3, bottommost, rightmost column. Oil prices soared 71% and hence they moved to coal fired heating!!!”

    Correct you jackass, that was during the roaring 20s. Why do you think they referred to that era as ROARING. INFLATION WAS ROARING just like today you moron.

    BB Says “3) Again, that CPI increased was “officially recorded” by none other than Wash. Fed. Gov. Adolph Miller (1929). Ofcourse, you might say, Fed Gov Miller is an idiot, does not know what inflation means, BAWAHBAHH…. But, I’ll believe a Fed Gov of 1929 who recorded this in 1929 rather than a stupid ass like you:
    http://www.safehaven.com/article-526.htm
    “….in 1928-29: ….”

    HUMM I beleive 1929 was BEFORE THE DEPRESSION and DEFLATION!!!!! BAhahahahahahahaha you jackass.

    BondBubble says ” Ben Franklin said, the rich guys have to hang out togather or else be hanged individually. In a depression, I believe everyone wanted this to be resolved sincerely. As per Occam’s Razor, the simplest straight forward explanation is the right one. There was inflation as speculative juices were flowing into “essential” stuff (from the non-essential stuff like Assets) and that is why Fed raised interest rate in 1929!! ”

    Right you moron, they broke the speculative bubble by raising rates in an extremely INFLATIONARY envrionment like today. Hummm I guess we may see the real estate bubble collapse after the feds next rate hike. YOu imbicile don’t you know 1929 was the inflationary move BEFORE the deflationary collapse????

    BB Says “That caused credit deflation. There is no twist, convoluted logic like it can be prevented, conspiracies, jews etc. It is extremely simple and straight forward: Credit inflation causes “essential price inflation” after whatever period it takes (all the while creation of inflation in assets are ignored). When the fed chooses to tackle the “essential price inflation”, all the assets gets liquidated, and those “rich” people try to convert their assets into “essential goods”/hoarding. ”

    Well we agree on one thing. However, in a CREDIT environment, one needs actual savings, cash, or a HIGH risk tolerance to take out loans in a deflationary environment. So those “rich” people who haven’t lost their wealth may VERY WELL move their “money” into hard assets. SO WHAT?????

    BB Says “This is the painful part. That is why Fed will choose deflation. No conspiracies, no inabilities, no stupidities, no looting …. ”

    Ok we agree on two points.

  156. Dr Jane Karlsson January 28, 2007 7:32 am

    ostrich 137, I’ve just realised what you meant. You were taking lipitor because you thought the fat you were eating was putting your cholesterol up. It isn’t true. It’s vitamin and mineral deficiency that gives you ‘bad cholesterol’.

  157. Dr Jane Karlsson January 28, 2007 8:01 am

    stranger 146, sorry, it was you and not ostrich that told me about Le Metropole Cafe and the gold shorts. Please tell me more, if you know more. Would also appreciate your comments on this article suggesting Saudi oil production is dropping fast: http://www.rense.com/general73/to9p.htm

  158. muleskinner January 28, 2007 8:49 am

    As long as it isn’t partially hydrogenated.

    Ostrich, you must be referring to Kenex.

    When margarine was first marketed, it had to have no coloring added to the product. The yellow coloring had to be in a separate container.

    I’ve been a vegetarian, vegan even. One night, I was dreaming about eating roast beef sandwiches, so my vegan days ended. I was very concerned about the food I had been eating since birth, so I went on a fast for sixteen days when I was 28. Read the writings of Arnold Ehret.

    Arnold taught me much more about nutrition than I ever knew before I discovered his writings.

    The book by Marsten Bates, Gluttons and Libertines, is worth reading. “Anyone who claims to be expert in food or sex is to be considered crackpot.”

    With gmos, herbicides, pesticides, uv light sterilization, the food part of the statement is out the window. It no longer applies.

    You are what you eat. I want farm fresh eggs because I have no idea how long the eggs in the grocery store have been around. When the egg is still in the chicken coop, I’m the proverbial fox.

    Party at the Great Mogambo’s until the beer and pizza are gone. If you haven’t seen the movie ‘Beerfest,’ don’t miss it. Too funny.

    There is no such thing as ‘beer shortage or beer deflation.’ It won’t happen.

    My latest batch is Oktoberfest. The cooked version, not the shortened kit version.

    Just when you get that storehouse of gold filled to the rafters, some nitwit socialistic politician comes along and says you can’t have any.

  159. kia January 28, 2007 8:58 am

    Jane (#147)

    Crying and laughing are medicine, besides can’t write this serious stuff all the time;-)

  160. kia January 28, 2007 9:13 am

    Piero Suarez, and all gold investors.

    What is your reaction to this?

    http://www.ameinfo.com/108894.html

    Peace

  161. Piero Suarez January 28, 2007 9:42 am

    Hi Kia,

    I was aware of this. If it happenes gold will move up soon. I have a feeling they will drag their feet on this accouting change. When all central banks of the world are increasing the money supply (INFLATING!) at rates between 5 and 20% yearly, nobody wants gold moving up — gold moving up increases INFLATION EXPECTATION. The central banking business is: Inflate while fooling the people. So you want to inflate and keep people thinking in low inflation rates or even in deflation. In fact, a deflation scare would be a great smoke screen to increase inflation.

    I hope the people on this blog can stay cool and nice to each other. Remember, no matter what ends up happening, we are all on the same team. We are debating these subjects to be better prepared. I hope we can focus our collective energy in finding the investment vehicules (I think gold and silver) that will better protect us in both senarios — inflation or deflation.

    Best, Piero

  162. BondBubble January 28, 2007 10:22 am

    Skeptical Asshole, you are shit scared to even look into the evidence I provided. But you just want to fart as if you know what you are talking about.
    1) In the BLS website, there is CPI data and if you open the data in excel, you will see that inflation was PLUS 10% in 1932 (every month for y-o-y comparison). Also, the the deflation in the first 2 years was less than a grand total of 15%.
    2) In the Grant’s article, the oil price soared 71% in 1933 - again you piece of shit, why dont you just read and then fart. You want to hijack the argument that inflation soared pre-deflation.

    Ofcourse, shit heads like you will not accept logical explanations. If one provides evidence, you will run shit scared from it. I dont deny that lot of prices like stocks, houses, bonds (non-govt) fell. But that does not mean everything else fell. If CPI rose 10% in 1932 (and housing cost was falling, which would have been 30% component I assume), something else essential to live must have soared so high to cause the overall inflation to be 10%.

    Also, if you read Murray Rothbard (AGD), food production increased early in the depression (Hoover’s policy of agri support) - precisely because govt support was allowing farmers to overproduce. Dust bowl came later.

    Asshole said: “Duhhhh you idiot, why would price supports be NEEDED if commodities were so HIGH priced, bawhhhahahhahah”

    “Price Support” is probably the wrong term for what happened. “Demand support” is probably the right term. Govt resorted to buy whatever was produced at a fixed price - pre-depression price. Govt set up cooperatives and bought all the agricultural stuff because foreign countries stopped buying. Since there was excessive production (supposedly to sell into foreign markets). Govt decided to buy the excessive production at pre-depression prices. You can call it as price support. I call it as demand support. However, because of this prices never fell and in fact more agri goods were produced because of the govt support (in 1931). Read Murray Rothbard’s America Great Depr. Dont ask for page numbers you lazy stupid.

  163. muleskinner January 28, 2007 10:35 am

    Why did beer and wine come into existence?

    Anyone? Bueller?

    A. Because you couldn’t drink the water!

    Prozac had twenty-seven deaths attributed to its use BEFORE it was approved by the FDA.

    The snake oil that pharma advertises and distributes kill a lot of people.

    Why has cannabis made a resurgence in the post-modern world?

    A. It’s efficacy has been proven beyond all doubt and it has never been the cause of death after its use by humans. Its nine thousand year history is all the evidence you need.

    “I’ll shut up my mug if you give me a jug of that good ol’ Mountain Dew.”

    Meaning that I won’t tell the Revenuers where the still is that you have hidden up on Bear Creek.

    Whiskey Rebellion

    Why have the price of gold go outta sight? So the average Joe can’t even afford to have any? If the average Joe has a few ounces, trick him into selling it by giving him thousands of fiat bucks? Confiscation by proxy?

  164. kia January 28, 2007 11:07 am

    Here’s a nice story on how news is manufactured at the White House:

    http://www.rawstory.com/showarticle.php?src=http%3A%2F%2Fapnews.myway.com%2Farticle%2F20070127%2FD8MTOPK00.html

    Believe or not, Believe it or else!

  165. kia January 28, 2007 11:17 am

    Hola Piero,

    Thank you for your response, I have two questions:

    1) why would central bankers change the rules to make it more difficult to manipulate the price of gold?

    2) what are your recommendations for investing in gold/silver? Wouldn’t they deflate with everything else?

    Thank you also for your comments regarding maintaining civility in this blog. I’ve always thought that concentrating on the facts before us is the best way for all of us to be on an upward spiral. The disparaging language directed at others does little to support their arguments or enlighten anyone. Maybe they should go watch some programming on the electronic sewer pipe where they can watch people scream at each other.

    Peace and Respect to All

  166. kia January 28, 2007 11:32 am

    Jane,

    I’m sure this is old hat to you, but this is from one of my favorite nutrition journalists:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/28/magazine/28nutritionism.t.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin

  167. Piero Suarez January 28, 2007 11:59 am

    Hola Kia,

    I do not know the anwser to question 1. I do not know what might be motivating this change. I was surprised when I saw it. Just the fact that the story was even brought up is amazing, since it informs people that the current accouting might not accurately represent the gold inventory in bank vaults. This news is positive for gold and worse case, no change will occur.

    Here is the most recent story regading this:
    http://www.ameinfo.com/108894.html

    2) I feel EFTs are not safe. In fact, it is convenient for governments that precious metals (for invesment) are being concentrated in a few large funds. If they want to confiscate these metals (as they have done before!), they know exactly where to go get it. I feel there is nothing like buying physical metals. I recommend coins (silver and gold) that have the least premium (don’t get collectors coins) over spot prices. Silver will go up more than gold on a percentage basis.

    Regarding the second part of your question: Will they deflate? If you believe in an inflationary outcome (which I do) the anwser is no. If you believe in a deflationary outcome then please look at my post (#152) starting in paragraph that says :”Finally, let me ask the deflation camp the following:”

    As of now, I do not know what investment will perform better than gold and silver under either of the senarios. I think your worst case senario in a deflationary case would be for gold and silver to keep their current purchasing power relative to other things.

    Since dollar is fiat, there is a large risk that faith in fiat will be lost and even under a monetary supply contraction (deflation), gold and silver might still go up since no one will want PAPER PROMISES.

    Deflationary camp says to invest in short term treasuries. The problem is that deflaton will probably bring depression and this could very easily create serious confidence problem in fiat. Also, even if deflation is the eventual outcome, as of now, treasuries yield about 5%, but monetary growth is around 10%. So every year you wait, you lose 5% of your capital.

    In the US M3 is growing at 10.5%; BANANA COUNTRY RATES!
    http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/data
    http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html

    And inflation (if calculated using pre-clinton era methodogy - not magically
    and hedonically adjusted) is running between 5% to 7% in the US.
    http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/

    Piero

  168. kia January 28, 2007 12:37 pm

    Hola Piero,

    Thanks for your thoughtful answers. I too am curious why they would change the rules to make it more difficult for the Gold Cartel to manipulate the spot prices.

    I have a friend who has been investing in physical gold for the last six years and recently decided to switch to nusimatic (sp?) coins, as they were not confiscated in the late ’20s. I understand that you recommend against such collector coins. Is this because of the additional premium?

    Finally do you have any dealers you prefer. I live in a very remote location so generally the mail is the only way I will be able to accumulate them.

    Gracias para sus piensas!

    Paz

  169. Piero Suarez January 28, 2007 1:11 pm

    Kia,

    I do not know where you are located. You need to find a way to buy the coins in such a way as to not leave a bank trail. Even if confiscation comes, you do not deliver the coints. Collector coins might or might not be confiscated this time (there is no way to know). However, you risk losing all or part of the premium. The premium of collector coins has been decreasing even though the price of gold has been increasing! Of course, the premium is the problem and a uncertainty.

    Transactions ofer 10,000 dollars are defenitively recorded. You might try buying coins with cash in several transactions under this number. I have heard that transactions over 2,500 are recorded. I do not know for sure in the US. If you buy IN CASH coins under 2,500 you will be save of leaving trails I suppose. Probably the coin dealer can help you with privacy issues.

    I do not live in the US and can not recommend any dealer. I have no experience in US. You might want to get a trial subscription to: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

    Piero

  170. ostrich January 28, 2007 1:31 pm

    Jane and muleskinner - Thanks
    I use non-hydrogenated canola margarine for toast and sometimes oil. Mostly due to heritage its extra virgin olive oil (lots of garlic).
    Kenex? I buy omega 3 eggs when you check for freshness make sure the eggs aren’t spotted (how i was taught).
    vitamins- I started taking 1500iu’s of vitamin c when I tossed the lipitor due to wild chest pain; I normally eat 7-10 fruits and vegetables per day; lifestyle sucks - knee surgery, poor mee’s,and plain laziness(lately) I have only put about 100 miles on my bicycle in 2 years instead of 100+ miles per week.
    Any suggestions are greatly appreciated, my hdl is almost the same as ldl so why isn’t it cleaning it out.
    Many thanks

  171. ostrich January 28, 2007 1:40 pm

    Kia & Piero I have not used this service but you may want to check it out http://www.goldmoney.com/
    Piero if you work for RBC i think the only reporting requirement is for transactions >$10,000 but it has been a long time since I was in banking.
    Muleskinner can’t comment on beer but wine came into existence because someone invented marinarra and pomdorra sauces haha.

  172. muleskinner January 28, 2007 1:45 pm
  173. bp January 28, 2007 4:15 pm

    muleskinner #158 - cooked? - hope you mean all grain, hehe - me I’m doing a clone of Sierra Nevada Celebration - to stay warm of course

  174. kia January 28, 2007 4:31 pm

    Piero,

    Thanks for your thoughts. Are you in London?

    Bp and muleskinner, got some recipes? I’m working with a 10 gallon system.

    Brew ON!

  175. bp January 28, 2007 4:40 pm

    #168 kia - check this dealer - I’ve used them - http://www.golddealer.com/bullionpage.html

    if you want 90% Ave Circ Silver Coin Pre-65 they show it by $1000 face value (price around $9400 for 715 ounce) but I understand you can ask for $500 face value lot - still a bit of change, though

    Piero Suarez, I appreciate your comments - I know BB and skeptical are ranting a bit, but I think some of it is just letting off steam. I think their conversation is informative. Do you have any insights into the area they’re discussing - if you don’t mind venturing into their field of play, heh

  176. kia January 28, 2007 4:57 pm

    bp, I like your attitude, thanks for the rec.

  177. muleskinner January 28, 2007 6:33 pm

    Ostrich, thanks for helping me pull my head out of the sand. I had my twenty mule team hooked up and I still couldn’t do it. I was passed out from exhaustion. When you’re head is stuck in the sand, you’re stuck.

    I make 6.5 gallons each time. All grain, yes. Roasted barley, malt syrup, and pellet hops. Years ago, I grew my own yeast, but it’s too easy to just add the packet these days. I picked some hops the other day, so I hope to start a new batch from scratch.

    The Decider, George, was on tv the other day talking about how he is the decider who makes the decisions. He had on a medium blue shirt with a solid gold (colored) tie. He decided to dress like a clown that day. Based upon his decisions, he made the right choice, clown clothing. I can’t blame him, he’s surrounded by jokers. For god sakes, George, where a dark suit with a white shirt, a blue striped tie, and quit acting like a clown. If not, go find a rodeo to work. You can’t rodeo if you don’t know how to rope and ride.

  178. Ian January 28, 2007 7:02 pm

    Inflation is already out there, meaning the dollars printed. The US consumer will not be the source of inflation. The countries in Asia with the trillions of dollars will be shopping the resources they need to build their infrastructures. The new found wealth of the general populous of Asia will also become the new consumers, just as we in America. Those American dollars will be coming home some day soon.
    If the scenario of deflation in America plays out, the triple Federal deficits could never be repaid, because the GDP could be a fraction of just the interest payments on that debt. Household, corporate and local Governments would never repay their debts. But the Asians could come in and buy America in cash and have some pocket change left. It is in the best interest of a debtor nation to inflate away obligations then to increase the burden by way of deflation.
    This is the business cycle that occurred 30 years ago and it’ll be the same this time around. The money’s already out there. To stem the flow of dollars coming home, the Fed has to raise interest rates. (again)

  179. mikeck44 January 28, 2007 7:15 pm

    All,
    This list of dealers is from GATA. I’ve used several, some listed here and some not. Call several and get comparisons. Some on this list are much more expensive than others. I’ve always used the mail because of where I live and the convenience. I expect that I will have sold everything at a loss before any confiscation begins.

    BTW I agree with Piero that the price just about has to go up, especially silver. Read Ted Butler’s work for reasons why. Also, The Moneychanger has a couple of good articles on his website about confiscation.

    Mike

    Recommended Gold & Bullion Dealers
    Coin and precious metals dealers who have supported GATA
    and been recommended by our members:

    Blanchard & Co. Inc.
    909 Poydras St., Suite 1900 New Orleans, Louisiana 70112
    888-413-4653
    http://www.blanchardonline.com/

    Centennial Precious Metals
    Box 460009
    Denver, Colorado 80246-0009
    1-800-869-5115
    http://www.usagold.com/
    Michael Kosares, Proprietor
    cpm@usagold.com

    Colorado Gold
    222 South 5th St. Montrose, Colorado 81401
    http://www.coloradogold.com/
    Don Stott, Proprietor
    1-888-786-8822
    Gold@gwe.net

    El Dorado Discount Gold
    Box 11296
    Glendale, Arizona 85316
    http://www.eldoradogold.net/
    Harvey Gordin, President
    Office: 623-434-3322
    Mobile: 602-228-8203
    harvey@eldoradogold.net

    Gold & Silver Investments Ltd.
    Mespil House
    37 Adelaide Rd Dublin 2 Ireland
    +353 1 2315260/6
    Fax: +353 1 2315202
    http://www.goldinvestments.org/
    info@gold.ie

    Investment Rarities Inc.
    7850 Metro Parkway Minneapolis, Minnesota 55425
    http://www.gloomdoom.com/
    Greg Westgaard, Sales Manager
    1-800-328-1860, Ext. 8889
    gwestgaard@investmentrarities.com

    Kitco
    178 West Service Road Champlain, N.Y. 12919
    Toll Free:1-877-775-4826
    Fax: 518-298-3457
    and
    620 Cathcart, Suite 900 Montreal, Quebec H3B 1M1 Canada
    Toll-free:1-800-363-7053
    Fax: 514-875-6484
    http://www.kitco.com/

    Lee Certified Coins
    P.O. Box 1045
    454 Daniel Webster Highway Merrimack, New Hampshire 03054
    http://www.certifiedcoins.com/
    Ed Lee, Proprietor
    1-800-835-6000
    leecoins@aol.com

    Lone Star Silver Exchange
    Suite 635, 3521 Oak Lawn Ave. Dallas, Texas 75219
    214-632-8869
    http://www.discountsilverclub.com/

    MRCS Canada
    12303-118 Ave. NW Edmonton, Alberta T5L 2K2 Canada
    http://www.mrcscanada.com/
    Michael Riedel, Proprietor
    1-877-TRY-MRCS
    1-877-879-6727
    mrcscanada@shaw.ca

    Miles Franklin Ltd.
    1001 Twelve Oaks Center Drive Suite 1028 Wayzata, MN 55391
    1-800-822-8080
    http://www.milesfranklin.com/
    Contacts: David Schectman,
    Andy Schectman, and Bob Sichel

    Missouri Coin Co.
    11742 Manchester Road St. Louis, MO 63131-4614
    info@mocoin.com
    314-965-9797
    1-800-280-9797
    http://www.mocoin.com/

    Resource Consultants Inc.
    6139 South Rural Road Suite 103 Tempe, Arizona 85283-2929
    Pat Gorman, Proprietor
    1-800-494-4149, 480-820-5877
    Metalguys@aol.com
    http://www.buysilvernow.com/

    Swiss America Trading Corp.
    15018 North Tatum Blvd. Phoenix, Arizona 85032
    http://www.swissamerica.com/
    Dr. Fred I. Goldstein, Senior Broker
    1-800-BUY-COIN
    FiGoldstein@swissamerica.com

    The Moneychanger
    Box 178
    Westpoint, Tennessee 38486
    http://www.the-moneychanger.com/
    Franklin Sanders
    1-888-218-9226, 931-766-6066

  180. the stranger January 28, 2007 8:42 pm

    Jane, the gold short is part of the paper game to manipulate the price of gold. GATA has a mountain of evidence on it. If I find a good summery, I’ll link to it.

    The article you asked what I thought of is a cut-n-paste of some comments by George Ure at Urban Survival Site. Unfortunately there is empirical data to back up the uncomfortable conclusions. Check out TOD, Matthew Simmons, and Die-off. Of course, if abiotic-oil is regenerating crude, we should see no interruptions in the 85 million barrels per day, and the population can continue to grow. Why do you ask?

    Piero Suarez, I’ve been trying to distill my thoughts on deflation, you hit them all and then some, with Ian as an end-cap.

    Kia – from yesterdays Midas Report at the James Loyce Table. I guess I can post this excerpt since you all could access this from the free trial

    Points to be made on the above commentaries:
    1. It is no surprise to GATA that the IMF would go into some sort of damage control over this matter. It is about the GOLD ATOMIC BOMB. Chris Powell said as much when the initial IMF gold accounting change proposal was first discovered last year by Blanchard and company, having been written by IMF staffers.
    2. The IMF is a large organization. Most of those in that organization have no clue what is really going on. They don’t understand the motive behind including gold loans as part of reserves. Only those at the very top appreciate the real story. It is very likely that those in the know are now getting wind of the changes in the works, and have raised some objections.
    3. Blanchard (a savvy Neal Ryan did the work) WAS TOLD the reserve asset committee had already made the decision to separate gold loans from gold reserves, but the implementation of these changes WOULD TAKE AS LONG AS A YEAR. Why it would take a year to say is what is beyond me, but that is the supposed deal.
    Blanchard was informed by committee members that the issue has been decided, the debate they are undertaking now is how to implement those changes, not if the changes are accepted.
    4. Regardless of what was decided, or the outcome, you would think the dopey gold world would be jumping up and down for joy and urging the IMF on to set the record straight. All we are talking about here is the truth. What is wrong about knowing the truth about the true status of central bank gold holdings? The World Gold Council ought to be all over this. Yep, we know … that would be too much to ask of those lightweights.
    5. As far as what Dennis G said about gold running up, I said once the facts were known the price of gold would double … and I stand by that. The key is the investment world understanding the central banks really only have half the gold they say they have. He said, she said stuff about the changes of the rules is NOT the central banks reporting the real deal.
    6. The reasoning for the "price doubling call" is quite simple. The revelations would:
    *Show gold demand over the past decade has been FAR higher than reported.

  181. Dr Jane Karlsson January 29, 2007 5:16 am

    kia 166, yes that journalist REALLY does know what he’s talking about. Thanks. One comment: everyone says we are descended from monkeys, so we should eat fruit, right? And they say grains are a recent addition to our diet, and therefore maybe not so good for us even if they’re whole grains.

    Well, my first degree is in zoology, and I was trained here in Oxford where the emphasis is on comparative anatomy. To me, everything about humans from our teeth and digestive arrangements to our upright stance and flat feet, says we are primarily plains-dwellers and grain-eaters. I think your journalist might be interested to hear this, because it’s the missing link in his otherwise complete and very well-thought-out arguments.

    ostrich 170, would you consider eating butter instead of margarine?

    Might you also consider scrapping the vitamin C? If you have heart problems, it means you are probably short of copper, and high-dose vitamin C has been found to cause copper deficiency. Copper is needed to repair blood vessels, and most people are short of it, although most doctors will tell you they aren’t.

    People take vitamin C because it’s an ‘antioxidant’, but it can’t work without manganese, which again most doctors don’t know. Manganese is actually the most important antioxidant, because it protects mitochondria, those little things inside cells that produce energy. If your mitochondria are working well, everything else will be, too.

    You really can’t beat unrefined carbohydrate as a source of copper and manganese. Wholemeal bread (NOT the supermarket kind), brown rice, oats, unpeeled potatoes etc. It is also a good source of omega-3s, you will be surprised to hear.

  182. Sapiens January 29, 2007 5:20 am

    For those of you whom only have a theological or philosophical background into the study of evil and harm done by evil people, check out this book. The author does a great introduction into the scientific study of evil

    http://www.qfgpublishing.com/product_info.php?products_id=54&osCsid=fa25795324cbe101f6eaf92c2a960fcf

    The Scientific Study of Evil Adjusted for Political Purposes

    by Andrew M. Lobaczewski

    The reason we don’t seem to understand those that cause harm without regard to others is because they are really different and don’t have a clue what it is to have a conscience.

    -Sapiens

  183. Dr Jane Karlsson January 29, 2007 5:25 am

    bp 175, Kia’s right. I like your attitude too. You once said that to me, and wow was I complimented.

  184. Makia January 29, 2007 5:49 am

    kia #147. sweet.

  185. Dr Jane Karlsson January 29, 2007 5:56 am

    Sapiens 180, thanks, I’m very interested in that subject. The computer I’m on right now won’t download it, dammit.

  186. muleskinner January 29, 2007 6:20 am

    Evel Knievel isn’t evil.

    Evil schmevil

    The Day After Trinity

    “Now We are all sons of bitches.” - Kenneth Bainbridge to J. Robert Oppenheimer

  187. muleskinner January 29, 2007 7:05 am

    Along with it all, Hillary had to put up with that bastard Clinton all those years.

    Bill Clinton is best buddies with George Bush I.

    Something is wrong with the picture.

    It is stupidity, not evil that is the problem.

    Would you say that Bill Clinton has a plethora of stupidity? George isn’t alone in that department. Both are two clueless twits that know a total of nothing.

    Deflate the US government, it is THE problem.

    “The didactic assaults the fortress of my mind, but the story goes through the back of my heart.”

  188. Makia January 29, 2007 7:09 am

    Skeptical, #155: I’m glad i wasn’t at the receiving end of that! But ya gotta love some friendly competition. :-) Sorry BB.

  189. zephyr January 29, 2007 7:15 am

    I hate missing a few days…yes, BP, I was working…I know it’s shocking…. Anyway, Kia 147 was beyond priceless. It was so good I’m using a word from that stupid Mastercard commercial I’ve grown to despise.

    Dr Jane, is there anything you don’t know? It’s nice to have our own resident guru on this sight. I’m going to start calling you the Oracle as in the Matrix movies. By the way, is avocado oil good for you? I love it’s taste and have read good things about it’s use. And why is palm oil so good?

    Muleskinner 163, you are right about the Pharmo’s. I brother recently was prescribed Zoloft and ended up in the emergency room with severe anxiety/depression. And you’re right about gold. Most people I talk to now won’t touch it because they think it’s sooooooo expensive! Can’t wait to see what they think later.

    144 Skeptical, that is an obvious one. Kia, 142, also dead nuts on. Unfortunately, most people have no clue. I was at work the other day and was talking about thing most of us know are painfully obvious. The CIA is a drug runner for easy liquidity, the PTB are purposely driving the poor ol’ dollar into the ground so they will have a good excuse to introduce the Amero. Everyone at work thought I was a stark, raving lunatic. Problem is basic psychology….most people project their way of thinking onto others until blatently proven otherwise. It is way beyond their way of thinking that people would voluntarily destroy the current reserve currency. That’s why these people can so easily continue doing what they’re doing….the public has their ears plugged while they hum a tune to themselves. They don’t want to know or believe such things are possible.

  190. Makia January 29, 2007 7:19 am

    I would say that George I and William Clinton are about as stupid as two foxes. Two foxes that are not that stupid if you catch what i’m saying.

    I mean, i have a hard time calling people evil, but it’s hard for me to imagine that those guys are not somewhat intelligent. And if their more than somewhat intelligent, then we would probably classify them as evil if we knew the decisions they made, with will. They probably “thought” they have acted for the “greater good,” but i highly doubt that thier (and most of the intelligencia) idea of the greater good doesn’t “jive” with mine.

    I mean, George I was around for a LONG time, and still is very much, i’m sure. If those guys aren’t evil, they are still very intelligent. Hollow, but cunning i’m sure.

    This is the difficulty in seeing _who_ are the driving forces in these big schemes, and what are thier true motivations. Fact is, even if the greatest Con Schemes aren’t actually duplicitous in nature and the stuff of sci-fiction books, it stands to reason and to evidence that powerful people work together; in secret more often than in the eye of public scrutiny. Probably each of us can imagine having the resources and influence to make “big” things happen, and what we might do. Well, they do it.

    One might wonder, however, how that kind of power behaves once woven into a bloodline for generations. That’s what most of us will never know. One can surmise, again through reason and evidence. . .

  191. muleskinner January 29, 2007 7:35 am

    What would you rather be?

    Smart enough to be dumb enough or dumb enough to be smart enough?

  192. muleskinner January 29, 2007 8:04 am

    That would be ‘wear’ a suit.

    I make my share of dumb mistakes.

    Ridiculous spelling errors are forgivable, invading foreign lands and lying to billions of people all of the time are cruel jokes on humanity. I’ll let the creator decide if it is forgivable or not.

    Actions speak louder than words.

    George Bush can squirm in the White House for the next two years, saddled with the anxiety of what he has wrought. It’ll be good for him.

  193. zephyr January 29, 2007 8:09 am

    As I’m still catching up, the spat between bondbubble and skeptical makes some of my stronger statements look like a British butler speaking to the master of the house. I say let them hash it out…sometimes it’s good to blow off a little steam as long as it doesn’t get too personal and it doesn’t linger to long. Both made decent points but based on prior posts I’ll side with Skeptical….Skeptical wins on an 11th round TKO :-)

    Kia, haven’t read the links you sent, been working, But I will read and then comment.

    Three cheers to Muleskinner as the word of the day is untermenschen as seen in post 139!

    Sapiens 77 “I contemplated not responding since usually I feel that sharing the truth with people for free is a waste of my time.” I sure hope you’re joking. Even though I have a general disdain for the ignorant, I would never try to make a buck off of another’s disadvantage or misfortune. There’s too much of that in the world that makes it an ugly place at times. I would refuse to do something for a living that would make me look at another as a dollar sign rather than as a human being. Sorry if I’m misinterpreting an attempt at humor, but if you’re serious, you’re seriously deluded in thinking what you have to say is of that much more value than what I already know or what others here on this site share freely out of their goodness. However, again, if you WERE joking I apologize.

    Darren 89, “perhaps the best thing for the survival of the US is to start a war because it might stop a civil war because the masses will be getting what they want in a negative, angry mood environment.” WOW!!! I didn’t know Henry Kissinger was posting under an alias!! Hey, look everybody, I found proof that God exists….and he’s posting. Darren, are you fucking kidding!!!! That idea was not thought out!!! THAT’S what the US has been doing for years as some sort of petulant, rich, bullying, ADD child. I guess it’s true, everybody else in the world has less value than a US citizen (stand up and salute now). I don’t know what else to say except that statement sums up what is wrong with our “great” nation. Thanks Darren, you get the honorary Kastor award for ignorance!!

  194. Makia January 29, 2007 8:38 am

    Dumb enough to be smart enough to. . . wear a suit? . . or smart enough to be dumb enough. . . to wear? . . a . . .?

    I think that made me retarded. Thanks muleskinner.

  195. kia January 29, 2007 8:39 am

    Zephyr, and All,

    This article might shed a little light on the syndrome we are discussing:

    http://www.theforbiddenknowledge.com/hardtruth/silentweaponsforquietwars.htm

    I have no way to verify it’s source, but it’s contents speak volumes.

    Peace

  196. muleskinner January 29, 2007 9:16 am

    Be smart enough to be dumb enough. If you are dumb enough to be smart enough, you end up with more troubles than you care to have. The Bush Administration is finding out too late.

    In the words of Sargent Schultz: “I know nothing. Nothing.”

    Ignorance is bliss. There is an excuse for ignorance, but not for stupidity.

    No doubt about it, evil exists. I don’t have to know anymore than that. It is easier to hate than it is to love. If you really want to know, google Arliss Perry.

    If you always try to do the right thing, you can live with a clear conscience. “Always let your conscience be your guide.” It may seem hokey, even simple-minded, but the reality is, it’s not.

  197. Makia January 29, 2007 9:26 am

    Kia, this “finding” was published in a book called “Behold a Pale Horse,” by William Cooper.

    Zephyr and i butted heads on at least one of Bill’s conclusions (not related to this document) about John Paul II.

    I could say a lot about the book, but i’ll just say this: People owe it to themselves to read this book. There are few NWO Conspiracy Theory resources that match up.

    Bill was in Naval Intelligence. He saw UFOs while on a sub, with other sailors. He saw a few things, but it took him decades find/be interested in any patterns. In the end, a solid case can be made for the manipulation and even murder of many by the few. A solid case can be made that the US Govt/US Mil/CIA have a ton of knowldege about “UFO”s (though they might not be that “unidentified”) At the same time, Bill proposed that much of the information that he had uncovered might be (and even likely is) a hodgepodge of leaked facts and leaked lies- put there to capture the attention of those that beleive in insidious global conspiracies, and then have within the truths the ammo to discredit it. Bill “knew” that there are people in the “media” who posed as curious journalists/authors but were actually CIA operatives leaking these red herrings and misinformation.

    One of Bill’s greatest points was that if the (verifiable and credible) facts that he had uncovered and leaked to him were to deflect attention from something else, then what could be being covered up?!?! Why would the gov’t leak tons of information about aliens, while denying that they exist, in the face of eye-witness reports from military and civilian airmen around the world?

    Bill was controversial to say the least. After his initial publication, he veered from UFOlogy b/c of the stigma. He ran a small radio station and broadcast a show where he talked about politics and money, in the vein of BullnotBull discussions. He called himself a Patriot. From what i’ve seen of him, well, he represents a strong side of me - either skillfully observant or clinically paranoid.

    They killed him. There’s a lot of conflicting info about him on the net. Part of this i’m sure is more of the “We can never really be sure” campaign that is run against thinkers like us. At the same time, the reports of his death seem consistent. He was set up in an awkward position by law enforcement that knew what they wre doing (he was friends with his local law enforcement, it was higher-ups that made sure he got dead). He was shot in the head without any indication that he did anything to evade question or capture.

    At best it was a mistake,

    but i hope i’m never involved in anything where someone “accidentally” gets shot in the head.

    SILENT WEAPONS FOR QUIET WARS

    Yes. This is what we’re up against.

  198. Agent0 January 29, 2007 9:29 am

    ” -No doubt about it, evil exists. I don’t have to know anymore than that.-

    -If you always try to do the right thing, you can live with a clear conscience.- ”

    How about if you do not have a conscience like a psychopath?

    How about the executives as they are described in this article.

    http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/96/open_boss.html

    Not violent psychopaths but psychopaths none the less.

  199. muleskinner January 29, 2007 9:42 am

    Ken Lay didn’t last too long after he pulled the sheep over the hapless investors’ eyes, now did he?

  200. zephyr January 29, 2007 10:49 am

    I don’t know, at some point you can’t believe every conspiracy theory you hear or read. No, I haven’t read Behold a Pale Horse, but I read 40 Amazon reviews on it, and some excerpts. I read Bill Cooper even admitted in his later years that some of the stuff was questionable to say the least. I mean, some of the stuff is downright nutty. He just goes WAYYYYYY to far. And please, he just conveniently found some of this stuff in an old copier? Ummmm, yeah…

    Listen, I’m far from a prude but you have to admit sometimes conspiracy goes too far, and that’s what makes the justifiable claims not taken seriously. It’s sort of along the lines of Al Gore’s exaggerating….the truth is in there for the most part, but then he goes just a little too far and everybody goes, “See, he must be nuts, he must be wrong.” Now, I’m not saying where the line should be, but there has to be a line rational people shouldn’t cross in trying to prove crucial points.

    Did he know something important? I’m sure he did. But I think he was probably more often wrong than he was right, like Mel Gibson’s charactor in Conspiracy Theory.

  201. Makia January 29, 2007 11:11 am

    Zephyr, as far as the movie Conspiracy Theory, i doubt its a stretch to say that character was _based_ on Bill Cooper. And as far as how seriously to take “conspiracy theory” stuff, well, look at Bill’s death. Its entirely plausible that he wasn’t “taken out.” And why would “they” want to take him out if he was painted as a nut-job to begin with? But then why is he dead? He “accidentally” got shot in the head by law enforcement under documentedly strange circumstances. Its entirely plausible that he was “taken out.”

    I’ve come to the hard and fast conclusion that no, this stuff isn’t worth living your life over; its best value is a reminder to let some things remain in the realm of doubt - in the realm of question. To realize how much we take for granted as truth when we are just setting priorities or making “useful” assumptions.

    It’s not worth living your life over - unless you can’t help it. And as such Bill Cooper is a tragic figure in Patriotic mythology. I highly recommend for people to look into it farther. Not to get new ideas or perspectives - though that will undoubtedly happen - but to see just how circular the rabbit hole is. To see that often no matter how far you travel, you have really never left.

  202. Kia January 29, 2007 11:23 am

    Makia, Zephyr.

    I know nothing and know less every day…the trick has been to accustom myself to observing the world without knowing. This process has left me with gut intuition that together with a sense of humor that is the only wisdom I’ve been able to lash together.

    What’s your approach?

  203. Makia January 29, 2007 11:31 am

    Kia, thats the ticket for me. Feels like i’m grasping to sanity most of the time. But then i meet people like this and i feel much less agitated. This stuff can get very heavy and its a mistake to let it get you down. That’s the biggest reason i think its good for me to have kids - keeps me gounded good.

  204. Makia January 29, 2007 11:35 am

    The funniest thing in my life is the the most ironic to try and describe.

    I love language. I love English. I love stories. But if you limit your perception to the things you can describe will will miss out on a lot of things that can’t be put into words.

    The good thing about that choice that its never important to describe the undescribable. Humor? Funny? Yeah, that one way to describe it. But only one. Only one, at a time, compared to other ones. That’s the limit of words. It takes a lot of time to change in describable ways, but you can change in indescribable ways very, very fast.

  205. bp January 29, 2007 11:37 am

    #182, sapiens - nice to have you posting again (though I was disappointed that you didn’t finish your posting to your site, but then maybe you did, maybe I just didn’t wait long enough - if so send your site link again - I’ll read it) - that was an interesting book you linked to - I read the PDF front - I’ll have to look it up, though I do believe things are probably even more complicated than the book states. Have you read “The seth material” by Jane Roberts, “The Betty Book” and “The unobstructed Universe” by Stewart White, “The Convoluted Universe” by Dolores Cannon, the writings of Gurjeiff, and “The Annegram” by Helen Palmer - I would have to guess we exit multidimentionally and on a sliding scale of mental illness (compounded by stress and other factors)

    But I did have a question (didn’t think you’d get off that easy did you?) — what is your connection to this Laura Knight-Jadczyk who was the editor of this book and probably connected with its release as an ebook? I have to have questions about her.

    for those unfamiliar with her here is a site critical of her - http://educate-yourself.org/cn/lauraknightjadczykexpose2004.shtml

    and her site - http://www.cassiopaea.org/cass/site_map_qfg.htm

    i read some of her stuff on the Wave (a heading down in there somewhere)…interesting

  206. Kia January 29, 2007 11:49 am

    Makia,

    Having kids is a courageous act, and one that I have not chosen, as I have had very little confidence in the direction of this country since the onset of the Reagan Era. I felt that I would’ve been the parent from hell telling children not to watch TV, play video games, eat junk food, believe the govt etc.

    My approach is fairly simple. Establish standards for myself, work to live up to them. If someone notices great, if no one notices great. My actions have to good enough for myself. The other challenge has been to become detached from results. I make my best efforts in life and accept where the chips fall.

    As for the outside world, it is just too much stupidity to sweat out the inevitable. Marty Glass’s “Yuga, An Anatomy of our Fate” has helped me understand that our current circumstance has been predicted by a wide variety of wisdom texts over a long period of time. As such I work on acceptance on a daily basis.

    Its the End of the Empire and I feel Fine ;-)

    Peace

  207. peter January 29, 2007 12:06 pm

    Mr. Nystrom makes an interesting point but he believes the FED is an all powerful God. No doubt, the insiders and elite (through their memiors like Kennedy and company) knew the crash was coming and bailed out. The FED wanted complete control of the banking systems, which was mostly comprised of NON-Fed banks. They called in loans and took their sweet old time to inject liquidity until it was too late.

    Today’s system is VERY different. The FED controls everything. If the financial system is pulverized the FED might get some of the blame but comatoased Americans would be clueless anyways. The goal of the elite (who the Fed primarily works for)is to implement a WORLD_WIDE cashless society where evrybody will be marked from birth. Something Mr. Quigly eloquently pointed out in his book (Tragedy and Hope).

    They are trying to prop the system until this world technology system is complete. Can they succeeed, I dioubt it. There is NOT going to be a deflation in this country. Maybe deflation in wants (homes, luxury items, Cars, etc) but not food, oil, gas, gold, clothing, etc (Wants).
    The dollar is toast. The debt are staggering beyond belief. The US economic systems is holding on by tenous string. Once this corrupt, lazy, debased, patchup systems dam break its all she wrote.

    The Elite has pissed off the Russian and Chinese. They are forming the largest military alliance at history, all aimed at us. By 2010, China will deploy a blue water navy three times the size of the US. It will have several new generational, mobile ICBM missiles aimed at the US. It is building at a frenzy pace massive underground bunkers, anit-satellite technology, intercontinental bombers (to strike USA), ships, etc on a scale not seen since NAZI Germany’s buildup. Meatime, Russia is rebuilding its military with new bombers, ships, Topol Icbms, etc. World War will strike America. America is the Modern Babylon mentioned in the New testament and it will be destroyed in a hour. After the destruction of the America and Zionist elite, what remains of the European elite (they will be out of the war) will combine the renaments of the Jewish elite to forge this NWO.

  208. peter January 29, 2007 12:13 pm

    Foreigners will dump the dollar..no deflation

  209. zephyr January 29, 2007 12:16 pm

    Kia, your approach is as good as any I can suggest. Do I follow it? Sometimes, I think. Actually I think my approach changes with the winds. Life is so complex and I’m affected by so much. I’m like a vial of mercury. I’m sure my posts reveal a variety of moods…..basically I guess I’m saying I’m Coo-Coo, Quack-Quack!!

    I don’t know if this will sound strange (what’s strange on this website you might add), but I think I’m what you call an empath. My massage therapist thinks I am and once I started doing some research on it, the defintion/description fits me fairly accurately. Basically an empath picks up strongly on the emotions/vibes of others to the point of actually feeling ohers emotions, sometimes physically. Many times I have felt emotions that haven’t really made sense to my environment or to the suddenness to which they’ve come on. I think that’s why I like to get in the woods by myself so often so I can just experience me and nature and God. Sometimes, if it’s someone I’m very close to, I’ve had my emotions change even if the person is at some distance. My wife woke to a nightmare one night while I was at work somewhere and in a hotel. I woke up out of nowhere having a panic attack…..for no apparent reason. After talking the next day, we realized it happened at the exact time, 2:30 in the morning. Fact is stranger than fiction.

    What’s my point? I’m not really sure. Makia, I’m sure having kids is great and does help keep one grounded. I just try to do the best I can every moment of every day. And truthfully, when I end my day, I believe I’ve failed myself more often than not. While I may appear to be critical on this forum, believe me, the person I’m harshest on is myself. Too a fault I’ve been told by those closest to me.

    Makia, I’m not saying you’re wrong because who am I to say with definative authority? I’m right there with you in the clinging to sanity category. I think that’s why I love to travel so much. To explore, to connect, to learn, to disprove cliched prejudices, for the adrenalin rush upon seeing something for the first time. And you’re right, to share with others such as yourselves has been a Godsend.

    Anyway, it’s time for my hike. Makia, give me a call when life presents the opportunity. Kia, peace. And to everyone else, Fuck Off. Just wanted to say that ;-) No, No….to everyone else, peace as well. Hey, where has Larry been? I hope I didn’t scare him off with our last discussion….you know I love ya Larry!

  210. Makia January 29, 2007 12:18 pm

    Peter, what makes you think that the elite have pissed off China and Russia?

    That’s what “they” want you to think.

    - speaking of humor, kia - eh, eh?

    Kia #206, grow some balls and make some kids. We breeders want _good_ stuff in the genetic pool! Gawdammit

  211. Makia January 29, 2007 12:20 pm

    You too zephyr! Gawdammit!

  212. Kia January 29, 2007 12:20 pm

    Makia,

    the idea of facing up to someone like myself was enough to put me off the project, rather i will stand in admiration of your latest project.

    congrats dad

  213. Makia January 29, 2007 12:28 pm

    BWHAAAAHAAHAAAAHAAAHAAAHAAABHHHHAAAAAA!!!

    Y’know kia, the greatest challenges hold the greatest rewards. Also, many times things are more difficult in our heads than they really are in reality. That applies to many, many things eh?

  214. Kia January 29, 2007 12:28 pm
  215. Kia January 29, 2007 12:30 pm

    Makia,

    the longest trip begins with the synapse between two neurons

    what a long strange trip it has been!

    Peace

  216. Makia January 29, 2007 12:35 pm

    We put my friend.

  217. Makia January 29, 2007 12:35 pm

    “Well put”, that’s “Well put my friend.”

  218. zephyr January 29, 2007 12:36 pm

    Being brief as the sun is starting to go down ( no, not because of becoming a werewolf, but because of my hike), basically both my wife and I are infertile. We have tried and there were further techniques we could have tried but there were no assurances and she was stressing so much. After we stopped all the procedures, my wife was at peace. We are very fortunate. We have what many couples don’t have, as we have noticed and also been told by many people. We love each other deeply, we communicate extraordinarily well and we truly are best friends.

    What sucks is our mutual animal allergies. I can’t handle cats and she can’t handle dogs, cats or birds. She is so allergic that she is allergic to their saliva. And as we all know, these animals like to lick. So, we had a really cool turtle for awhile, but he died and hasn’t been replaced yet. So for now we have Fishie, a beta fish with tons of personality….for a fish. And we treat him like a king. He has a damn good tank for one fish! Too bad, you can’t walk, cuddle or pet a fish, but life goes on. We do talk to him. Yes, I know, we’re nuts, but he actually is responsive. Betas are actually pretty smart for fish…..check it out.

    Anyway, life will have to continue without me in the gene pool, which I’m sure would please some people. So, jot down my pearls of wisdom, you’ll never see the like of them again.

  219. Kia January 29, 2007 12:53 pm

    Zephyr,

    Happy hiking, my husky Tikaboo (named for the mountains overlooking Area 51 which do or do not exist depending upon whether you believe the Feds or not) is about to start blowing her coat, as the snow melts, so I could sent you some if you want.

    What I want to know is how you fit 100 lbs of hair on a 50 lb dog.

  220. zephyr January 29, 2007 12:57 pm

    That reminds me of something my father used to call a bolivia….10 pounds of shit in a 5 pound bag. Yeah, dear old dad had a way with words. He said things I’ve never heard anyone else say before or after his death. He was unique, but he made us laugh. I think that is one of the best gifts you can give another, the gift of laughter. And on that note, out the door I go, see you later

  221. muleskinner January 29, 2007 1:03 pm

    You hang in there, Makia. Life is great, you know, hey.

    You know, I once used to wonder what this life was all about, why I have the life form that I have.

    What’s the lesson to be learned? All of that waxing philosophical jazz.

    My wife and I had twin girls a few years ago. It is too long to remember when, just kidding. The work involved with keeping them alive is dreaded drudgery. I look at the joyous rewards, then I know why.

    What really scares you? The prospect that a child might die before you? Scary? Indeed. One of the girls became dehydrated, too weak to nurse, even. We needed help, in a quick hurry. We called a doctor that made house calls. The urgency demanded all attention. One of the girls was losing strength fast, and something had to be done. It scares the bejesus out of you.

    The doctor knew what to do. He instructed us to extract mother’s milk in measured amounts. He then had us use an eye dropper to drop my wife’s mother’s milk one drop at a time through one nostril so the milk could travel directly down to the esophagus. Now I know what they mean when they say ‘intensive care.’

    You pay attention. You do what is instructed to do. It is a matter of life and death.

    I know it is done every day around the world, but when it happens to you, it’s a different story.

    You learn what really matters in life. You learn to love life, first and foremost. You learn. If there was never any life anywhere in the universe, any living thing would never have the opportunity to die.

    Life is worth it, that’s why I wonder why there is all of the killing and the stabbing and the hating and the cheating. That’s not worth it in this life.

    Love thy neighbor as thine own self. That’s not an easy task. All of these super weapons don’t mean much to me.

    What do you profit if you gain the whole world by inflation and wars everywhere, but lose your soul?

    That’s my story today.

    Re-read these words: “The didactic assaults the fortress of my mind, but the story goes through the back of my heart.”

    Some of the more profound words I have ever read. I don’t forget them.

    I will recommend one more book for now. F. Tupper Saussy’s ‘The Miracle on Main Street”

    Smile

  222. Makia January 29, 2007 1:11 pm

    You lucky fuck.

  223. Makia January 29, 2007 1:14 pm

    (that was directed at zephyr @ #217)

    muleskinner, Godblessyou man.

  224. Gordo January 29, 2007 1:32 pm

    Thanks for opening my eyes to Ron Paul. I really hope this guy can win the primary, and if he does, I believe he will win the presidency. The only way he can win the primary is with a serious grass roots effort to get the word out. This has already started because that’s how I found out about him. In order to avoid serious financial turmoil in the future (possibly 20-30 years into the future or maybe much sooner) we need a fiscally conservative president, something we have not had in over 100 years… I love the speeches I have read so far from Ron Paul, he really gets it, and I think he can appeal to democrats, republicans, independents, and libertarians alike. A true voice of reason. I will support his campaign.

  225. skeptical January 29, 2007 2:15 pm

    peter Says: “Foreigners will dump the dollar..no deflation”

    OK peter I have heard this over and over. It seems that gold bulls love to say this but no one has yet to explain how such would work in the present financial system in such a way that makes sence.

    First, the US has been running a deficit for many many years yet the dollar was up until as late as 2001 so there doesn’t seem to be any real connect between a defecit and a lower fx value.

    Second, the post
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&sid=avaFUiaR9Dpo&refer=home
    admits that Malaysia has gotten out of the dollar already but the dollar has been going up on the FX so how do you explain that?

    Third, who has that much “yuan” or “yen” or “pounds” or what ever currency that would be needed when the dollar seller wants to sell? I mean it is a musical chairs game where ALL players KNOW the rules. The rules are that there is no way out of the game.

    Lets take China for example. In the old days when under a gold standard when the debtor country got too far in the hole, the creditor country would demand gold in payment of the deficit. Now there is no more gold to demand so what would the creditor country demand? Yuan for his dollars? But the US has no Yuan that it can exchange for dollars, but who does have that much yuan who would RATHER have dollars? No one. So what is the creditor nation going to do? Either exchange his dollars for property (unlikely give the unicol fiasco and the UE port fiasco), or demand ??? What???

  226. Makia January 29, 2007 2:30 pm

    Well what do you think skeptical?

  227. skeptical January 29, 2007 2:37 pm

    Makia I think I stated my opinion but here it is again

    “It is a musical chairs game where ALL players KNOW the rules. The rules are that there is no way out of the game.”

    I think long term the dollar is toast, short term I expect the dollar to rally. I expect rates to rise lending support to the dollar.

    But then what do I know????? If you ask BondBubble a big fat noda, zip, zilch, nothing

  228. Makia January 29, 2007 2:39 pm

    goddam i hate repitition.

    goddam i hate repitition.

    goddam i hate repitition.

    goddam i hate repitition.

    goddam i hate repitition.

    goddam i hate repitition.

  229. Makia January 29, 2007 2:40 pm

    sorry for not paying attention skeptical

  230. kia January 29, 2007 2:43 pm

    Skep (#223),

    Funny that you should pick the same article as I passed to Peter in #213. The answer must lie in the volume of the various currency holders, i.e. the divestiture of Malaysia $82B of currency holding doesn’t register a ripple when compared to China’s $1T.

    You have your finger on the pulse of what I call the Banker’s Polka. The FED is trying to call the tune so all the central bankers can “maintain” their various fiat currencies.
    I can only speculate that the same Hedge Funds owned by FED bank members buying US Treasury notes are the ones who are supporting the dollar. These “Carribean banks” are the sponge where we are effectively monetarizing the debt without the public noticing.

    Where is my banker when I need inside such information? Piero Suarez, ayuda me! What can you tell us about this?

  231. kia January 29, 2007 2:51 pm

    skep,

    http://www.uruknet.de/?p=m30120&hd=&size=1&l=e

    Financeers have been on both sides of every war, depression, boom and bust. They make polticians look like little orphan annnie.

    I think you are right

    “It is a musical chairs game where ALL players KNOW the rules. The rules are that there is no way out of the game.”

  232. Makia January 29, 2007 3:06 pm

    goddam i hate repitition.

    goddam i hate repitition.

    goddam i hate repitition.

    goddam i hate repitition.

    goddam i hate repitition.

  233. Makia January 29, 2007 3:07 pm

    you can’t tell me that’s not funny!

    (. . .it’s a musical chairs refference)

    (. . . anyone?)

  234. Makia January 29, 2007 3:08 pm

    just for kicks:

    “It is a musical chairs game where ALL players KNOW the rules. The rules are that there is no way out of the game.”

  235. Makia January 29, 2007 3:08 pm

    i suppose repitition is cool sometimes

  236. zephyr January 29, 2007 3:43 pm

    Ummm, the repitition thing….ummmm, yeah…not so funny. Sorry. And actually, just curious, wanted a little clarification…in my post you referenced, which part am I a “lucky fuck”?

    And Muleskinner, the fortress of my mind, back of my heart quote, where does that come from?

  237. kia January 29, 2007 3:48 pm

    Zephyr,

    Try reading this:

    http://www.princeton.edu/~pear/

    FWIIW here is my take:
    Humans are 80% water, salts and electrolytes and all generate roughly 40W. This output generates an electromagnetic field around each
    individual. Functionally this means that everyone is a “cell phone” capable of sending or receiving electromagnetic signals. Of course we are surrounded by a myriad of these waves

    Quantum theory has proven the principle of entanglement. Where the status of one particle is “entangled” with another particle. So if you
    change the state of one particle, the one it is entangled with will immediately change state. This effect works immediately, and is independent of distance. So if something is happening at a distance which takes time to “occur” via lightwaves or soundwaves, may “show up” in the quantum field first (thus the appearance of time moving backward)

    The mystery of the universe is how the forces of gravity, atomic bonding, electromagnetics and quantum theory work. This is the Holy
    Grail of modern physics the “Unified Field Theory” which up till now has eluded physicists.

    So a REG is used to generate random number sequences in binary code (1100011110101000) etc. What the boys at Princeton have shown is that an ordinary individual can through powers of concentration affect the outcome of the REG, thus demonstrating a “coupling”. Furthermore this “coupling” seems anticipate a future event.

    Now step back and imagine that at a subtle level 7 billion people generate an electromagnetic web, through which we are able to interact with each other, but to this point has been beyond our ability to sense
    or use. As the boys at Princeton said the coherence is unexplainable.

    Are you with me so far?

    Let’s talk metaphysics. As a Buddhist I have experienced this Universal Mind, and have often wondered if the population hit some
    critical mass that the Universal Mind would begin to strengthen. My guess is that this is the coherence that they are sensing.

    The Mantavantara is a 26,000 year old “spiral” of time that ends Dec 21, 2012 punctuated by a huge astronomical alignment. The Mayan Calender
    which is over 5000 years old also ends on this date.

    So the potential for the human electromagnetic web to interact with space storms, sun spots, and gravitational alignment will yield
    unpredictable events that the REGs may be picking up.

    I think this “ether” is love, and it governs the universe.

    Peace

  238. bp January 29, 2007 4:18 pm

    kia #174 - 10 gallon, sheesh got me beat - I’m only doing 5 gal at a time, and have been brewing for a year - as for recipes you’ve been brewing longer than me - I’m still pulling my recipes out of Beer Captured, and Clone Brews (but I have 4 laid out nice and neat in Excel, hehe)

  239. bp January 29, 2007 4:39 pm

    #206 kia, er….I had kids and they turned out ok, they don’t eat junk food and don’t believe the government - 2 out of 4, hey they’re batting .500

  240. Jim January 29, 2007 4:42 pm

    It looks like we are headed for a serious bout of deflation here, particularly in the real estate and stock markets.

    U.S. workers have certainly taken it on the chin for the last 25 years with the inception of trickle-down economics, “free trade” policies and relocation of manufacturing to foreign lands.

    I don’t think the privately held Federal Reserve Bank will allow the U.S. dollar to become totally worthless. Forget about a rate decrease anytime soon.

  241. muleskinner January 29, 2007 5:09 pm

    Zephyr, the quote was spoken by a minister at a church one evening during a meeting of some members.

    It was an inspiring moment in time. Razor’s edge type stuff.

    Yeah, I go to church, what are gonna do about it? I can go to church if I want to go, nobody can stop me.

    I hope God will forgive me for being in such god forsaken places these days. Or, have people forsaken God?

    They’re everywhere else, work, the bars, vacations in Singapore. Church isn’t their bag. Spiritual baggage gets to be too much sometimes and something has got to give.

    I’m not perfect. I make a huge number of mistakes. If there is a God, maybe there is and maybe there isn’t. I’ll believe that there is. If there isn’t, I won’t be disappointed.

    I have zero faith in the US government and it is there. If it were to be gone tomorrow, It wouldn’t surprise me, nor disappoint me. You are forced to bow down and serve her. Follow the governments ‘didactic’ that assaults the fortress of your mind. Their business is for you to be a tax slave. You’ll learn the lesson they teach, come hell or highwater.

    Robert Anton Wilson did. I’m telling ya, the guy was funny.

    He would sign his letters to Preznit Bush ‘your obedient serf and servant.’ If you want to laugh, check out his web site.

    His story will go through the back of your heart.

  242. bp January 29, 2007 5:20 pm

    #237, kia - Re: As a Buddhist I have experienced this Universal Mind, and have often wondered if the population hit some
    critical mass that the Universal Mind would begin to strengthen. My guess is that this is the coherence that they are sensing.

    hm, I assume you mean a critical mass of raised awareness - heheh, gotta be paranoid here and say that that must be why the PTB are dumbing everyone down - the Universal Mind is going mad, got to keep the luneies on the walk, hehe

  243. Anonymous Europe January 29, 2007 5:33 pm

    Skeptical…..I generally agree with your position that the USD will rally some more….but I would like to contend this statement of yours…peter Says: “Foreigners will dump the dollar..no deflation” OK peter I have heard this over and over. It seems that gold bulls love to say this but no one has yet to explain how such would work in the present financial system in such a way that makes sence…..

    It appears to me that these pro-gold romantics are suggesting that there will be some kind of USD catharsis catapulting their gold holdings to the stratosphere….I don’t know how soon or how high gold may eventually climb but in the nearer-term, I expect some “dumping” that will drive interest rates significantly higher and provide the foundation for the USD rally.

    There don’t appear to be many people worried about a return of the risk premium to the bond market. Everyone knows that FCB’s have been buying. I think this will change. And why?

    #1 - Japan…sitting on close to 900 billion…Remember when they were supporting the yen a few years back buying dollars, well they have a screaming fx gain on those USD’s they bought. When the $/Y starts pushing over 125 towards 130 and the ding dongs in congress start whining about the unfair advantages that are aggrandizing to the Japanese, I expect to see fx intervention to stem the yen slide. So the Japanese will have, at the margin, less usd to buy treasuries …boom …higher US interest rates

    #2 - OIL exporters….Everyone knows that with a lower crude price that these guys, OPEC, Russia, Norway and everyone else will have less cash to buy treasuries…Not news…but when you think about it, the oil price is just a vehicle to transfer cash from consumers to the bond market. With a lower price of crude, less cash for buying bonds…boom ….higher US interest rates

    #3 - China….So these guys are sitting on a trillion and everyone thinks they’re stuck with them…..They are slowly, and quite successfully, appreciating the yuan against the USD and I don’t think it is unreasonable that, over some reasonable period of time, that they will accomplish a reduction in the USD component of their reserves by a 150 to 250 billion, and that will also pressure UST rates….And even if it is a very, very slow transition, at the margin, it will hurt rates…. boom… boom….kaboooom

    Now I’m not an economist but recent reports revealed rising industrial production, improving wages, good employment levels, rising exports, decreasing fuel costs and maybe even some increased housing affordability and all these items may conflate and then boommm…. rates will rise, USD will rise and maybe even gold rises for a time, just like the goldbugs long for…. and all because the foreigners dumped some of that American scrip just like Peter said…I think this process has started already

  244. ostrich January 29, 2007 5:36 pm

    #206 - I felt that I would’ve been the parent from hell telling children not to watch TV, play video games, eat junk food, believe the govt etc.
    That is how I raised my children, to think, to question I’ve always told them the only dumb question is the one you don’t ask. Some members of my family are educators(don’t hold it against me) and they think I am too strict when it comes to education and learning. When my oldest daughter started secondary school she came home and thanked me but she didn’t know who was more dumb the students or teachers.
    Kia you have so much to offer the gene pool it is unbelievable.
    skeptical if you have a big enough gun you demand anything you like - and as one poster noted by 2010 maybe that gun will be big enough (just a thought)

  245. Anonymous Europe January 29, 2007 5:38 pm

    Forget about a rate decrease anytime soon…..

    Oh yes, I forgot to mention…the Fed will raise rates, as that friggin’ core inflation they use, starts accelerating, as this scenario unfolds, not lower them as many seem to think

  246. kia January 29, 2007 6:13 pm

    Euro Anon,

    Spot on, the FED will need to raise to chase borrowers. The maw of the machine demands to be fed $3B every day (one thousand dollars per day for each US citizen). How to do it? Raise the interest rates.

    So Oil pumps money into the bond market which supports the liquidity through expansion in the credit markets. It is like a slow motion big bang expanded effortlessly and infinitely. A Central Banker’s Pipe(line) Dream.

    Is this what they refer to as “greasing the machine”. The Lie gets bigger as the debt gets bigger. It’s a virtuous circle.

    Meanwhile the Chinese who after 5000 years are playing for the long term. I suspect they look at their $1T dollars as a “finance charge” on their development as the pre-eminent economy in the world. Recent data suggests that China will surpass that of number three Germany by October 07.

    That just leaves the Japanese and US.

    Thank you Anonymous Europe, you’ve made my day.

    Peace

  247. muleskinner January 29, 2007 6:32 pm

    I don’t understand when the news says that the yen is weakening against the dollar when it falls from 125 to 122. It is strengthening against the dollar when it falls. In 1995, it was at 84 to 85 yen per dollar. How is it that the yen is weakening when it takes fewer of them to buy a dollar? It’s not, that’s fact, not fiction. In 1971, it took 358 yen to buy a dollar. In 1976, you needed 300 yen to buy a dollar. That is how much the dollar has lost ground. Historical value of the yen

    If the supply of euros is increasing by some ten percent, that will be good for the dollar. More euros chasing fewer dollars helps the dollar.

    Looks like that is what is happening.

  248. Trendsman January 29, 2007 7:06 pm

    Deflation is simply a natural reaction to inflation ie money/credit creation. Deflation can be prevented by not inflating in the first place or by increasing the pace of inflation, known as hyperinflation. We are in the early stages of that.

  249. kia January 29, 2007 8:44 pm

    Look what the govt’s got planned:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4655196.stm

    before you read it I recommend going to

    http://www.myspace.com/jamesmcmurtry

    and turn up the speakers to the sound of God Bless America.

    It’ll make more sense that way.

    Take us to the land of milk and honey.

  250. Sapiens January 29, 2007 8:50 pm

    Hello Jane, bp.

    Jane, what do you make of this site?:

    A Brief Sketch of System or Intelligent Design of Nature

    http://www.geocities.com/quantum_reality2003/brief_sketch.htm

    bp, I have nothing to do with Laura Knight-Jadczyk, I am kind of adverse to UFO’s and little green men.

    It would be a shame if her reputation would tarnish Lobaczewski fine work.

    -Sapiens

  251. zephyr January 30, 2007 3:50 am

    237 fascinating stuff Kia…must admit the link kind of lost me…I’m not a stupid person but it was dry reading and hard for me to grasp in their terms. I much prefer your terms….sure explains alot. And makes tons of sense to the enlightened mind. Shame there aren’t many of those.

    So Michael, I have a proposal for a topic. Since this 12-21-12 date keeps coming up, I’m curious what others think it holds for the future.

    Again, maybe that’s why I’m so eager to travel. I almost feel a sense of urgency. Kia, I do sense something on the horizon. I can’t put my finger on it but I can say it will make all that we’re doing now irrelevant. Maybe, some elites know this, that’s why they run up such massive bills. They know they won’t have to be paid….at least not by them. It’s just funny…..all these 401k’s, pensions, etc….I think most of us will never even see that money. I think it is all one big scam piggy bank for the “elders” because, in reality, they hold the pursestrings and don’t have to cut them if they don’t want. Another national emergency, anyone? A new age type of confiscation, perhaps? I mean, why such serious penalties for early withdrawal? It’s your money….you should be able to do whatever you Goddam please with it. No, I get the feeling it’s more their nest egg than the peoples.

  252. zephyr January 30, 2007 4:49 am

    Kia, finally read 195. All I can say is Holy Shit!!! It’s the Matrix revisited again (as Yogi Berra might say). I would love to see the updated version. That document, whatever its origins, is some heavy shit. And deadly accurate.

    Particularly poignent is the mentioned prospect of the elite’s need of transfer of energy before the public becomes to aware of the “game”. Is this what we’re now witnessing? No wonder so many people self-medicate to escape this pretend life we’ve been subjected to. And no wonder Big Daddy govt/pharmo is only too happy to oblige. I guess I’ll write more once I’ve picked my jaw up off the floor.

  253. Makia January 30, 2007 5:35 am

    Zephyr, the lucky fuck thing was about being able to have sex w/o birth control or pregnancy. It was a probably horrible attempt at a humor regarding a cloud with a silver lining.

    To All: I was reading over the last couple days of dialouge here. Some pretty astonishing stuff, especially when disregarding my comments.

    The aliens thing is pretty astonishing, if one looks into it. Nothing could get me to say otherwise. I’ve never seen anything “out of the ordinary,” but i know a couple people here have. Secondly, there is a ton of stuff “leaked” from the military. If it is a smokescreen, it is extremely elaborate; and if it is a smokescreen, then whathefuck are the covering?

    One theory is that the “BIG” thing being (not really covered) is there to provoke the masses into acceptance of the need of global governance. I.e., if _aliens_ are the enemy, then we better have a world leadership. Just one more spoke in the wheel in my opinion.

    But who will speak to the aliens for me?

    G’Bye

  254. Makia January 30, 2007 5:52 am

    p.s. posts 225-234 are funny, if you let it sink in. . .

  255. muleskinner January 30, 2007 6:05 am

    The silent weapons top secret document is laughable and absurd. I heard a college professor talk about preserving the brain of one of her ‘esteemed colleagues’ because his knowledge of genetics was so vast. I broke out laughing in the classroom, such absurdness deserves to be mocked.

    I’ll mock that secret weapons document.

    Although, it is probably genuine. Humans never cease to amaze me with their desire to control everything, no matter what it may be.

    See the whitelist.

    The earth will see to it that humans neither can control their destiny, nor control any part of the human race. It can’t be done. No matter how constant the competent effort may be, it won’t work.

    In the end, life will grind the ‘controllers’ into the ground. Much like a momma cow will grind a coyote into the dirt until there is nothing left of it.

    That’s the reality.

  256. zephyr January 30, 2007 7:07 am

    I’m not sure I follow Muleskinner. How can you say the document is “laughable and absurd” and “probably genuine”?
    They seem mutually exclusive. And while I agree that humans desire to control is absurd, I don’t know if I can agree they ultimately fail. I might have thought that before but after reading through that tedious document, it seems that alot of that agenda has been pulled off. If you have limitless resources and can buy the right people and use the right techniques…People ARE easily fooled, no question there.

    I don’t know. Ultimately, one would think this game can’t continue forever. One good thing about the TV show Survivor (the only “reality” show I watch) is that it really is a microcosm of society. It’s like looking under a microscope. And one theme that continually plays out on that show is those that feel empowered and in control ultimately get overconfident and sloppy. Anywhere in life, when one is cheating on their taxes, skimming money, cheating on their spouse, gambling, doing drugs, drinking excessively….the human desire is too forever push the envelope….”how far can I go?” And almost always, there is that line where you’ve gone too far, but you don’t know that line til you’ve crossed it.

    No, I believe this shit is going on, and they’ve been mighty successful. Too many quotes from politicians and other leaders over the past 80-100 years, even longer, where they all say that basically you don’t know 10% of what goes on behind the scenes. There is an agenda and it’s been carried out fairly well. But at some point that line gets crossed, it always does…the chaos theory kicks in. But I think at that point either all hell breaks lose or something we don’t see yet comes to save the day. You know, something along the lines that almost all doomsday prophets and religions point to. Whether it be the Mayans, this 26,000 year cycle that Kia speaks of, Revelations, on and on and on. Or simple science:

    http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/GlobalWarming/story?id=2834552&page=1

    No, something’s up. I can’t put my finger on it. But I feel it. It’s floating all around us. Something’s not right. But it’s nothing that another xanax won’t fix. Yeah, why is the public so heavily medicated? Really?

  257. Dr Jane Karlsson January 30, 2007 7:27 am

    Kia 237, ‘the mystery of the universe is how the forces of gravity, atomic bonding, electromagnetics and quantum therory work.’ Yes, it is, and guess what, I KNOW IT. I HAVE WORKED IT OUT. I HAVE BEEN TRYING TO TELL PEOPLE FOR TWENTY YEARS, AND NO-ONE WILL LISTEN. This is why I tried to tell you about the structure of the atom. Who is interested? Ostrich, for a day or two. Thanks, ostrich, I don’t mean to denigrate your efforts. But you cannot begin to imagine how intolerably frustrated I am to have worked out ‘the mystery of the universe’ and be faced with the prospect of taking it to my grave.

  258. zephyr January 30, 2007 7:39 am

    Talk, Dr. Jane, you know I’m listening, I’m curious as hell. Plus, it would seem on a much lighter note, I had asked about what is good about palm oil and if avocado oil is good for you.

  259. zephyr January 30, 2007 7:51 am

    Dr. Jane On the prior post A Dark New Age, post 137 I asked about the relevance of what you spoke and you gave me a very brief answer 162. I just looked it up. So you can’t say no one was interested. I asked you but you only gave a very brief overview. How does what you say apply to what Kia and I were talking about? His reply in 237 was about something I mentioned in 209.

  260. muleskinner January 30, 2007 7:52 am

    ‘No matter what you do, no matter how hard you try, nobody ever appreciates it’

    Jane, keep talking, eventually you will pound it into my thick skull. It’s all bone, no brain matter there whatsoever.

    You’re doing a good job.

    Avocado oil is a superior oil. It’s ok to use.

    Poppyseed oil is very desirable too. The Germans in East Germany had to press it under cover of darkness when the communists ruled the roost there. Poppy production was illegal under communist rule. Communism is the most intolerant religion on the planet.

  261. zephyr January 30, 2007 8:08 am

    Makia, 253 I was just curious because I had said so many things in that post. For all I knew you were saying I was lucky to have an intelligent beta fish.

    That whole thing with aliens is tricky. I actually saw something maybe 15 years ago around twilight. While driving I saw 5 lights in the shape of a star just hovering. They looked like an airplane sorta but were hovering. Now I live very near Sikorsky where they make military helicopters, so I thought maybe that’s what it was. All of a sudden, these lights took off like nothing I’ve ever seen. I mean hyper-speed. So who knows.

    Someone I work with has a friend in the military who intimated one evening that UFO’s do exist. Apparently, someone in the know. But who knows, he could have been yanking the guy’s chain. As I’ve said before, it would be hard to believe that in this vast thing called space that we’re entirely alone, or at the least, the most intelligent species. I love when people say space travel like that would be impossible. Says who?! Because you can’t imagine or comprehend it, it just can’t be so? Typical human ignorance with a dash of arrogance.

    And very funny- “some astonishing stuff, especially when disregarding my comments” Self-depracation is a very good thing. First, you have to be able to laugh at yourself. Second, it takes away a foe’s ammunition if you beat him to the punch by mocking yourself before he can. If he follows up after you do it first, it just makes him look stupid. Oh, these pearls of wisdom….maybe I should charge for them like sapiens :-)

  262. muleskinner January 30, 2007 8:39 am

    3M sold their pharmaceutical business. Brilliant decision.

  263. Dr Jane Karlsson January 30, 2007 8:42 am

    zephyr, thanks. I needed to blow off steam, and now I’ve done it, I feel a lot better. You are all a great help to me, I wouldn’t stay if you weren’t. And I still have hope that someone is listening who can put what I’ve said to some use. Actually, it’s kinda fun knowing things that no-one else knows.

    Thanks to muleskinner too, and everyone else. Kia, you are a great help to me too, please don’t think I meant otherwise.

  264. kia January 30, 2007 8:50 am

    Jane (#256),

    I’m with Zeph, speak on! I listened to your discussion of zonal structure of electron orbitals, and would be very interested to hear what you have to say about Unified Field Therapy.

    Makia,

    Spend some time watching Kinda Sleeza Rice on TV. I think it answers the alien question.
    Looking at those Hubble pictures, and knowing that the universe is made up of 97% of matter we know nothing about, how could one rule out the existence of aliens and UFOs?

    I tend not to discount things I can’t rule out. How could I?

    Peace

  265. kia January 30, 2007 8:53 am

    Jane,

    Glad to be of assistance. Speak your truth.

    Love and Light to You

  266. Makia January 30, 2007 8:58 am

    “Spend some time watching Kinda Sleeza Rice on TV. I think it answers the alien question.”

    now that’s a gem

  267. Dr Jane Karlsson January 30, 2007 9:00 am

    zephyr, just looked up the New Dark Age, your question 137 and my pathetic answer, 162. I really have made a pig’s ear out of this, haven’t I. Yes, avocado oil is good. And your question 209 to Kia, and Kia’s reply 237, are EXACTLY the kind of discussion I most value on this site. Keep up the good work.

  268. Makia January 30, 2007 9:01 am

    I hope her mom doesn’t read this site.

  269. Makia January 30, 2007 9:05 am

    KIA #237!!!

    On my way to work this morning - i was thinking about writing this to you! And Dr. Jane! That’s what i wanted to say to you, too!

    We are like, totally, psycho! I mean, psychic!

    . . . that is cool

  270. kia January 30, 2007 9:07 am

    Makia,

    What’s your recipe for Kinda Sleeza Rice? I doubt I have a pan large enough to hold all the lies required, one wonders what Colin Powell thinks.

    Jane, my question is what is your reaction to post #237. Zeph sez I lost him, can you help find him?

  271. Dr Jane Karlsson January 30, 2007 9:07 am

    Kindasleeza Rice. Omigod, that’s what aliens look like!!

  272. Dr Jane Karlsson January 30, 2007 9:13 am

    Makia 268, OMIGOD!! Yes, I should have known. You are seeing the same things I’m seeing! I always thought it should be possible to transmit mental images through the ether, and it looks to me like it’s happening! GTG

  273. Makia January 30, 2007 11:07 am

    ROFL

  274. zephyr January 30, 2007 11:14 am

    OK, so let me see if I’ve got this straight. Dr Jane expresses displeasure that no one wants to hear her theory. ‘Skinner, Makia, Kia and myself say it’s not so and implore her to impart some of her knowledge for the ages. She says something about pig’s ear soup or something, everybody agrees Condoleeza Rice is a very hideous-looking ……uhhh, thing, and the good doctor checks her watch (British time) and splits with her info still intact in her skull.

    Yup, I reread everything, that’s about the gist of it. Well, at least I feel better about using avocado oil. And one more thing, do a google search images for Rosa Delauro, congresswoman from CT. She makes Condi look like a goddess. Again, as my father would say, Rosa Delauro has a kind face….the kind of face you want to throw rocks at.

  275. Gordo January 30, 2007 11:22 am

    Uhh, your talking about a neurotic person who believes among other things in “pyramid power” (which peer reviewed journals were those clinical trials published in again?).

    How did this web site attract so many nuts anyway? Wonder if it affects the credibility of the actual homepage articles?

    Can’t discuss the prospects of deflation without also hearing about UFOs, aliens, quantum mechanics psycho-babble, and medical marijuana. And if you dare upset the peanut gallery, LOOK OUT, better put on the flame retardant!

  276. zephyr January 30, 2007 11:30 am

    Oops, looks like someone left the back gates to the psyche ward open again. That’s OK….c’mere Gordo, it’s time for your medication….remember….it makes you happy and social. We can mush it up and put it in your ice cream…just the way you like it. QUICK, Kia, grab the straightjacket!!!

  277. muleskinner January 30, 2007 11:36 am

    Hey, Gordo, gotta put up with the likes of you and your bunkum and bosh too; ad infinitum, ad nauseum. Watch out, B.F. Skinner is my uncle, so there.

    You were discussing global warming on a thread that concerned The New Dark Ages.

    Your pop science gets boring, believe me.

  278. kia January 30, 2007 11:42 am

    Zeph,

    Nothing you can do for someone who looks for information on climate from philosophy students bought and paid for by the hydrocarbon extraction industry, and can’t even find the Ron Paul thread to post in.

    Better to let him get a job in the cheney/bush administration twisting science.

    Here’s a peak at the IPCC report:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/30/world/30climate.html?th&emc=th

    Among the findings in recent drafts:

    The Arctic Ocean could largely be devoid of sea ice during summer later in the century.

    Europe’s Mediterranean shores could become barely habitable in summers, while the Alps could shift from snowy winter destinations to summer havens from the heat.

    Growing seasons in temperate regions will expand, while droughts are likely to ravage further the semiarid regions of Africa and southern Asia.

    Peace

    The FED better get printing, because I suspect that there won’t be enough money to deal with the upcoming changes.

  279. Makia January 30, 2007 11:52 am

    DONT UPSET THE PEANUT GALLERY!!!

    BHWAAAAAAAHHHHAAAAHAAAAHHHAAAAWHAAAAAAAHAAAAAA!!!!

    Not that it matters coming from me Gordo, but its nice to have normal folks like you around.

  280. kia January 30, 2007 11:53 am

    Here’s another good read on grizzlies, white pines and global warming

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/30/world/30climate.html?th&emc=th

    Reading this make you want to develop a buy-out for all govt scientists, so that they can freely speak the truth. As Dr. Logan says:

    “It’s all about global warming,”

    Peace

  281. zephyr January 30, 2007 12:04 pm

    Kia, stop making stuff up, you’re upsetting gordo. By the way, I’m trying to understand, why gordo? It translates to 2 things in Spanish 1) Jackpot or 2)Fatso. Seriously, I just did a search in trying to understand our new friend. I mean, he’s done so much to reach out to us, it was the least I could do.

  282. muleskinner January 30, 2007 12:16 pm

    If it weren’t for all of the inflation, espcially since 911, this discussion would be moot.

    A stable currency would be the solution. It is not worth a Continental.

    Here is some humor, mirth.

    The old-fashioned way because it’s an MP3:

    http://www.davidfary.com/DON%20IMUS%20THE%20BLACK%20BEATLES.MP3

  283. Makia January 30, 2007 12:18 pm

    zephyr #273. I’m totally with you on that.

  284. zephyr January 30, 2007 12:21 pm

    Ummmm, Makia 273 was you.

  285. kia January 30, 2007 12:27 pm

    Zeph,

    Don’t sweat it, I’m sure there will be a place for Talking Parrots:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/30/washington/30rules.html?th&emc=th

    This way science can conform to whatever direction oil lobbyist’s happen to be farting in.

    Muleskinner,

    This one”s for you (with apologies to your uncle):

    A YOUNG HILLBILLY NAMED KENNY, MOVED TO TEXAS AND BOUGHT A DONKEY FROM A
    FARMER FOR $100.00. THE FARMER AGREED TO DELIVER THE DONKEY THE NEXT DAY.

    THE NEXT DAY THE FARMER DROVE UP AND SAID, “SORRY SON, BUT I HAVE SOME BAD
    NEWS, THE DONKEY DIED.”

    KENNY REPLIED, “WELL, THEN, JUST GIVE ME MY MONEY BACK.”

    THE FARMER SAID, “CAN’T DO THAT. I WENT AND SPENT IT ALREADY.”

    KENNY SAID, “OK, THEN, JUST BRING ME THE DEAD DONKEY.”

    THE FARMER ASKED, “WHAT YA GONNA DO WITH HIM?”

    KENNY SAID, “I’M GOING TO RAFFLE HIM OFF.”

    THE FARMER SAID, “YOU CAN’T RAFFLE OFF A DEAD DONKEY!”

    KENNY SAID, “SURE I CAN. WATCH ME. I JUST WON’T TELL ANYBODY HE IS DEAD.”

    A MONTH LATER, THE FARMER MET UP WITH KENNY AND ASKED, “WHAT HAPPENED WITH
    THAT DEAD DONKEY?”

    KENNY SAID, “I RAFFLED HIM OFF. I SOLD 500 TICKETS AT TWO DOLLARS A PIECE
    AND MADE A PROFIT OF $998.00.”
    THE FARMER SAID, “DIDN’T ANYONE COMPLAIN?”

    KENNY SAID, “JUST THE GUY WHO WON. SO I GAVE HIM HIS TWO DOLLARS BACK.”

    KENNY EVENTUALLY BECAME THE CHAIRMAN OF ENRON.

  286. kia January 30, 2007 12:43 pm

    Muleskinner,

    Loved the Black Beatles, I mixed sound throughout the ’70s and had the pleasure to meet up with Al Kooper at a recording session with Jeff Beck. Al is a collector of these pieces and sent me this exact one on tape.

    As you can expect I am sitting on a lot of dying analog tape that I need to digitize (live shows with Zappa, Marley, Tosh, Oregon, Bill Monroe, Devo, etc.)

    Looking at MP3 the quality is too low, any suggestions for hardware/software would be appreciated as it is one of my 2007 projects.

    Thanks for the laugh.

  287. kia January 30, 2007 12:44 pm

    excuse me, dieing analog tape

  288. Makia January 30, 2007 12:55 pm

    274!! Wow.

  289. Makia January 30, 2007 1:00 pm

    . . . “Here’s your two dollars back.” Oh man, that’s the good stuff.

  290. zephyr January 30, 2007 1:03 pm

    Kia, can’t help but your list made me remember my first concert. Frank Zappa October 24, 1980, I was 15. Had a chance to see him again in ‘84. Was home for the weekend and wanted to see Zappa in New Haven with a friend. Well, this guy was a stoner and decided last second he didn’t want to go. Instead we sat in a parking lot and got stoned ( see, youth have always been stupid ). Anyway, I wasn’t too stressed because I had tickets for Zappa in Syracuse a couple of weeks later for when I went back to school. Well, he ended up cancelling the show. Then he decides to die. Well, maybe he didn’t decide to, but you get the point. One of my regrets in life. And it reinforces my motto never to put off something you really want to do because life has a way of throwing you curveballs. Do it while you can, do it while you’re young, do it while you’re healthy, do it while you’re alive.

    I loved my father but he never really offered me bits of wisdom. He was more the naughty limerick kind of guy, which was special in its own way, just not very practical in everyday use. Anyway, on his deathbed he told me exactly that. “Look at me how I am now. You enjoy life now while you can, while you’re young and healthy. Don’t wait or you’ll end up like me” It was one of the most precious gifts he could have given me….I try hard to live by that.

    Anyway, sorry if I got sidetracked, see you guys later….time to hike.

  291. ostrich January 30, 2007 1:43 pm

    Jane its not that I am not interested I’m trying to digest the implications, remember chem 101 and keep my sanity all at once. Life has been very precarious for me the last while. Obviously my own health hasn’t been all that great lately either which is testament to zephyr’s you don’t know when the curveballs are going to be thrown.

  292. beau January 30, 2007 3:57 pm

    Frank Zappa was one of the most original thinkers of our time.
    That is why the man never got much airplay.
    I highly reco. his outstanding autobiography.
    He did not trust the gov/corp or the media…check the song”I am the slime” for his thoughts on television.He wrote that one in the early eighties.
    RIP Frank.

    Beau-out

  293. kia January 30, 2007 4:14 pm

    Brother Zephyr,

    My days with FZ go back to 1st grade. FZ’s studio was on my ride to school in 1963. As a first grader I thought I had died and gone to heaven.

    The Grateful Dead played July 4ths at our county fair and say my first show in ‘68.

    I mixed sound through high school (never being enough of a musician to be on the business side of microphone), and into college doing the list above as well as Larry Coriel, Dave Mason, Burning Spear, Dire Straits, Flora Purim and Aierto (sp?), John McLauglin, Rory Gallager, John Lee Hooker and . It was a priceless education in one of my favorite art forms.

    Your Dad was no dummy,.

    Ostrich,

    Hang tough, we are with you. Go Outside, throw some curveballs at a snowman and laugh at the cosmic joke, the moon is rising as I type these positive waves to you.

    Time is the great teacher and….
    it Kills All It’s Students.

    Time to grab the skiis to go look for something in these snowy woods.

    Peace to You All,

  294. muleskinner January 30, 2007 9:41 pm

    I don’t know much about all of the economic data from the 1930’s. I’m kind of the village idiot.

    One thing is for certain, farmers were going broke. Not all of them, but a lot of them. Communist agitators were behind the milk dumping in Iowa. Farmers had made money during the good years. 1916 was a good year for farmers in these parts. A lot of barns were built that year.

    Back in those days, farmers were shipping grain to Canada. American farmers along the border made more money selling in Canada. Canadian farmers would grouse about the grain coming to market from the US, they blamed the US farmer for lower prices. One thing about grains, they sell, there will be buyers. It is a one hundred percent guarantee. People have to eat. A farmer who grew a field of grain before the depression had a small fortune from his harvest.

    A grain buyer that I know sells to French grain buyers. As customers go, the French are tough customers, he says.

    The good years lasted awhile during first thirty years of the twentieth century.

    Then it all went South.

    Here’s what happened during the summer of 1932:

    One Killed, Scores Hurt in Bonus Riots
    Army - troops on horseback down street followed by small tanks - Infantry running down street. They are going to evict Bonus Army from government buildings which are scheduled for demolition. Riot scenes, smoke bombs and tear gas thrown by troops. Army wearing gas masks as veterans give up. Police putting arrested men into police vans. Makeshift camp being burnt.
    Depression

    During the Dirty Thirties, communists were all over the place. I’m not trying to point fingers, they can be a political party if they want, that’s there business. Mother Bloor ran for governor in 1937 (?) in Pennsylvania. She garnered 21 percent of the vote.

    Some of the rhetoric from back years ago:

    At the sight of a “two-by-four boss,” Debs told a strike rally in Philadelphia in 1908, many working people “tremble and take off your hat. You are looking for some one to make an excuse to for being on earth.” The workingman, he prodded, “is so easily satisfied. He is strongly inclined to be content. Give him a miserable job; a two-by-four boss to wield the hunger whip over him; and a place to sleep and enough to eat to circulate his blood and keep him in working order, and his ambition is satisfied.” From his understanding of manhood, Debs attempted to offer these workers, who were then bickering over whether to call a sympathy strike in support of the striking streetcarmen, a vision beyond their isolation: “This world only respects as it is compelled to respect, and if you working men want to be respected you have got to begin by respecting yourselves. Get out of the capitalist parties. You do not belong there. You are in an environment that taints you, corrupts you, reduces you. All these affiliations are calculated to strip you of your manhood, reduce you to a condition where you are ashamed of yourself.”

    Leftist stinking propagandists, worse than Dick Cheney’s right wing propaganda when he converses with Wolf Pack Blitzer.

    It was a depression. People didn’t have any money. Economics meant one thing, something to eat. Unless you lived on the farm, some days were tough. At least on the farm there were chickens running around, grain in the bin, etc. I’ve seen socks that had been mended by a farmer’s wife from those days.

    The second link continues:

    “Official party membership doubled between 1909 and 1911 and increased another 40 percent in 1912, when the party achieved its highest recorded membership, almost 11 8,000 activists. The off-year elections also pointed to the renewed health of the movement. In 1910 Socialist party candidates for state and local office attracted nearly 700,000 voters, and in 1911 seventy-four cities and towns elected at least one Socialist mayor or major city official. From Schenectady, New York, to St. Marys, Ohio, from Coeur d’Alene, Idaho, to Berkeley and Watts, California, Socialist officials assumed office and utilized what power they possessed in support of local working people. Nowhere, Bohn proclaimed, were the results “unworthy of our cause. Everywhere our fundamental position was emphasized.” Looking forward to “1912-The Beginning of an Epoch, ” Bohn predicted that with the capitalist parties on the defensive the comrades would move “through this wilderness of crooked paths” and possibly capture more than two million votes in the presidential election.”"

    In my home state, the Socialists had publications, very active members, and a folk hero status of political candidates. The Governor of my home state back then was a Socialist sympathizer, he was later elected to the US Senate as a Republican. The Republican Party in my home state aligned itself with Socialist sympathizers called the Non-Partisan League. The US Senate didn’t want to seat him. Thousands showed up for his funeral when he died.

    Capitalism had been engineered to fail? Communists had made inroads into the political infrastructure of America. A good depression would tackle the problem. They have never returned to anywhere near the power they had.

    Did the capitalists engineer an economic depression to get rid of communists?

    I re-read Skeptical’s posts, and BondBubble’s posts too. Both are insightful, informed, and maybe both are right too. I don’t know who is right or wrong.

    I don’t know who is more disconcerting and unostentatious, Skeptical or BondBubble.

    Just trying to make sense of it all, that’s all.

    I began to laugh when I re-read words like jackass, moron, stupid ass, shit head, and then began to laugh even more.

    I can remain the village idiot, I’ve got some company. Rip Van Winkle comes to mind.

    My Mother talks about the days when grasshoppers swarmed the sky and ate the crops. They were gone… to dust.

    They weren’t the best of times. Communists were in there hayday. IWW workers running around the countryside looking for work. An old time farmer years ago said this about the IWW: I Won’t Work.

    I’ve seen a thousand geese in a farmer’s field eating his barley for free. He pulled out a 30-06, fired off about five rounds, left about five geese dead in field. All of the rest of them skedaddled for easier pickings.

    Maybe the capitalists did plan a depression, but I doubt they planned a crop failure. Or, maybe they did. Hemp production was outlawed by the Volstead Act. Hemp is a good cover crop, keeps the soil from eroding. Don’t need very many auxilliary inputs to get a crop. Farmers could plant it to keep their heads above water.

    Farm failures are a good way to foreclose on farms and confiscate a great deal of land. Banning a cash crop would be a good way to sink them.

    Maybe it was engineered.

    ‘Oh, the buzzards in the sky get so dizzy they can’t fly just from sniffin’ that good old mountain dew’

  295. muleskinner January 30, 2007 9:50 pm

    Correction: That’s ‘their’ business.

    Correction: Communists were in ‘their’ hay day.

  296. larry January 30, 2007 11:07 pm

    this thread began extremely well…and now you are all clowning around with private theories and crazy stuff….can i join?…hey,i hope some of you bought SUF when i suggested…sonocracking heavy crude to raise the API and remove sulphur and nitrogen and other metals….it’s the next white bread….get it while it’s hot…peak oil will cause energy issues to be the next mania stocks…monies gotta go somewhere…why not where i am invested…i hope…my theories are all to boorish and so since you all have a certain gestault goin on here i will spare you…dr. jane,you are getting into very wild stuff…not your run of the mill charming english girl…you are very well versed,,,in mucho material….and i repeat….grains ain’t all bad but not good for the average western person…you know what i mean…

  297. Makia January 31, 2007 4:37 am

    Time is the great teacher and….
    it Kills All It’s Students.

    they just keep comin.

    Larry, i wish i was invested. My particular situation favors dwelling on gestalt issues. It is useful for now, for some.

    Plus there’s a “lowest common denominator,” where talking too much about your expertise lends itself to talking to the air. Someone said, “that which makes you exceptional will also make you lonely.” I think someone here has referenced that thought recently.

    the challenge of the expert (when he/she is teaching) is to put the information in a place where the student is familiar looking. On the other hand, if you’re trying to get someone to look where they usually don’t - well that just complicates the whole issue but its one of my favorite pastimes.

    anyways, great to hear your voice larry

  298. zephyr January 31, 2007 5:19 am

    you could hear his voice?

  299. Makia January 31, 2007 5:58 am

    no, i couldn’t

    thats why i like you zephyr, you’re so observant

  300. muleskinner January 31, 2007 6:01 am

    SUF looks like a winner, even if they’re getting sued some.

    That sonocracking is some wild stuff. I’ll bet a few investors were happy yesterday.

    I remember looking up the symbol and taking a look at it though. A minus 7.72 PE is a troublesome number.

    It takes two barrels of oil to extract one barrel of tar sand deposit oil, so I get skeptical. Maybe the sonocracking might change all of that too. I’m willing to listen.

    I have tried to invest in stocks with excess cash from market gains and have been burned purdy heavily a couple of times.

    It makes me gun shy. I’ll stay the re-invested dividend route for awhile.

  301. Dr Jane Karlsson January 31, 2007 6:28 am

    Larry, I entirely agree with you. I much prefer to be the ‘charming’ and somewhat flippant English girl. I like the girl bit, I’m 63. Important things are happening in the world, and I need to try to get across the things I have spent most of my life working out. I have no theories, a theory is based on only SOME of the facts. Taxpayers’ money was spent training me, and taxpayers have a right to hear my results.

    One of the things taxpayers ought to be most interested to hear is whether the earth can support all of them, or whether they are for the chop when Bush & Blair get around to using their nukes. Obviously, if you are right and Westerners shouldn’t eat grain, there are too many Westerners.

    Likewise, if the reason we don’t have a viable replacement for the oil when it runs out is that physicists have got the physics wrong, it would be best if people knew about this so they can get it right. I always call myself ‘Dr Jane Karlsson’ on these threads so someone with the right computer programme can access everything I have said. This site is my channel for getting my results across to certain organisations who are listening in here. Michael, I have not asked your permission to do this, and I am sorry.

  302. Dr Jane Karlsson January 31, 2007 6:36 am

    Does anyone know where Rich is? Rich, if you are there, Adam Hamilton is bullish on gold, have a look. Skeptical, what’s wrong with the foreign central banks dumping the dollar for gold?

  303. Dr Jane Karlsson January 31, 2007 6:45 am

    Sapiens, thanks for that website. I’m very sorry, I can’t really say anything. The articles I glanced at don’t relate what they say to the experiments, so it isn’t possible for me to evaluate them.

  304. zephyr January 31, 2007 7:33 am

    Dr. Jane, you still haven’t answered, what’s your take on 209 and 237, especially relating to your studies.

    As for the rest, obviouly I can’t speak for Michael, but you’ve brought a wealth of knowledge and information to the table. I know what it feels like to KNOW something and to try to share it, and it is either blocked or it falls on deaf ears. In your case, I’m sure it must be extraordinarily frustrating. If it’s worth anything, you’ve reached some folks here who are grateful.

    Let me share a brief experience. This is sort of like jamming the history of the world into a nutshell, but here goes. In 1995, I did a cross country walk for about 3& 1/2 to 4 months. It was a spiritual journey for me and a walk of faith in the sense that I relied mainly on the goodness of others and the direction of God to take care of all my needs. 90% of the time, I started the day not knowing where I would sleep that night. But everything worked out fine. I left with the intention of bringing hope, faith, enlightenment, something to others. Well I ended up receiving much more than I could have ever imagined.

    I did cut my trip short upon entering the south because I was “not welcome”. I’ll leave it at that for now except to say that is why you always here me calling fundamentalists hypocrites because their southern hospitality and their version of being a “good Christian” is mostly bullshit. Anyway, here is what I’m getting at:

    At the end of my walk I was at some church in Tennessee with my wife’s relatives. The sermon I heard that day felt like it was meant for me and I have always remembered it. Whether you believe Noah to be real or a myth does not matter. Basically, the pastor said that God imparted knowledge to Noah which was crucial, of vital importance. He entrusted it to one man to do with what he could. And Noah tried to convince everyone that a flood was coming. Everyone thought he was nuts but he kept trying. And in the end, all Noah got on board were his family and the animals. DID NOAH FAIL?

    On the face of it, perhaps. Because he had set out to save everyone. But it just wasn’t meant to be. Sometimes all you can do is save just a few, or just your family. But is that failure? Sometimes you can only do what is whithin your power.

    Now at the time, I was not getting along with my 2 brothers and it was significant and painful. Remember what I was doing? Everyone thought I was nuts. Well, not everyone but I thought that despite this grand adventure I still had not brought peace to my immediate family and at that time I thought it would be impossible. But in my heart I knew my journey had served its purpose and it was time to go home. And, yes, it took some time, but the family all gets along now. In God’s time, as I have heard before.

    Well, that’s my personal experience. But the gist is, sometimes no matter how noble your attempt is, you can’t save the world. But you can touch some folks very near to you and still make a difference.

    OK, soapbox away. Luv ya, Jane!

  305. muleskinner January 31, 2007 7:41 am

    Not untermenschen, but siesin is the word that takes the cake on this thread.

    I had to look it up. Too curious to ignore it.

    I’ve been collecting gopher wood for years now.

  306. Makia January 31, 2007 7:57 am

    Muleskinner, isn’t that German for “SHIT”! Thanks a lot.

    Ohhhh, title and property. Okay, but what does that have to do with “under men?”

    Speaking of gophers: How much wood would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?

    Well a woodchuck would chuck as much wood as a woodchuck could chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood.

  307. mikeck44 January 31, 2007 8:57 am

    Dr. Karlsson, Okay, you got me. I Googled you and was not able to identify the mystery of the universe in anything that came up there. I do feel though that I am getting it little by little here at BNB. I quit eating margarine long ago and am glad to find that you approve. Really, I enjoy your input and what it brings out.

    Muelskinner, My Grandmother was still mending socks in the 50’s, old habits…

    Zephyr, I’m sorry to hear about your having to cut you walk short. I can’t believe you would have gotten that kind of treatment in Central Tennessee or Northwest Alabama.

    Makia, Yes, I believe he would if he could. Congrats on the addition to your family.

  308. zephyr January 31, 2007 9:07 am

    Makia, either you’re not getting enough sleep or you’re taking some sort of drug that you should be sharing with me. I’m so bummed…..I pour my heart out in 304 and you guys are talking about shit and woodchucks. Oh, well. I guess that means it’s time for a new forum….Oh, Michael, time to get up off your ass and write another topic for the natives to chew on.

    Ever notice when a new topic arrives, all these people come out of the woodwork to comment (which they should), but then they disappear again when a select few knuckleheads (we know who we are) get on board and start going nuts with all sorts of tangents. After awhile it seems as if it’s just like 5,6,7 of us with the occassional insane outburst from someone like Kastor or Gordo reminding us that we’re talking about aliens and stuff like that. Hmmmm, maybe they’re right.

    So, do all these other folks read our insane ramblings. Are they amused, bemused, shocked, fearful, outraged, happy, bored, horny, hungry, itchy. It’s these things that wake me up during the night (well, that and a full bladder-gotta stop drinking all that tasty Silk chocolate soymilk before bed).

    Well, now I’ve proven I can be as unstable as you, Makia. Another pearl from dear ol’ dad…..about wishing for something: Wish in one hand and shit in the other, what do you have? A hand full of shit! Dad didn’t have much use for wishing apparently. Or woodchucks!

  309. Makia January 31, 2007 9:07 am

    mikeck44:

    a) If only he could, and

    b) Hopefully she makes it past 2013!

    Stupid end of enternity!

    *wink

    Oh, and i guess “shit” is shizen, not siesen. But i love plays on foriegn words. Such an underused gimmick of humor. . . IMHO, of course.

  310. Makia January 31, 2007 9:21 am

    Zephyr, i love ya man.

    And i’m unstable alright - unstable like a fox!

    Other than that zephyr, yes, I do notice all these things you’re talking about in #308, including the fact that no one sent you a brownie button for your long walk.

    Speaking of which, have you read “The Long Walk” by Richard Bachman (aka Steven King), now THAT’S a walk!

    And finally: TO ALL OF YOU WHO READ OUR RANTING AND DON’T CONTRIBUTE:

    well, i’ll take it as a compliment to the company i keep. You like to listen to these, but don’t know what you possibly have to add? Well, as much as i am flattered, y’all should chime in more. And those that just chime in at the beginning of the threads - maybe you just talk to hear yourselves! Ya self-centered jabronies! Take a trick from the quiet people and read more of what other people have to say! (Except me most of the time, i basically just serve as comic releif, but it doesn’t take much too ignore my rambling.)

    AND FOR THE RECORD: i didn’t bring up woodchucks, i just wondered about the dillema of being a woodchuck and yet not having the capacity (will?) to chuck wood. What a world!

  311. Makia January 31, 2007 9:24 am

    Zephyr:

    a) HERE is your brownie button, and

    b) i’m not that different when i’m on drugs anyway, you wouldn’t know the difference

  312. zephyr January 31, 2007 9:24 am

    Thanks Miceck44. Yeah, at the time I was pretty naive. I thought we were all God’s children. But unfortunately, most southerners made it clear to me that I was a Yankee. That was my first mistake, being from the Northeast. Second, I had affiliations with the Catholic and Episcopal churches. They didn’t like that either. So they wanted nothing to do with me. They had a preconceived notion of me without even getting to know me or without even talking to me.

    And I sincerely thought, Hey! We’re all Christians (those that were that I met on the trip), ignore the differences, the denominations. I quickly was brought up to speed. It was like the story of the good Samaritan. So-called people of God, pastors of churches coldly closed their doors to me while a passing mailman asked what I was up to and gave me a place to stay and a meal with his family. That’s why I believe people are people. There are good and bad Christians, Buddhists, Jews, Hindus, Muslims, atheists, agnostics, Wika/Witches, etc. You get the point. I still believe no one is to judge another, that’s up to God. You treat everyone equally and with love.

    My wife’s cousin in a Greek Orthodox priest and feels badly for us that we’ll probably be going to hell since we’re not Orthodox. What kind of a religion is that?

    Anyway, thanks for the comment, brother!

  313. zephyr January 31, 2007 9:26 am

    Makia, U Da Man!!!

  314. zephyr January 31, 2007 9:30 am

    And what the hell is a brownie button? Man, I must be ignorant or stupid or naive. Just rush to agree…Thank Ya…Thank Ya very much! (Elvis impersonation….loses a little something without sound)

  315. muleskinner January 31, 2007 9:38 am

    The comments early on from Crazy G, Breck, Pinatubo, Hose, V man, Skeptical, airtight etc. are all excellent, topnotch comments on the subject. It requires lots of brain power to come up with such thoughts. They’re tapped out, they rest up.

    Great reference material. More valuable than one realizes. It’s a national treasure, really.

    I’ll stop my mindless drivel for awhile.

  316. ostrich January 31, 2007 9:52 am

    zephyr 312- right on - I always guide myself from the fact “we all bleed red”.
    Don’t know about aliens though hehe

  317. Makia January 31, 2007 9:52 am

    Muleskinner, you’re saying that thet’re posts are National Treasure, or the site is, or what do you mean? Also, DON”T DEFEND THEM! If their as smart as you say, then they’re smart enough to not be bothered by my ranting!

    (i am totally just kidding guys, just trying to make a folk or two smile - and probably failing miserably but Michael hasn’t deleted my posts yet. . . )

    Skinner, in the end, i certainly beleive that this site is an extremely valuable resource - for those that stumble upon it. I partly feel improper for some of my off-the-cuff comments, but on the other hand i beleive that the organic nature of this site coupled with semi-extroverted and dynamic personalities make this site what it is. Someone reading these threads for insight into topical matters should not forget the topics of day-to-day life and “mundane” human interaction.

    It requires lots of brain power to come up with such thoughts. They’re tapped out, they rest up.

    Well put.

  318. Makia January 31, 2007 9:53 am

    ZEPHYR! A brownie button is the eqivalent of a cub scout badge. Get with it man!

  319. Makia January 31, 2007 9:56 am

    (”cub scout badge”, however, has no alliteration, so doesn’t roll off the tounge in that sarcastic manner as easily)

  320. zephyr January 31, 2007 10:04 am

    Oh, Makia…………………………..U………..DA………………….MAAAAAAAAAAAAAN!!!!!!!!!!!! Hoo-Rah!!!

    Makia, We want you on that wall…..we need you on that wall!!!

  321. zephyr January 31, 2007 10:07 am

    Plus, I wasn’t in anything as fruity as cub scouts, that’s why the terms means nada, zip, zilch.

  322. muleskinner January 31, 2007 10:13 am

    Oh yeah, zephyr, I purposely avoided your name. Don’t get mad at me. “Why in the hell didn’t he mention my name?”

    I’ll mention comment number 30.

    Everyone here deserves acknowledgment.

    Can I exclude anonymous for offering his bilge, his menacing flotsam? I think I can.

    The site is becoming a repository, maybe outdistancing the Library of Congress. The Library of Congress has met its match. If you have never been there, go. Unbelievable place, it’s great. The posts here are the national treasure.

    “Do you hate them now, Grandfather? Do you hate the white man now?”

  323. zephyr January 31, 2007 10:40 am

    ‘Skinner, what the hell you talkin’ about? The only time I said something like that was about our resident nutbag, Gordo. We call each other by name all the time. And what does post 30 have to do with anything? ‘Skinner, you OK? You’re frightening me….have you been drinking on the job again? :-)

  324. Makia January 31, 2007 11:10 am

    Yeah, post 30 is good.

  325. Makia January 31, 2007 11:11 am

    (shut up zephyr, its a compliment)

  326. Makia January 31, 2007 11:13 am

    now i need a hint: zephyr, what wall?

  327. muleskinner January 31, 2007 11:19 am

    I think it’s the thinking, not the drinking. Thinking ’til I’m thunk.

    “I gotta be honest with you” implies that you weren’t intending to be honest at all.

    I’m not duplicitous, tricking anybody. Just trying to bare my soul some.

    Larry, is SUF being pumped and dumped? Almost, not quite, hardly?

    Hoyt also wrote The Pusher, you know, Steppenwolf, from the movie ‘Easy Rider.’

  328. m1953 January 31, 2007 11:38 am

    #310 Makia, I am one of the people who reads the discussions several times a day but does contribute much. Suffice to say the quality of writing and expression that Zephyr, Yourself and others exhibit is top notch and I feel a little out of my league, not in understanding or following, but i just feel my writing skills suck compared to most of the regular contributors.. Speaking only for myself, The “rantings” about Aliens and such DO NOT detract in any way from the great insights and extremly well written, informative posts i find here. Remember, the “Aliens”, “Bill Cooper” “Silent Weapons” discussions, is for me just another verbalization of what I think many alert and bright people are feeling these last 6 years. To wit, something very bad is happening, we catch glimses here and there, but in general our freedoms are being eroded, we now have complet psychopaths in dod and whithouse discussing using nuclear weapons against Iran, we live in a nation that produces almost no physical products, our economy is a glorified ponzi scheme, NO the flow of topics and ideas i see in these threads is quite natural. I was 11 years old during the Kennedy Missile Crisis, and I now feel much more dread today that we are standing at the brink. With Kennedy we felt some security that the man was level headed, that he knew first hand what combat and war are, and that he was surrounded by high quality experienced people, enough said, I feel we are at the brink, with a complete ingnorant administration at the helm

  329. ostrich January 31, 2007 11:43 am

    326- you can’t handle the truth

  330. bp January 31, 2007 11:43 am

    hm, an interesting article that probably is more related to America’s Dark ages but that thread seems kinda dead - http://www.nybooks.com/articles/19879

  331. zephyr January 31, 2007 11:48 am

    Thank you Ostrich, c’mom Makia, think…..hint Jack Nickolson, Tom Cruise…..that wall.

  332. zephyr January 31, 2007 12:00 pm

    m1953, don’t short change yourself. I see nothing in that post that would imply not having anything to offer. And your writing skills are fine. I often look back at my posts and see something I should have caught before hitting the submit button. And I reread my stuff a couple of times before posting and I still catch mistakes. C’mon aboard, it’s a free ride here and the passenger’s are pretty cool. Watch out for Gordo though….he might pee in your soup when you’re not looking.

  333. Makia January 31, 2007 12:11 pm

    m1953, that means a lot for you to chime in. I mostly ignore it but a little voice asks me if anybody but the regular contributors would care what we do in here.

    and i wonder who the regular contributors are. I owe some people beers and i don’t even know where they live.

    m1953, also, you need to stay positive in your frustration. I don’t call myself an optimist, but i do have a great deal of hope. When my hope for humanity wanes, i still have a great deal of hope for life-on-earth, when that wanes i figure, “hey, if everythings dead then there’s nothing to worry about.” My point is not to find delight in the macabre, but to reject fear - and to accept uncertainty. I am wholly uncertain and yet wholly happy with the long-term prospects of consciousness.

    But its not about being uncertain, or about being certain. the taiji masters talk about being “steel wrapped in silk.” And when you touch a guy/girl who lives this, you can feel in through their tissue. Their tissues act as one unit and that unit has properties of steel wrapped in silk.

    To me this is the physical equivalent to how to use uncertainty. If you are completely certain then you are stiff and easy to knock off balance. If you are completely uncertain then you will flop around, doing nothing, laying on the couch, not being able to have any opinion except “nothings for sure so ya just never know.”

    So it is useful to find “core beleifs”. And to be clear, i am of the opinion that you don’t choose core beleifs, you find them. When you are certain about things, you are internally strong, but vulnerable stagnant due to stiffness. So you find core beleifs and then you find opinions. And these things! They’re easy to find!

    And once you find some opinions (that you can let go of/not care about/not be sure how valuable they are) you can be uncertain about these things. Then you just put your core certainties at your core and you let your opinions on the surface, ready to shift, shake, or absorb.

    No one cares about your beleifs. Conversations about beleifs have their place but they are not as common and even more rarely useful to the people who engage in them and even more rarely entertaining to an observer (or as Dr. Jane might say, “a less active participant”).

    So IMO, the most basic pursuit of a seeker is to be able to feel a person’s core through their superficial. Being able to do it within yourself helps develop tools that help you “feel” others. Being able to see in others helps you to see within yourself. There is a great deal of reciprocity in the universe.

    That is why you MUST BE CAREFUL!!!

    “Be careful what you fear, you will attract it.”

    “Be careful what you hate, you will become it.”

    This is an ancient saying that points to the GREAT POWER of consiousness. Humans embody an enormous amount of consiousness relative to what we are able to perceive. Consiousness shapes reality before words and actions do. Words and actions _come from_ consiousness. Be careful what you hate, be careful what you fear. There is no such thing as a passive observer, science has PROVEN this. Do not let human’s opinions on the subject distract you from the fact.

    As long as the peace movement fails to see the connectedness, it will be enveloped by war. As long as an individual seeks peace but fails to use the connectedness, he/she will be lost and frustrated.

    I don’t criticize anything i haven’t done myself.

  334. Makia January 31, 2007 12:25 pm

    and not all of us are good writers, larry’s a real smart guy but as a typer he sucks. . . in my humble opinion

    i’d love to leave it at that but i want to add that i’ve got a lot of love for larry and a lot of other people here. even gordo and kastor i’m sure would not be bad to have a beer with every once and a while.

    see, opinions are where the interactions happen. they are important to have and important to disregard. as the saying goes, and its true “opinions are just like asshole, everyone has ‘em and they all stink.” Embrace it.

    Oh, that wall. . .
    zephyr, this is where we meet the limits of my sense of humor, and i’m sure we haven’t come very far. I guess i have a hard time shortly after leaving the realm of fart and homosexual preist jokes.

    But nonetheless, show me the wall and i’m on it. For you brother!

  335. Rich January 31, 2007 2:14 pm

    Holy moley I ain’t reading over 300 posts to get caught up!!

    What has been going on here? Don’t you people have jobs to do!? Hehe!

    I’ve been trying to keep mine so I’ve been off radar for a while. Funnily enough I’ve found that I really didn’t miss anything huge in terms of world shattering events! This de-in-stag-flation thing is moving at a snail’s pace whatever it is.

    During the Blitz/Battle of Britain in WWII there was a period before things got really going that the locals called The Phoney War, everyone was just waiting for months for the war to start. Well I feel like I’m just waiting and waiting anymore, and in a way I’m glad for that - the longer this beast takes to rear it’s ugly head the better off we all are - but paradoxically the worse off we’ll be in the long run becaue we’re compounding the problem by not dealing with it.

    Sooner or later the debt must be flushed, it would be nice if that happened before the entire sewage system is backed up and stinking to high heaven.

    Cheers Rich

  336. Makia January 31, 2007 2:34 pm

    Rich, i’d say you missed a bit and it might be nice to catch up. . . unless you value your job that is. Actually, if you skip my incidental posts, your reading gets cut in half, so ROCK ON!

    Actually i post all my stuff at work. And somehow, my productivity is higher than most everyone i work with. Nonetheless, i am extremely happy that i’m able to occupy my mind throughout the day with yunz’s ideas. I’ve noticed a crazy dynamic of theBull, touched upon a little by Zephyr#308. Another part of it is that we are all from pretty different parts of society and the globe and in different parts of our lives, with kids and without. This unseen dynamic influences theBull a great deal, under the surface.

    neat stuff

    enjoy

  337. kia January 31, 2007 3:08 pm

    Zeph (#304),

    One of my favorite stories about religions and their sects is of the fellow who was about to jump off a bridge when another fellow runs up to him, crying: “Stop. Stop. Stop. Don’t do it.”

    The man on the bridge looks down and asks, “Why not?”

    “Well, there’s much to live for.”

    “Like what?”

    “Well, your faith. Are you religious?”

    “Yes.”

    “Me, too. Christian or Buddhist?”

    “Christian.”

    “Me, too. Are you Catholic or Protestant?”

    “Protestant.”

    “Me, too. Methodist, Presbyterian, Baptist?”

    “Baptist.”

    “Me, too. Are you original Baptist Church of God or Reformed Baptist Church of God?”

    “Reformed Baptist Church of God.”

    “Me, too. Are you Reformed Baptist Church of God Reformation of 1820, or Reformed Baptist Church of God Reformation of 1912?”

    “1912.”

    Whereupon the second fellow turned red in the face, shouted, “Die, you heretic scum,” and pushed him off the bridge.”

  338. zephyr January 31, 2007 3:14 pm

    Yeah, Kia, that’s about right unfortunately. Welcome back, Rich!! Missed your commentary.

  339. larry January 31, 2007 6:13 pm

    333makia…geez,you are one heck of a propagandist….as a compliment…idea…hire out to write for dr. ron paul…you are great at communicating….my education in retrospect was way to heavy on memorization and light on communications and innovative thinking…it something i struggle against…my best tool is to simply ask myself….self…what am i failing to hear or what am i not hearing well enough…also,what is being expressed,helps me

  340. Makia February 1, 2007 5:35 am

    Thanks larry.

    I used to want to write a book. The title? “The meaning of life.” Tough book to write.

    That was when my beleifs weren’t as strong but my opinions were stronger. In balancing these, i lost my desire try and express all this stuff in my writing.

    You guys see where the evolution has brought me. I can write, but the difference, i suppose, is words are limited. I want to write a book that people can use for all the good stuff, but i fear my words being misinterpreted and misused. Today, i wouldn’t say i “play it safe,” but i would say that i try and point at deep things through talking about the mundane and shallow and comical. I don’t hide the deep things, i just acknowledge my limitation in expressing them. More importantly, people just don’t want to hear it all the time. And people who do need to “lighten” up.

    I would love to make money doing this - in the past that was part of my problem. Today i just wait for my “signal.” Actually, today i frequent a little-ol-website called BullnotBull and contribute to one of our nations finest resources.

  341. Makia February 1, 2007 6:34 am

    http://www.safehaven.com/article-6813.htm

    . . . in the words of a great wise man:

    BWAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAHHHHAAAAAA. . . BWHAAAAAAAHHHHAAAAAAHHAAAAHHAAAHAAAAAAAAAA!!!

  342. Makia February 1, 2007 6:35 am

    #341 - [laffing so hard hafing a hard tyme tieping!]

  343. skeptical February 1, 2007 6:57 am

    Dr Jane says “Skeptical, what’s wrong with the foreign central banks dumping the dollar for gold?”

    First, there aint enough gold in the world to buy up with all the dollars that China has.

    Second, gold is the antithesis of fiat money and all countries are on purely fiat systems. Therefore buying gold is the opposite of what they want to do.

    Third, high gold price = loss of confidence in their paper money. They are NOT going to be a part of making their sheeple loose confidence in their “money”.

    Fourth, if you could counterfeit money (had a printing press) would you care about holding and protecting (guarding) and hard asset like gold? Of course not. To the bankers of the world gold really is a “relic of the past”.

    There is a good article out today (am looking for the link) about how the IMF is thinking of dumping 400 tons of gold on the market (price with drop big time) so that they can use their “cash” from these sales to speculate with.

  344. skeptical February 1, 2007 6:59 am

    Makia “I used to want to write a book. The title? “The meaning of life.” Tough book to write.”

    I am writing a book - Title “I reject your reality and substitute my own”. This is also a tough book to write. Hope I can finish it.

  345. Rich February 1, 2007 7:09 am

    Here’s the IMF article:

    IMF urged to sell 400t of gold
    01/02/2007 08:18
    Washington - A panel of financial statespeople advised the IMF on Wednesday to sell 400 tons of its gold reserves as part of a new strategy to avert a long-term crunch in its finances.

    But the International Monetary Fund should proceed with care in selling any gold to avoid destabilising world markets, the panel members including former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan recommended.

    The IMF has more than 3 200 metric tons of gold as part of its financial stockpile, but has fought shy of offloading any of it. The sale of 400 tons could raise $6.6bn at current market prices, the panel said.

    IMF chief Rodrigo Rato appointed the panel in May last year to come up with ideas to avert a cash crisis for the global lender, which has seen its operational income slump as debtor countries repay their Fund loans early.

    The committee was chaired by Andrew Crockett, former head of the Bank for International Settlements, and also included European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet and People’s Bank of China governor Zhou Xiaochuan.

    Interest income dwindles

    Crockett called it “curious” that the IMF does better financially when its members are in economic crisis, as it earns much of its day-to-day income from interest repayments on bailout loans.

    To change this, the panel said the IMF should broaden its investment mandate, with a view to generating extra income of $45m a year on capital markets.

    And the IMF could invest part of the annual dues paid by its 185 members, yielding a potential $300m a year.

    “There is no financial crisis facing the Fund,” Crockett told a press conference.

    But he stressed: “We do believe it is important to begin this process of developing a new income model soon, so we recommend that it starts straight away.”

    New income model

    Rato welcomed the recommendations, which will be taken up for debate by the IMF’s executive board.

    “The report represents a key milestone in our work and is an important step in developing an appropriate new income model,” the IMF managing-director said.

    Money from the gold sales should be put in an endowment fund, which could yield annual investment profits of $195m, the report by Crockett’s panel said.

    “The committee emphasises that these limited gold sales should be handled in a way to avoid causing disturbances to the functioning of the gold market and, accordingly, should be coordinated with current and future central bank gold agreements so as not to add to the volume of sales from official sources.”

    Crockett stressed: “The committee has been quite careful to try to devise a proposal that does not create dangers of destabilising the gold market.”

    Breaking free

    The IMF’s finances have become strained as more and more clients emerge from years of economic crisis, during which they became reliant on its bailouts, to stand on their own feet.

    The latest country to exit IMF supervision is Ecuador, whose new leftist government said this month it would pay back its $33m debt early.

    The IMF expects to post an operating shortfall of $105m in its current fiscal year through April, with $67m of that linked to early repayments from Indonesia, Serbia and Uruguay.

    To plug an immediate shortfall, the IMF said last May it would transfer its cash reserves of $8.7bn into a new investment account to generate extra returns on the bond markets.

    But Rato noted at the time that the IMF needed to come up with long-term solutions to its funding problems.
    +++++++++++++++++++++++

    One of the amazing things in the article is mention of the fact that the IMF always benefits when it’s “customers” are in financial meltdown. This was the pattern of the post war era, borrow from the IMF and be forced in to permanent financial crisis for the benefit of western banks. I guess the game is moving to a new level and soon the IMF will be done as a functioning loan shark, backed by western military industrial and oil industrial complexes, etc.

    The release of gold in to the market makes little sense when it is rising faster than any other financial asset the proceeds could be invested in. From purely banking terms they should keep that investment and right-size the bank so as to be sitting on a gigantic growing asset base. Then they should find a way to help small developing nations with loans specifically for sustainable development projects and GIVE BACK to the world some of what they have stolen. They could NEVER do enough, but they could start trying.

    Cheers Rich

  346. muleskinner February 1, 2007 7:15 am

    Makia, didn’t Monty Python write that book already?

    Skeptical, here is a link I found on the 400 ton gold ’sale.’ Included in the story was this:

    “The IMF’s finances have become strained as more and more clients emerge from years of economic crisis, during which they became reliant on its bailouts, to stand on their own feet.

    The latest country to exit IMF supervision is Ecuador, whose new leftist government said this month it would pay back its 33-million-dollar debt early, so depriving the Fund of income from interest repayments.

    The IMF expects to post an operating shortfall of 105 million dollars in its current fiscal year through April, with 67 million of that linked to early repayments from Indonesia, Serbia and Uruguay.”

    Turkish Press

    The IMF likes cheap gold. They buy it. They also like expensive gold. They sell it. They’re going to sell the expensive stuff so they can buy the cheap stuff.

    Something smells rotten in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Russia, England, The United States, you name it.

    God bless America. I stand beside her. Let God guide her.

    The US government can go fly a kite.

  347. Makia February 1, 2007 7:18 am

    Crockett called it “curious” that the IMF does better financially when its members are in economic crisis, as it earns much of its day-to-day income from interest repayments on bailout loans.

    OMIGOD! i have spent more time on the floor today, laughing my head off, than i care to. You guys have to stop with all the comedy - i’m tellin ya. Woooooo!

  348. Makia February 1, 2007 7:25 am

    Muleskinner, yeah, i just couldn’t think of a better name for it. I figured the genres wouldn’t be the same, so that might help. Plus, while nobody will care about my book for the next couple hundred years, no one will care about that movie in a couple hundred years, so - in my mind anyway - it should work out.

    I’m sure once i’m dead my words will mean much more.

    - I love that movie. Especially the part where - just kidding, the whole thing is awesome!

  349. Makia February 1, 2007 7:29 am

    Skeptical we should collaborate. And by collaborate i mean you write both books and i’ll take credit for the less awesome one.

    -I just can’t seem to stop. What i mean to say skeptical is that we should collaborate.

  350. zephyr February 1, 2007 7:57 am

    Rich,345, That’s assuming any of the people there had a conscience.

    Besides, something’s up. These people have to know that fiat’s future is limited given the current global imbalances and fiscal insanity,and therefore that it makes no sense to dump gold. My guess is that they are selling gold as a business, as a group, and then buying it back as individuals. Then when the shit hits the fan, they’re all set. Everybody takes care of themselves first. And especially if you’re greedy and have enormous resources, this motto is magnified.

    They’re just doing this as subtly as they can. It’s sort of like the US buying back it’s own debt through the Cayman Isles. Got to keep everything afloat as long as they can while they make plans for their own survival. Anybody that thinks differently just doesn’t know human nature…..survival and greed…..me first.

  351. A Bit Confused February 1, 2007 8:24 am

    I keep reading articles, trying to understand how things work. It seems we are screwed but the markets keep rallying? The malls and freeways are still jammed. If we’ve already had “hyperinflation” seems we got through it just fine. All I see is fat happy seniors putzing around the golf courses. Maybe it is the calm before some kind of storm? It seems the point of articles like this is to prove to me that the Fed and the banks and the government are here to screw me and take all they can. Is it true? And if it is, then what makes sense in terms of action? The only suggestion I seem to read over and over is to buy gold.

    Hell, if you guys don’t like those worthless fiat dollars, send them my way.

    The word Internet should have a capital “I.”

  352. Makia February 1, 2007 8:31 am

    #351, join my club

  353. A Bit Confused February 1, 2007 8:34 am

    A country club?

  354. kia February 1, 2007 8:37 am

    Rich,

    “Then they should find a way to help small developing nations with loans specifically for sustainable development projects and GIVE BACK to the world some of what they have stolen. They could NEVER do enough, but they could start trying.”

    Welcome back, I always appreciate idealism in the face of the facts. John Perkins “Economic Hit Man” is the primer for all of us unfamiliar with the IMF a shill for the US Treasury and Anglo-American interests. Latin American has been run through the IMF “wash cycle” several times since the early 70’s and have come to realize that not only have they been set up with a set of life time payments to the IMF, but their country’s infrastructure in no longer their own. Thus the push for these countries in debt to the IMF to pay off the tab and get out the door of the “company store.”

    Chavez’s Bolivarization program is a direct reaction to forty years of IMF pilfering. The rise of Evo Morales in Bolivia, and Correa in Ecuador are a new beginning for the peoples of the world who want, and deserve to benefit from in global fair trade.

    Imagine what the world would be like if individual countries worldwide could benefit from the labor/resources/expertise that they have to offer without the “help” of central bankers, foreign military, and intelligence agency black ops constantly trying to tilt the playing field to the advantage of multinational corporations and international financiers.

    “You may call me a dreamer, but I’m not the only one” - John Lennon

    Peace and Prosperity for All

  355. mikeck44 February 1, 2007 9:03 am

    Skeptical/Rich/Muleskinner,

    This is also in the piece about IMF gold sales:
    “The committee emphasizes that these limited gold sales should be handled in a way to avoid causing disturbances to the functioning of the gold market and, accordingly, should be coordinated with current and future central bank gold agreements so as not to add to the volume of sales from official sources.”
    +++++++
    There is a way to see this in a positive light for the price of gold. If the central banks are having trouble coming up with the amount they agreed to sale via the Washington Agreement, which appears to be the case, this could fill in the gaps in an attempt to keep the sales rolling along at the planned pace; therefore, suppressing knowledge of their problems in coming up with the agreed amount to sale.

    Also, this from Jim Sinclair:

    ” 1. Any sale by the IMF or any central bank on gold will never see the market.
    2. Historically such sales, even if they appear to be related to the market, is in fact to other central banks.
    3. With almost ever central bank wishing to diversify their reserves and with gold clearly as a performing asset, selling all of the IMF gold would be easy because of central bank interest.
    4. Historically, the selling of gold by the IMF was the most bullish thing that happened for the 1968 to 1980 bull market. The reason this is true is because it allows major players to enter the gold market in large lots at one price and free of commission.

    Should the IMF decide to sell gold, it is a bullish, not bearish event. Only the announcement of such an event could impact the not knowledgeable and even that would only last for a very short time. This is true for all the above reasons and because the cash market for gold has overtaken the paper gold market.”

  356. Makia February 1, 2007 9:04 am

    abitconfused, gold is considered the safe haven. If it isn’t, then there are much bigger problems.

    you are right to be confused as to how the whole thing works. suffice to say

    1) the facts are obscured and hidden to as to hide the true intentions and the true effects

    2) the effect is basically that those that the powerful bankers and those “lucky” enough to associate with them had such-and-such greater proportion of wealth than the average person 90 years ago now have thousands of times that leverage - without anyone noticing the drastic change! DRASTIC!

    Yet no one has noticed the “enslavement”

    I mean, c’mon, the system can be likened to servitude in so many ways - i don’t care how much of a “free market capitalist” you strive to be

    Besides that, the hypocrisy STINKS. I mean, all these “free market capitalists” are really anything but. They don’t want a free market for its advantages, the entities that benefit just want advantages any way they can get ‘em. That is one of the biggest truths that i argue spells some kind of doom for lots of folks - the hypocrisy. Its so much a part of the way WallStreet works, no one even notices. They will rue the day.

    So, confused, we have not gotten through hyperinflation just fine. And your comment about a calm before the storm. . . god its stormy out there, but no one is noticing. I am frustrated that the cataclysim, if inevitable, hasn’t happened. But i’ve been through too much to predict it or worry about it.

    Buy gold, but also think about your life and what it means. If it means to have nice things, then you might be dissappointed. If it means to be self-reliant, or a good provider then a hunting rifle and food and medicine skills are valuable no matter what kind of society we live in. Spend some fiat on those skills and a weapon, and a fuel efficient auto, buy some gold if you can. If the gold thing doesn’t work out, you won’t be disappointed - if it does then this advice is no less important.

    We all love to discuss and have our opinions in here - but smarts is knowing that at the end of the day, you set your priorities and you make your choices. No one will live with them but you, so choose wisely.

    I’ll end with this:

    Working for money is slow. You put in an hour, you get paid for an hour. Becoming wealthy requires an exponent in there. So while “working” for money is linear, speculation (read:investing) is not. That is the “power” of speculation. But the spiritual truth of speculation (with money and anything else), is that you risk loss while you seek gain. The greater the risk is, the greater the reward is. That is how it should be and teaches people to make wise decisions, and live with the consequences of their choices (i.e., their losses as well as their gains). Speculation isn’t for everyone, but its not bad in-and-of-itself, as far as i can tell.

    BUT

    The biggest players in our system are also the ones who make the rules, and they’ve made “no-risk speculation.” In other words, they get to increase their wealth without the constraints of a linear model, and NO RISK! So many problems with this, but how about this

    If those few thousand people keep making money times money times money (compunding interest) on investment vehichles that aren’t tied to anything finite, then the only way to keep giving these people money is to keep printing it out, but there is nothing real being created along with this money.

    They defend these crazy systems and say “well, we’re protecting retirement savings so that people don’t have to work after they’re 65, and protecting them from inflation since prices will go up and they will need to pay for everything out of their savings since they don’t work.”

    But meanwhile, they’ve set us on a path to destroy everything that we know as normal (it was never “normal” or “healthy”, but its what were used to and most people have no idea of the details). To wit, of inflation budges just a percentage point above a certain level for a couple years, all of a sudden hundreds of thousands of people (probably millions around the world actually) have to work for a couple more years. So what we have taken for granted as normal is not there. Problems is, they have created the inflation to begin with. Its how they make money. No greedy banks, no inflation. A dollar today buys the same thing as it does in 30 years. No need to worry about propping anything up. If you want to multiply your money, you speculate and accept the risks. If you want to retire when you’re 65, you live within your means and save.

    But that’s not the way it works. And the stealing is so subtle and hidden so as to be actually considered a BENEFIT TO THE WHOLE SYSTEM! But when “they” keep being greedy, it affects more and more people, starting at the bottom of the economic chain. Look at the poor in the world, study their countries and the IMF and the World Bank and how the poor have been “helped” into civilized society by these magnanimous banking elite. No, they’ve been raping the third world and making tons of money, making the Western stock markets look good, so the Westerners easily beleive “oh yeah, the poor are poor ’cause they have corrupt goverments and we are rich because we are smart and egalitarian.” And if you work hard, you can be anything you want to be.

    nuff for now, GTG. hope this helps, abitconfused

    p.s., you tell me i should capitalize “I”nternet again and i’m gonna yell at you

  357. A Bit Confused February 1, 2007 9:06 am

    “If you go carrying pictures of Chairman Mao, you ain’t gonna make it with anyone anyhow. Don’t you know it’s gonna be, alright?” - The Beatles

    “Dreaming is free.” - Blondie

  358. zephyr February 1, 2007 9:07 am

    A bit confused, everything was really good in 1929 too. What can I say? The people in govt and the banks and the Fed are exactly that, just people. Not Gods, not some faceless entity that is there for your protection and service. We have handed the car keys to people. Almost all of them rich and born rich, so they feel entitled. Of course, as history is a mighty good guide, their first priority is themselves. PERIOD! Some people have good intentions but they are few and alot of them end up dead.

    Put it at a personal level. You live in a house and print money. Then you give it to all your neighbors who give you food, clothes, TVs, cars, etc in return. You don’t do anything except print money and live the good life. That’s the US. You promise everybody in the family that you’ll take care of them with the money you print and the credit card bills you run up. That’s social security and medicaid/medicare. How long do you think that will last?

    Put another way. We’re broke. No nation has ever been in as much debt as the US…..ever. And we have things called derivatives and hedge funds which are basically high stakes gambling. Do you know what whales are? Not the ocean kind. Whales are people that gamble unbelievable amounts of money. When they show up at Vegas, they get whatever they want…penthouse rooms, etc. There are only about 200 in the world. That’s the US in the stockmarket. PS..The house always ends up winning. No matter how much you hear from your friends and family and co-workers about how much they win….look around at the casinos you see….they didn’t get that opulent by losing.

    People are in massive debt. People are living off their credit cards. Their houses are tapped…no more ATM in the closet. Businesses are in massive debt. Pensions are underfunded because they went gambling with the money. Ford and GM are almost toast. The govt is broke. We need an infusion of about $2 billion a day just to stay even. See my previous post. Many believe we’re buying our debt with…….right, the only advantage the Fed have is they print the money. But that only goes so far as the money starts to become worthless. Been to a grocery store recently? How much do you walk out with for 50 bucks. Not too much. Wages kept pace? Mmmmm..no. Dollar has lost ALOT of itself over the past few years

    And the spending is growing exponentially. Wars/empires are expensive propositions. It’s like when you’re on vacation and you try to stick to a budget. At first you do pretty well. But the last couple of days you lose your mind. The last day is usually the worst because, well, fuck it, the budget is blown anyway…might as well have fun.

    You’re right….everything looks fine. But cancer can sit in a person for along time going undetected. But once you have symptoms start to show it’s usually too late, and the end comes fast. I’ve seen it happen. Do you think I want to see it happen to the country? Does anybody? I think that’s why nothing has happened yet. The bigwigs are doing all they can to prolong it because everyone around the world will get hurt. And the masses are going to be really, really upset when they realize they’ve been duped…..as they’re starving, because the commerce machine has stopped moving.

    No, nobody want the party to stop. But the party has left such a mess. There are too many oily rags laying around. And the bastard that owns the funhouse smokes like a fiend. Eventually, a spark’s going to ignite somewhere. And like I said, there are too many fuckin’ oily rags all over the goddamned house. And it hasn’t rained in months.

    The world is a tinderbox. Especially the US. So, A Bit Confused, might as well enjoy yourself because when the spark finally hits…………..BOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!!

  359. zephyr February 1, 2007 9:15 am

    And what’s this with capitalizing the “i” in internet. What are you, a schoolteacher? Should I call you MR. A Bit Confused?

  360. A Bit Confused February 1, 2007 9:22 am

    So gold and guns? What the hell am I going to hunt in San Diego California? Lizards? Besides I’m a vegetarian. I’m a capitalist for sure, but, most of all a pacifist.

    I dunno, man, I’m not saying you’re wrong. I’m just saying the more I try to learn about the economy the more confused I get. Maybe that is just the nature of it.

    So basically the only way the system sustians itself is by printing more and more money, and, your point is that this is deflationary?

    I’m not here to argue with you … as a lay person, and an newbie to a lot of these concepts, I am a bit confused.

  361. A Bit Confused February 1, 2007 9:26 am

    Nope Zephyr, I am actually, officially a student. But, you can call me “sir.”

  362. Makia February 1, 2007 9:31 am

    okay abit, now that i know a little more about you. . . gimme a sec

  363. Makia February 1, 2007 9:48 am

    abitconfused, my point is that you can try and understand the stuff as much as you want, but you still won’t be able to predict the future.

    You won’t even be able to use models to give you probabilities. This stuff is not science, it is corruption. And it is meant to have a look of legitimacy. By “it” i mean the powers that make the rules that everyone else has to play by. Why should “they” be the one’s that make the rules? And why would they put “free market operations” on such a rhetorical pedestool but in practice undermine it as much as possible? Only one reason: to STEAL FROM US!!!

    I am not a conspiracy nut, and i’m not the type of person to put the blame soley on the “haves”. Most of the average folks have dropped their responsibilities, too. It has been a self-enforcing cycle of us giving a little, and them taking a little. Literally minute after minute. So slowly that few people realize it, but the numbers don’t lie and we as a society are much worse off than we were 50 years ago in many of the regards that “they” say they’ve been working hard to “improve” our lot. Its a big sham. A big, big, sad sham.

    So that’s why i say don’t worry about gold or money. There really are more important things in life. Money and gold play a part, and should be respected; but don’t think that the powers that be respect money, or us for that matter.

    If you are a vegetarian, then a gun is still a good investment. They exist and the bad guys have ‘em. Don’t rely on someone else to protect you. Don’t rely on the bankers to protect your retirement. Thats what they _say_ they’re doing but thats NOT WHAT THEY’RE DOING. You see what i’m saying?

    You said, “i’m not saying you’re wrong.” Well i’m not saying i’m right. You gotta make your choices and you gotta live with ‘em. My biggest peice of advice is always the same: whether you have money or not, find worthwhile things that make you happy that don’t depend on having lots of money. Then just enjoy the ride! You can spend time making money, buying gold, selling gold, buying stocks, selling stocks. Good luck! And if you loose then don’t forget the things i said. Not so that you think i’m right but so that you can have peace inside you and live a healthy life, wealth or no wealth.

    peas

  364. zephyr February 1, 2007 10:08 am

    No, the system sustains itself by constantly moving, or in our case being capitalists, we have to buy shit constantly. That’s why are hero George Dubya told us to go shopping after 9/11. Of all the potentially memorable and inspiring things he could have said, he basically told us not to get too bothered and to go shopping. That would show those blasted terrorists. After all, they hate us for our freedom, our way of life.

    Why, you may ask? Again, because our whole economy is based on growth, on buying, doesn’t matter what, just make a damned purchase. We’re brainwashed on this. Commercials everywhere, Ads everywhere, celebrities shoved down our throats showing us what we don’t have, other celebrities (talk show hosts) telling us we deserve to have x, y and z. Problem is most people can’t afford x, y and z. Not enough cash? No problem. Enter the credit card. Once something you really had to qualify for, now all you have to have is a pulse to qualify for credit. Oh, and mortgages. That’s a whole other story for another post.

    But the govt/business/consumer saga took a twist. After sucking people in, those same people would find themselves fucked….Ah Ha! Being as degenerate as those leading them, the people took it to the next level by exclaiming, “I’m an American…I’m entitled, I don’t HAVE to pay, remember you keep selling me this, so they declared they indeed, didn’t have to pay because of the corner they were “forced” into. Ah, yes, bankruptcy. But business was displeased. They told govt that is not good. So bankruptcy became harder to declare. Best to have people indebted for life. And, people being stupid, continued to say, that’s OK, I am still king of my world!! I must have the best of everything. So Greenspan said, “Let there be bubbles. Let there be liquidity for everyone. And as an added bonus, we’ll throw in a noose since you’ll be needing it anyway,”

    So here we are, a brief history OF US consumerism. Now, Confused, print this forum out and bring it to class and tell your professor to kiss your ass, that you already know much more than he could ever teach you. And Confused, you can call me “your Honor” or “Your Holiness”. See, I’m a fair man, I’ll give you a choice. Now be on your way….spend, spend, SPEND!!!

  365. zephyr February 1, 2007 10:18 am

    Oh, lastly, lizard is not so bad after all. And on a serious note, being a pacifist is good. Glad to have you with us, you have already showed you are smarter that your classmates.

    And where did Dr Jane go? Geez, I give her the most heartfelt advice and she decides instead to go have a pint with some kidney pudding (*shudder*). What have I done?

  366. zephyr February 1, 2007 10:20 am

    You know, Makia, between the 2 of us, we’ve probablty ruined this young man (or woman?) for life.

  367. Makia February 1, 2007 10:29 am

    We can only hope Zeph, we can only hope.

    Zeph, it’ll be nice to hear your voice soon.

    And Janie’s fine, i’ve got her on the private line. She must have more important things to do than banter with us :-(.

    Abitconfused, you won’t get any quick answers many places in the world, including here; but its a pretty decent place to hang out.

    Cheers

  368. zephyr February 1, 2007 10:41 am

    Hey, Holy Shmokes, we need a new topic. I mean, we’re at 366 in posts now and it seem’s like it’s pretty much down to me and Makia. We’re going to have to have some sort of dual to see who the ultimate poster is. I don’t want it to come to that. I have too much to live for. And I don’t want to widow and orphan Makia’s family. And the sight of blood makes me….makes me….well, it makes me think of a nice juicy porterhouse steak (sorry, bit confused).

    Please kind sir, another forum please…sniff, sniff….

  369. Makia February 1, 2007 10:46 am

    LOL!!!

    STOP IT!!!

  370. Makia February 1, 2007 10:48 am

    PS zeph, if you look at the number of posts in this thread, i’d bet $20 that i’m the ultimate poster. If you look at intellectual value, well, i can’t hold a candle to your bright light of illuminating luminosity.

  371. zephyr February 1, 2007 11:11 am

    Illuminating luminosity….I like that. Still, no one waxes philosophical like you. No, you are like a scholar of old in flowing white robes reading from a scroll in perfect accented tones. I’m more like a guy wearing a leather jacket reading from some notes torn from one of those spiral notepads, and then threatening to punch people in the balls if they didn’t listen to what I had to say. Then we would all sit down to a buffet of sushi, falafel, pierogi, lasagna, chicken wings and gelato….mainly because I like variety.

    Yeah, I guess you would win because you do alot of 2 or 3 word posts. Plus there were those repitition and woodchuck posts. Maybe I have the flowing robes thing partially wrong. Maybe that’s only half the time. The other half you would be in a strait jacket mumbling about, what else, woodchucks and other small furry creatures. And Gordo would be your interpreter. And if people disagreed, Gordo would fling monkey poop at everyone.

    My God, I’m insane!

  372. kia February 1, 2007 11:15 am

    You two look bored, so without further adeiu:
    THE ABILITY TO MAKE AND UNDERSTAND PUNS IS THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF LANGUAGE
    DEVELOPMENT.
    Here are the ten first place winners in the International Pun Contest:

    1. A vulture boards an airplane, carrying two dead raccoons. The stewardess looks at him and says, “I’m sorry, sir, only one carrion
    allowed per passenger.”

    2. Two fish swim into a concrete wall. One turns to the other and says “Dam!”

    3. Two Eskimos sitting in a kayak were chilly, so they lit a fire in the craft. Unsurprisingly it sank, proving once again that you can’t
    have your kayak and heat it too.

    4. Two hydrogen atoms meet. One says “I’ve lost my electron.” The other says “Are you sure?” The first replies “Yes, I’m positive.”

    5. Did you hear about the Buddhist who refused Novocain during a root canal? His goal: transcend dental medication.

    6. A group of chess enthusiasts checked into a hotel and were standing in the lobby discussing their recent tournament victories. After about
    an hour, the manager came out of the office and asked them to disperse.

    “But why?”, they asked, as they moved off.

    “Because,” he said,” I can’t stand chess-nuts boasting in an open
    foyer.”

    7. A woman has twins and gives them up for adoption.

    One of them goes to a family in Egypt and is named “Ahmal.” The other goes to a family in Spain; they name him “Juan. ” Years later, Juan
    sends a picture of himself to his birth mother. Upon receiving the picture, she tells her husband that she wishes she also had a picture of Ahmal. Her husband responds, “They’re twins! If you’ve seen Juan, you’ve seen Ahmal.”

    8. A group of friars were behind on their belfry payments, so they opened up a small florist shop to raise funds. Since everyone liked to buy flowers from the men of God, a rival florist across town thought the
    competition was unfair. He asked the good fathers to close down, but they would not. He went back and begged the friars to close. They
    ignored him. So, the rival florist hired Hugh MacTaggart, the roughest and most vicious thug in town to “persuade” them to close.

    Hugh beat up the friars and trashed their store, saying he’d be back if they didn’t close up shop.

    Terrified, they did so, thereby proving that only Hugh can prevent florist friars.

    9. Mahatma Gandhi, as you know, walked barefoot most of the time, which produced an impressive set of calluses on his feet. He also ate very
    little, which made him rather frail and, with his odd diet, he suffered from bad breath. This made him (Oh, man, this is so bad, it’s good) a
    super calloused fragile mystic hexed by halitosis.

    10. And finally, there was the person who sent ten different puns to friends, with the hope that at least one of the puns would make them
    laugh. No pun in ten did.

  373. Makia February 1, 2007 11:22 am

    STOP!!! STOP!!!

    OH MY GOD! SOOOOO FUNNY!!!

    What a great day for laughing. . .

  374. zephyr February 1, 2007 11:28 am

    Very good Kia, and more than one made me laugh. And yes, it is a good day to be lighthearted. Once again, I am grateful for my new found friends.

  375. ostrich February 1, 2007 11:47 am

    Kia thanks for the laugh. I think it was Makia that wants to buy some beer if you new where people lived believe it or not I live on INDEPENDENCE DR.
    Love the banter

  376. kia February 1, 2007 11:52 am

    laughter and thankfulness,

    Works for Me!

  377. Makia February 1, 2007 11:54 am

    ostrich, my address, no joke, is 123 Forth Avenue

  378. Makia February 1, 2007 11:54 am

    fourth ave, not forth

  379. muleskinner February 1, 2007 12:26 pm

    A share of Berkshire Hathaway could have been bought in 1988 for about 6800 dollars. Today, the price is 110,200 dollars.

    Only 1.2 million shares outstanding, it has never split.

    Is it hyper-inflated, or is your dollar worth some fourteen times less? Has Berkshire gained that much more value?

    You’re going to have to throw a lot more dollars Warren Buffet’s way to have a share of BRKA to have one share of it.

    I believe in censorship. I made a fortune out of it. ~Mae West

  380. Gordo February 1, 2007 12:39 pm

    Just one more perspective:
    http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=417

    No Deflation! Disinflation then Lots of Inflation

    The “Ka” phase of “Ka-Poom” has officially begun

    by Eric Janszen

    There will be no deflation. I repeat: there will be no self reinforcing spiral of debt defaults, an irreversible collapse in the money supply and a decline in the general price level. Central banks will never again allow short term interest rates to fall below the rate of inflation, nor fail to supply sufficient liquidity to meet the demands of financial markets. There will be no repeat of a 1930s US depression or the grinding 1990s Japanese deflationary recession. Instead, we will experience something new, with elements of deflations, and inflations and stagflations past – rhymes of past verses of economic misfortune – but unlike any of these past episodes except equally unpleasant. I call this new process “Ka-Poom Theory.”

    In 1999, in anticipation of the collapse of the stock market bubble, the Fed under Alan Greenspan vowed to never allow a deflation to happen in his back yard, and he kept his word. As a side effect, we got real estate and other asset bubbles, and soaring commodity prices. Bernanke has made numerous similar promises, and I strongly recommend that readers take him at his word. He made these promises because he expects these new asset bubbles to collapse, too. His famous speech about dropping money from helicopters earned him the nick name “helicopter Ben.” He’s not kidding.

    The trick to avoiding deflation is to not be too slow on the draw. Once the rate of inflation falls below short term rates, as happened to the BoJ in Japan in 1992, the economy is an airplane flying with no forward air speed. The flaps flap uselessly in the stillness and quiet of a stall. The pilot of the economy, we’ll call him Ben, needs to quickly drop the nose and head for the ground and pick up airspeed, although he’d better not be too close to the ground before pulling the maneuver. Ben is now flying a relatively comfortable 4.25 thousand feet in the air. But as we’ll see, he has other problems that previous pilots didn’t have.

  381. Makia February 1, 2007 12:56 pm

    Gordo, u da man.

  382. A Bit Confused February 1, 2007 1:04 pm

    I wish I didn’t have to worry about money. I keep it simple especially for So Cal, but, there is rent, insurance, communications, gas and dog food.

    I see what you mean, there is no predictability. From what I read of Mises that is one of his arguments that business people can’t plan with no yardstick of value, so we get these crashes under the fiat currency.

    I get the impressino that if rates rise it will save the dollar but, bust up housing, is that a fair assesment? Housing here is still astronomical. I live across the street from a house for sale, 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bath, little ranch house, needs paint, landscaping, built in the late 50’s for General Dynamics workers. Price tag? 500, 000!! A half a million!

    I got kicked out of a place because they made them into condos. I drove by today and there is a sign that says, “now leasing.” A big change from “For Sale.”

  383. beau February 1, 2007 1:22 pm

    Okay folks,for a blunt,concise,ptb…. in your f$#@ing face essay on gold,currencies and Von Mise’s so-called “race to the bottom” check out the latest from Jim Willie on 321GOLD.COM. Jim is an original thinker.

    Beau-out

  384. A Bit Confused February 1, 2007 1:34 pm

    So, if Ben won’t let deflation happen then what? Higher rates, stronger dollar, or does money flow into bonds and drive rates lower?

    The headline today, high prices for materials shutting down a big construction project. I’ve read the same about some oil exploration, stuff, building the stuff to drill it is too expensive. Is that not stagflation?

  385. Makia February 1, 2007 1:36 pm

    Yeah confused. You got it.

    That’s my take, also. They can the raise the rates, they can lower ‘em, but as long as they’re playing whack-a-mole, there will eventually be more moles than they can hit. Difference? Those plastic moles don’t have to live in our system, plus they have other advantages such as no need for food, they are attached to their shelter, and they have very little consiousness to debate the issues of our world.

    The economy tailspins and people who own their house can’t pay their taxes, so the bank gets it anyway for pennies. So why not max out the equity and enjoy the shit out of life. . . ya got it pay it back soon, that’s a good reason why not. But what’s more important, this glorified, holified economy that rises the tide of all boats (which doesn’t do that actually), or that people have shelter when they need it and banks don’t have lots of empty houses while people are in the cold? Well, its not very cold in SoCal, but you get the picture.

    The public has been sold a bill of goods for at least a hundred years, and the salesmen have always been touting the “great benefits” of their snake-oil. At first, many people didn’t buy it. Today, the powers-that-be call those early cynics “primitive.” Of course they would. A great campaign of stupidization was launched on us to help their agenda, and it worked. Slowly, but surely. That’s what they want. Fast enough that _they_ know its working, but slow enough that we don’t notice. I NOTICE!!!

    But consider: this goes beyond economics and beyond politics, and beyond the last couple decades of U.S. policy, foriegn and domestic. This is history we’re living, and i only pray that history judges the fucks who did this to society very harshly. And even more than that i hope our progeny ACTUALLY LEARN WHAT HAPPENED!

    If my cynicism serves me, people are just going to keep blaming others instead of taking responsibility for ourselves. People are going to stay primitive and want to be coddled and provided for by big-brother because they think its safe. Failing, again and again, to learn the lessons of life, and history.

    There’s only one thing left to do. . .

  386. A Bit Confused February 1, 2007 1:56 pm

    Doesn’t oil have to be more expensive if we have to sink so much into it just to get it? Right now we are still feasting off of stuff that’s been paid for years ago, basically, correct?

    I live in So. Cal. Do you know how many cars and people there are here? People will die in an oil crisis. I mean, we need freeways. Can you imagine what a fucking mess that would be? I think we need nuclear power, and, electric vehicles. I don’t see a better solution. Who are we trying to kid? I think that is a reasonable, doable solution.

    In 2005 I said if I had money I would be:

    long bonds
    short dollar
    long uranium
    short stocks
    long oil
    long gold

    I didn’t really have any money though, but, if I did. Stick to my guns?

  387. aroha February 1, 2007 1:58 pm

    Hi everyone; you’re a fascinating bunch of posters and since the topic has run off the rails just a little, I thought I’d throw this in for consideration.

    “Near the day of the Great Purification, there will be cobwebs spun back and forth in the sky.” Hopi prophecy

    I live in New Zealand and have never seen a chemtrail here although they are widely reported. I was on a deserted beach up North a couple of months ago with four other people when we noticed thousands of horizontal floating spider-like web strands, some as long as 20 meters drifting on the wind overhead, some falling on the beach, one landed on someone’s shoulder! I have a hunch they are connected to chemtrails. In London last year the chemtrails were unrelenting. My own theory is that chemtrails are a major contributor to global warming. Don’t know whether you’ve looked into Haarp technology but I have read that the chemtrail project involves ‘over the horizon’ radar applications. I do believe that chemtrails exist and that they have been spraying 24/7 since 1998. It’s hard to refute the evidence when you do the research.
    Mass spraying of the populace, with what else besides the Aluminum we already know about. http://www.lightwatcher.com/chemtrails/hos.html
    Very interesting announcement this week,
    US URGES SCIENTISTS TO BLOCK OUT SUN THE US wants the world’s scientists to develop technology to block sunlight as a last-ditch way to halt global warming. It says research into techniques such as giant mirrors in space or REFLECTIVE DUST pumped into the atmosphere would be “important insurance” against rising emissions, and has lobbied for such a strategy to be recommended by a UN report on climate change, the first part of which is due out on Friday).

  388. Gordo February 1, 2007 2:10 pm

    “I Googled you and was not able to identify the mystery of the universe in anything that came up there”

    You obviously aren’t paying attention. Taxpayers’ money may have trained the good doctor, but taxpayers will ONLY find her results (i.e. the secrets of the universe revealed) IF they work for one of the mysterious “organisations who are listening in here”. I did a little research myself, and I have found that you can identify the members of said organisations quite easily, they generally look like this or this.

    You would NOT want too many people to get their hands on this information! It would disrupt the very fabric of space and time, and you all know where that leads! Pretty much just like when Locke stopped pushing the button.

  389. Gordo February 1, 2007 2:24 pm

    A lot of people don’t realize what is really going on. They view life as a bunch of unconnected incidents and things. They don’t realize there’s a lattice of coincidence that lays on top of everything.

    Give you an example: Suppose you’re thinking about a plate of shrimp. Suddenly someone will say, “Plate” or “Shrimp” or “Plate of shrimp”, out of the blue. No explanation and there’s no point in looking for one either. It’s all part of the cosmic unconsciousness.

    You know the way everybody is into weirdness right now? Books in all the supermarkets about the Bermuda Triangle, UFO’s, how the Mayans invented television, that kind of thing. Well the way I see it it’s exactly the same. There aint no difference between a flying saucer or a time machine.

    People get so hung up on specifics, they miss out on seeing the whole thing. Take South America for example. Every year in South America thousands of people turn up missing. Nobody knows where they go. They just disappear. But if you think for a minute, realize something, there had to be a time when there was no people right? Well where did all these people come from? I’ll tell you where, the future. Where did all these people disappear to, the past. How did they get there? Flying saucers, which are really, yeah you got it, time machines.

    I think a lot about this kind of stuff. I do my best thinking on the bus. That’s how come I don’t drive. See I don’t want to know how. I don’t want to learn. The more you drive, the less intelligent you are.

  390. muleskinner February 1, 2007 3:04 pm

    I bottled beer about a month ago. I inflated the supply. Then, I deflated the supply. Today, I inflated the supply again. New beer ready to drink in about two weeks.

    I’ll deflate it again.

    I paid nine bucks for a six pack of Sam Adams. As far as I am concerned, Sam Adams supply of beer can stay inflated. I won’t buy it again.

    Reserve

  391. kia February 1, 2007 3:06 pm

    repoman’s always intense

  392. kia February 1, 2007 3:10 pm

    mulie,

    stay away from industrial swill, drink the profits of your endeavors

    beer is proof the god loves us and wants up to be happy -Benjamin Franklin

    chin chin

  393. kia February 1, 2007 3:54 pm

    Here’s the nicest idea I’ve seen in seven years;-)

    ” Around the world, as a second carrier group moves toward the Persian Gulf, and White House threats against Iran are repeated on a daily basis, it is recognized that the only certain path to stopping the planned attack on Iran is the impeachment of Dick Cheney, who today, just as in the case of the Iraq War, is running the “team” and the policy for “regime change” in Iran:” Michele Steinberg / Executive Intelligence Review

    Make no mistake about it ~ Lewis Libby took the fall for Cheney in the plamegate indictments. But the greatest crime of this administration is their crime against peace ~ for which they have yet to be indicted.

    Let’s go back in time.

    Libby and his mentor Paul Wolfowitz laid out the case for the illegal invasion of Iraq just one week after the Twin Towers fell in 2001 ~ and both reported to Dick Cheney.

    Guy Dinsmore, Financial Times UK, profiled Libby and writes;

    ” Together with the vice-president, Mr. Libby launched the push to invade Iraq …. And, together with Cheney, Libby has “worked hard to block signs of engagement with Iran, resist direct talks with North Korea, and undermine U.S. legislation prohibiting torture and degrading treatment of detainees.”

    As such, Libby was Cheney’s disciple and hit man and was obviously chosen to out Valerie Plame by Darth Vader himself ~ Dick Cheney.

    Expect a Bush pardon and eventually a medal if Libby is found guilty. Loyalty to the chief outweighs everything in this den of thieves.

    However, the last thing Cheney wants is now happening ~ Fitzgerald digging deeper into Cheney’s secret government and other more flagrant crimes against peace.

    Fitzgeralds’s ominous last words at his press conference a year ago” It’s not over ~ we may be closer to the beginning than the end ” should strike fear in Cheney’s heart ( if he has one ) ~ for Fitzgerald’s method is to usually go for the aides before he tackles the leaders.

    And that is precisely my point ~ Dick Cheney is being rightfully targeted for impeachment and Michelle Steinberg, Executive Intelligence Review, calls it a ‘ perfect storm .’

    Allen L Roland http://blogs.salon.com/0002255/2007/01/31.html

    A ‘PERFECT STORM’ IS RISING TO OUST DICK CHENEY
    by Michele Steinberg

    This article appears in the February 2, 2007 issue of Executive Intelligence Review
    1-30-7

    http://www.rense.com/general75/perft.htm

    With the combination of the most somber and serious Congressional hearings since Watergate, and the opening of the trial of Vice President Dick Cheney’s former Chief of Staff and National Security Advisor, I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby, for perjury and obstruction of justice, there is a “window of opportunity” for impeachment of the Vice President-and Cheney is jumping right through it.

    On Jan. 24, one day after Cheney was exposed by Special Prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald, as directing the campaign to discredit a credible, eyewitness critic, former Ambassador Joe Wilson, by exposing the identity of his wife, Valerie Plame Wilson, who worked as a covert agent of the CIA, Cheney went on national television to announce that the White House will ignore any resolution from Congress that criticizes the escalation of force in Iraq.

    In an interview with CNN’s Wolf Blitzer, when asked about the Senate resolution against the “surge,” which had just been passed by the Foreign Relations Committee, Cheney boasted, “That won’t stop us . . . we are moving forward . . . the President has made his decision.”

    In short, Cheney’s own foul mouth, in bragging that the White House will ignore the Senate resolution against Bush’s surge, just hours after the Senate committee passed the bipartisan Biden-Hagel-Levin measure, creates the “perfect storm” that could finally sweep Cheney out of the White House.

    The exposure of Cheney’s role in the Scooter Libby case, and his outrageous dismissal of the constitutional role of the Congress, affords the Bush family-which enlisted Cheney to craft George W. Bush’s Presidential run in 2000-an opportunity now to take action to get him out.

    This is not a matter of partisan, or revenge politics, but a matter of the national interest. Around the world, as a second carrier group move towards the Persian Gulf, and White House threats against Iran are repeated on a daily basis, it is recognized that the only certain path to stopping the planned attack on Iran is the impeachment of Dick Cheney, who today, just as in the case of the Iraq War, is running the “team” and the policy for “regime change” in Iran.

    Now Is the Time

    Pundits-especially those favorable to Cheney’s chickenhawk policies-have said that impeachment is unlikely because the Vice President is a “constitutionally elected official” who can only be removed under charges of criminality, or by voluntarily resigning.

    But, with the opening statement by Special Counsel Fitzgerald in the Libby trial, on Jan. 23, in which he alleged that Cheney issued a hand-written memo to Libby on discrediting Wilson, the situation changed. Not only did Fitzgerald disclose the existence of the memo, but he charged that Libby had “wiped out” that incriminating piece of evidence.

    However, reportedly through the combination of computer memory recovery methods, and the testimony of witnesses who also knew about Cheney’s memo, Fitzgerald was able to introduce the matter in his opening remarks.

    Now, to all those who say “impeachment is off the table,” one must ask-what would the trial of Richard Nixon’s aides Haldeman, Ehrlichman, et al., have looked like, if a hand-written note from Nixon, directing them to break into the offices of Democratic National Committee in the Watergate Hotel, had been disclosed?

    Washington insiders report that the Bush family may be the critical factor in getting rid of Cheney, a scenario which is being mooted in the media.

    On Jan. 25, Keith Olbermann, the host of the popular “Countdown” show on MSNBC, did a five-minute spot called, “Should Cheney Go?” He pointed to longtime Bush family operative, James Baker III, as the person who tried-and failed-to save G.W. Bush from the Cheney disaster.

    Olbermann opened his show saying, “Piece by piece testimony at the Scooter Libby trial is dismantling the already tattered reputation of the nation’s Vice President, portraying him as consumed with retaliating against a serious credible critic of his attempts to sell the war. . . .”

    Later in the program, Olbermann said, “Another friend of this show, Craig Crawford, reported today that Jim Baker not only led the Iraq Study Group, he was also leading a kind of a private attempt to wrench the President away from Mr. Cheney’s influence and ideology, and ultimately failed in that, judging from what the President is trying to do in Iraq now, in light of the Baker Commission. . . .”

    The phrase being increasingly heard in the halls of Congress and around Washington is, “the time is now.” It is being used in the appeals from Republicans to the Bush family to save the Party and the Bush legacy-by getting Cheney out.

    And, it has been heard in open Congressional hearings, such as the Senate Foreign Relations Committee vote of Jan. 24 on the Biden-Hagel-Levin resolution that condemned Bush’s “surge” in Iraq. Senators said “now is the time” that Congress must take decisive action, such as capping the number of troops in Iraq, or cutting off the funds for the war, using the “power of the purse.”

    Impeach Cheney Now

    According to a well-informed Washington intelligence source, the major question after day one of the Libby trial was, “Why was the Vice President not indicted along with Libby?” Fitzgerald apparently did not want to influence the outcome of the 2006 election by issuing an indictment before the vote-but, there is no obstacle now. And, a massive outpouring from the voters could actually bring it about.

    In three days of trial, evidence has been introduced that it was Cheney who was obsessed with discrediting Wilson, and it was Cheney who personally directed the anti-Wilson campaign, which included the “outing” of Plame (who was, ironically, trying to track down weapons of mass destruction in Iran!).

    Even Voice of America, a news service wholly owned by the U.S. government, pointed to Cheney. On Jan. 26, an unusual article, signed only as “By VOA News,” said the following:

    “A former spokeswoman to Vice President Dick Cheney says she informed Cheney and his former chief-of-staff, Lewis ‘Scooter’ Libby, about the identity of a CIA operative married to a Bush administration critic.”

    “[Cathie] Martin testified that she informed Cheney and Libby of Plame’s identity after learning it from a CIA official. She also said Cheney personally directed efforts to discredit Wilson’s allegations.”

    Coming on the heels of Fitzgerald’s disclosure of the Cheney memo, written during a trip to Norfolk, Virginia, which included Cathie Martin, Cheney, and Libby, there is growing pressure to prosecute Cheney.

    Amen

  394. mikeck44 February 1, 2007 6:01 pm

    Kia,
    That would be a good start, before moving on to remove 534 of the 535 elected officials. Then we could start on the black robes and other appointees, then on to the bureaucrats.

    Hey! This could be fun.

  395. Turk February 1, 2007 10:13 pm

    No long lingering deflation, just enough deflation to squeeze out the excesses in housing, if, oil prices remain contained throughout the housing contraction. It is the housing industry contraction that is causing deflationary pressure in everything from the home prices themselves to all materials and resources used during the over build. Oil will eventually rise by a minimum of 2x and it will never come back down to the fifty dollar level when this once again happens. It is oil that is the true macro economic currency. When black gold rises by 2x and beyond, sustained and steady, the world will see true inflation in all goods traded for paper money, the fed will then be totally and truely dead. When oil rises by 4x, sustained, and the minimum wage is still seven bucks, give or take, the end of paper money will happen as people burn it to light their fire places and camp fires. It is the impending shortage and future price of oil that will cause the paper money train to come to a halt.

  396. Kia February 1, 2007 11:15 pm

    mikeck44,

    Sign me up brother! Who are you gonna leave, Ron Paul?

    Turk

    Don’t bogart that joint…

  397. Dr Jane Karlsson February 2, 2007 2:23 am

    zephyr … just seen your posts 274 etc … dunno how I missed them … you wrote all that wonderful funny stuff and I didn’t even see it … THANK YOU

  398. Dr Jane Karlsson February 2, 2007 2:26 am

    Gordo 275, you never thanked me for telling you on the other thread exactly how PEER-REVIEWED meta-analyses have given the wrong answer about cancer drugs.

  399. Dr Jane Karlsson February 2, 2007 3:04 am

    Kia 264, your question about Unified Field Theory is exactly the sort of question I need to be asked. And fortunately, Gordo is here to tell us whether my reply is rubbish or not.

    The structure of the atom is the first part of it, and to understand the rest, you need to see how atoms are put together. This is my problem: it’s time-consuming to study what I said and construct mental images of it. Ostrich did this, and ostrich, I will never forget what you did for me that day.

    You see, the reason there is no Unified Field Theory is that people think it ought to be mathematical. They try to make all the equations fit together into some magical number which will describe the universe. But what use would that be except to mathematicians? Why shouldn’t the structure of atoms, electromagnetic fields and gravity be amenable to pictorial representation like everything else is? You can’t describe biology with a magic number, and who would want to?

    Over this weekend I will try to put together a very brief description of the structure of the atom, magnetic fields and gravity.

  400. mikeck44 February 2, 2007 6:48 am

    Kia,
    Sure, Dr. Paul would survive my cut. Maybe I was a bit harsh on the newcomers, but based upon recent history I kinda doubt they deserve better treatment.

  401. Gordo February 2, 2007 7:07 am

    Jane, I’m going to have to prevent you from posting those details as I have for the last 20 years. You should know better by now. The organisations monitoring this webpage would not be happy if that information got into the hands of the general populace.

    [Telepath Auto Suppress -> ON]

  402. kia February 2, 2007 8:43 am

    Dear All,

    Here’s the initial findings from the IPCC, present in Paris today:

    http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/1136843
    http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci-warming2feb02,0,7334392.story?track=tottext

    The data indicates that warming and sea level rises observed are outstripping the model predictions.

    Peace

  403. mikeck44 February 2, 2007 9:39 am

    Somewhere in the above 400 posts someone asked about evidence of gold price suppression /manipulation, er excuse me, management. This interview of GATA co-founder Chris Powell by Doug Hornig with introductions by James Turk and Doug Casey fills the bill. Chris mentions statements /actions by various officials /banks/etc. which reveal the truth of the matter.

    http://goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php

  404. kia February 2, 2007 9:56 am

    Here is a .pdf of the 21 page summary report from the IPCC:

    http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf

    This report was developed by over 300 scientists from over 130 countries.

    In other notes the Guardian reports that the American Enterprise Institute, financially backed by Exxon has offered $10,000 USD to any scientists who will write reports countering the findings in the IPCC report.

    Peace

  405. muleskinner February 2, 2007 1:56 pm

    Jane, my wif is going crazy over the coconut oil. She has two bottles coming soon. Thanks

  406. jtgelt February 2, 2007 7:12 pm

    I looked at links back to “Mish’s” arguments. I never discount deflation as a possibility but Mish picks a few positions that are bogus.

    He claims that the Japanese situation is similar to ours because of the aging population we both share. First the Japanese aging population had savings as they went into old age. Our Boomers may yet figure out how to save, but as this time they have little to no savings. Our Boomers as a group (there are notable exceptions) have no grasp of basic economics. Our Boomers as a group will expect (read demand loudly) that the government bail them out so that they can retire as comfortably as their parents (who saved) did.

    How on earth could money get from the Fed into the economy enough to cause a hyperinflation? One word “Boomer.” They’ll happily be our conduit to destruction. All the while shrilly screaming for more government assistance as prices spiral out of control, all the while finding everybody to blame but themselves.

    Mish makes some comparisons to the U.S. Great Depression deflation and a possible upcoming deflation. Here’s where I am being told an apple and an orange are the same thing. In 1929 the U.S. had a huge industrial base. In 1929 we had a huge savings base. In 1929 we had a gold backed economy in a world of fiat paper. In 1929 the only way to inflate and counter a deflation was via paper. In 1929 the vaults of foreign central banks weren’t stuffed to the brim with dollars.

    It doesn’t count out deflation, but his comparison isn’t valid.

    Mish also states that the Weimar Republic isn’t a valid comparison because the Germans were forced to make reparations at gunpoint. The Chinese have a trillion plus dollars that they could choose to dump onto the world economy and wreck the dollar with at any time. To the Fed that’s as good as an army parked over the Rhine. At some point they will demand an orderly unwinding of the debt we owe them. They will buy commodities and the equities of the few companies we have that are worth something. Hell, maybe we will just give up Taiwan to them? The Chinese have learned from history. The other countries of the world spent their hyper Marks back as fast as the Germans gave them to them, thus getting little out of it, the Chinese have accumulated enough money to make a bargaining chip. Those people who think the Chinese were trapped into our dollar game and are the chumps need to read up on the Chinese, those folks aren’t stupid and they don’t think in any other way than long term. The point is, a good chunk of our inflation has already been printed, it just hasn’t hit the economy yet.

    Can the Fed inflate? Yes. This isn’t 1930. The Fed via the U.S. government can bail out the boomers. The Fed can proxy money via it’s partners to buy whatever they need, equities, real estate and commodities. Inflation only ends when the currency is not convertible. We aren’t even close to that point yet.

    Would they? One has to divine their intentions. The Fed is made up of a list of financial institutions (most of them unknown). These financial institutions own a lot either directly or via debt instruments. Deflation would be in their interest if they planed to create an economic crises and then cut and run. There is a flip side to the personal debts and that is the government debt. If the Fed deflates then our government is forever beholden to foreign interests, because our debt can’t be paid off in current dollars, it will never be paid off in deflated dollars. If they plan to stay alive as rich financiers, they will want a government in their control, not in control of the Chinese and the Japanese.

    Let me make myself clear. I don’t believe the Fed has the ability to change financial outcomes. We as a nation drive up to the various financial cliffs, all the Fed can do is push us off or delay the final fall briefly. Like a bus teetering over the edge and people running to the back of the bus to give everybody a few extra moments of terror before the inevitable.

    What would be the Fed’s motivation to hyper inflate? To pay off the governmental debt, only after they have “secured’ everything that they are interested in. I don’t think this is the way things will go, but it is a possibility. Picture that we start to see the beginnings of decent inflation again. The Volker remedy (which everyone will call for) is a tight money policy. Enough to trigger a nasty recession but not actually trigger an outright deflation, it’s been done before, it could be done again. This new recession will find people already deeply in debt with marginal prospects for jobs. Tight money slows inflation down, but does not cause prices to plunge. You lose your job or take a low paying job, but all your bills stay the same while cost of living stays the same as well. Income levels drop, people begin liquidating equities, precious metals and other things of value. It becomes a buyers market. If you have cash and no debt (like a big financial institution) you start buying up what is for sale. At some point either the big buyers buying the remaining “goodness” of America will rekindle inflation or people screaming for help from the government will cause the Fed to inject liquidity. The financial institutions are now sitting on the equities of most companies, they own a lot of the property with the former owners as renters and they flushed precious metals and other valuable out from under people’s mattresses. Let the inflation roll and pay off the government debt. Who cares about the dollar becoming worthless when you now hold everything of value?

    What to do?

    When you have no idea what is going to happen, you can assume the economy has 4 primary states it can be in: Boom. Inflation. Deflation. Tight money. If you bet equally on all 4 you can achieve, at the minimum, wealth preservation and generally a modest growth.

    However if you can eliminate a state, it allows you to concentrate wealth with increased odds of making more money. I can think we can safely eliminate the possibility of an upcoming “Boom” market.

    Where to put the money?

    Gold: Obviously everyone knows that this is a good inflation hedge. However most people assume it will do poorly in a deflation. Not necessarily. It may lose face value, however, unlike the 30’s the dollar has no gold backing. Gold is not the currency. Gold is now an alternative to dollars should they become in short supply. Likely they’d lose face value, but there’s a reasonable chance their purchasing power would hold up through deflation. What if they confiscate gold again? Just remember, unlike what your government history books said, most people didn’t cough up their gold until they needed to. Worst case, as long as there is food, gold will never become worthless. Buy some physical and hold some overseas. No one threw themselves out a window in 1929 because all they had was some lousy gold.

    U.S. Junk Silver: In an inflation silver will match gold’s performance and often beat it. In a deflation the worst that can happen is that it reverts to it’s face value. At that point a quarter will buy you a lot.

    Canadian Junk Silver: Canada has an economy backed by natural resources. The silver itself is a good inflation hedge. Should the U.S. dollar go south, it’s possible that the Canadian Dollar may stay afloat. Here you have a foreign currency that will be valuable if it stays afloat (and the U.S. Dollar doesn’t) or worst case some nominal precious value should their currency go under. I wouldn’t buy huge amounts, consider it a wildcard investment.

    T-Bills & Bonds: Here’s where I can’t help wonder what Mish is doing for recreational pharmaceuticals. He asks if anyone really believes the U.S. will default on their debt? Just because they haven’t yet, doesn’t make for a sound reason for why they couldn’t. The correct question to ask is, do you really think the government (or Fed) is going to pay $9 trillion dollars out in a manner that is highly beneficial to you? I’d say doubtful. Yes, they might just default. Maybe they’ll play my sucker punch tight money game, where holders will happily cash out at less than face value to have anything to pay bills. Maybe they’ll hyperinflate their problems away. Maybe they’ll keep the system together by letting foreigners redeem their U.S. debt at will and locking down non-institutional domestic holders to some preposterously low redemption each year, you know kind of like what FDR did with gold. I can’t deny that bonds have been doing well lately. You might consider riding the short term bond market. However if we do have a deflationary depression, it won’t be your grandpa’s deflation where the smart money was in bonds. Again, ask yourself, will $9 trillion dollars be paid out in a timely manner to the benefit of the debt holders?

    Cash: In a safe place outside the bank. No kidding, have a pile of it. If there is a true deflation as history has shown it, you’ll be fat dumb and happy. If there is a tight money situation you may be able to pay your bills without having to cash out your valuables, or you may be able seize on opportunities as other people sell. If the road is inflation, no matter how fast the onset, you should be able to covert it into something better before it loses huge amounts of value.

    Foreign currency: With a dollar crises of sort, it’s hard to figure what might be worth holding. I’d say Yen, Pounds, Euros and Pesos are out since all are competitively inflating to help keep the dollar mess hidden. Maybe Swiss Franks? It’s hard to picture a situation where gold, dollars and silver might fail you.

    Equities: With all the crash warnings I’ve heard it’s hard to believe any of them anymore. Deflation would make a hell of a crash. In theory any holdings that survived a deflationary crash should be worth a great deal. Theoretically an inflationary recession should kill a stock market bull, however would fresh cash end up there, albeit losing ground to inflation all the way? It’s time to bet against conventional wisdom. The last 20 years said that a diversified investment in many companies and sectors would make you gains. The next 20 will be for key sectors. Look towards precious metals (not base metals), energy companies, utilities, food producers and for the time being military suppliers. I don’t go heavy here, but there’s still money to be made if you are willing to watch your investments.

    In short figure out how to make your deflation and inflation eggs complimentary. Inflation and deflation aren’t the only possible outcomes. If either or both are outcomes, nothing says that we have a valid historical comparison for what is about to happen. Don’t bet the farm on my financial guess or anybody else’s. Form your opinion from facts, not other people’s opinions.

  407. Dr Jane Karlsson February 3, 2007 2:51 am

    Gordo 401, I am very interested to hear why you posted all that stuff about climate change on this site. Were you trying to communicate with us, or with certain organisations who are listening in here?

    If it was with us, I am sorry to have to tell you that it was rather inaccessible. I am very interested in climate change, and I am by no means convinced that the scientists have got it right.

    I have a suggestion for you: why don’t you write a short essay on it like the one I wrote for you on cancer drugs? Here is my email address in case you would like to try it out on me before exposing it to public scrutiny: janekrlssn@yahoo.co.uk

  408. muleskinner February 3, 2007 5:14 am

    “The Chinese have a trillion plus dollars that they could choose to dump onto the world economy and wreck the dollar with at any time.” - jtgelt

    Over three trillion dollars worth of transactions take place everyday in the currency market and online currency trading is now available to everyone.

    The total amount includes 1.6 trillion US dollars. If the Chinese wanted to dump those trillion dollars in a single day, the increase in currency exchange for one day would be 33 percent.

    It would be a blip in the yearly chart. The dollar would sink some, dollar buyers would immediately rush in to buy to lower valued dollar and make a killing. The Chinese would be out of dollars. The end result: The dollar would reach new highs. The trillion dollars that the Chinese have depresses the value of the dollar and they know it. It helps the value of their currency and they know that too.

    I hope they do dump their dollars, which amounts to eighty cents or so for each Chinese citizen.

    A fool and his money are a soon parting.

  409. Dr Jane Karlsson February 3, 2007 6:17 am

    muleskinner 405, delighted to hear it.

  410. muleskinner February 3, 2007 6:25 am

    I will correct my arithmetic. It would amount to 800 dollars for each Chinese citizen. I was off by a factor of 1000.

  411. Dr Jane Karlsson February 3, 2007 6:27 am

    zephyr, THANK YOU for 304. My email address is janekrlssn@yahoo.co.uk

  412. bp February 3, 2007 8:41 am

    yo just say it - it’s all about timbre - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timbre

  413. kia February 3, 2007 8:48 am

    “Feb. 2 will be remembered as the date when uncertainty was removed as to whether humans had anything to do with climate change on this planet. The evidence is on the table.”
    ACHIM STEINER, executive director of the United Nations Environment Program.

  414. bp February 3, 2007 9:51 am

    man kia, that’s Ground Hog Day - did you see that movie? - how many times we gotta do this over to get it right, hehe

  415. muleskinner February 3, 2007 11:23 am
  416. muleskinner February 3, 2007 11:25 am

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gedqNpd_90g

    Don’t know why it didn’t work.

  417. kia February 3, 2007 11:39 am

    bp (#414),

    I wish I knew brother, sometimes i feel like America’s actions are some terrible 8 track tape that I can’t stop and can’t pry out of the machine.

    Having come to age during Watergate, Vietnam, and the Energy Crisis I have one question for you…What have the Americans learned in 30 years?

    Now in the face of the abject failure of the NeoCon dream of Pipelinestan, they are cranking up for an attack on Iran.

    Wresting control from their hands by any means necessary is the only war forward I can see right now. My personal hope is that the Scooter Libby trial will transmogrify into the Nixon tapes of the 21st century. We stopped a war, and removed a president before. It is time for us to do it again

    And you what are your thoughts? By the way, I always appreciate your posts, I always thought bp meant broken pipeline.

    Peace

  418. kia February 3, 2007 11:41 am

    sorry meant to type “way” forward, war must have been some Freudian slip.

  419. bp February 3, 2007 2:01 pm

    kia#417, hehe - here I was trying to imply bp meant british petro, nah - I’m not so imaginative

    my thoughts huh, get this….I posted a while ago about timbre, so what the heck does that have to do with the price of drugs in the USofA, hehe

    what I’ve seen in the last 30 years is Ground Hog day, but timbre is what is going on for me - I’ve heard this song before, you hear a song enough times by the same players, same instruments, etc. you can begin to recognize it by the first few notes, and more people are beginning to recognize this siren song of destruction that is being played out right now, we heard it before and the more we point at it and bring it to the attention of others the more others will begin to recognize it for what it is — i like muleskinners link to that john Lennon video, heheh

    already the third world is recognizing this song for what it is - look how they are turning away from the IMF and their “loans” and how they are fighting “free trade” - I think Americans may be the last to recognize what is going on….Comfortably Numb - heard that playing today, heheh

    so, this song going on isn’t a 3 minute pop song, maybe it’s a symphony - very orchestrated, very complex, lots of players and instruments…still I can recognize Beethoven’s 9th easy enough when I hear it - hang in there bro’ this is a long haul process, but…hell… what are we here for if not to choose how to live and die.

    I figure the people that can see easiest what is going on are people like Dr Jane, makia, and others here that are into mental imaging and music - harder for people that only use the logical analysis side of their brain - hm, what the heck happens in the brain when you use timbre, hehe - things are definitely getting interesting

    give peace a chance

  420. kia February 3, 2007 4:34 pm

    Tomorrow And Tomorrow
    (Fripp-McDonald-Lake-Giles-Sinfield)

    The wall on which the prophets wrote
    Is cracking at the seams.
    Upon the instruments of death
    The sunlight brightly gleams.
    When every man is torn apart
    With nightmares and with dreams,
    Will no one lay the laurel wreath
    As silence drowns the screams.

    Between the iron gates of fate,
    The seeds of time were sown,
    And watered by the deeds of those
    Who know and who are known;
    Knowledge is a deadly friend
    When no one sets the rules.
    The fate of all mankind I see
    Is in the hands of fools.

    Confusion will be my epitaph.
    As I crawl a cracked and broken path
    If we make it we can all sit back
    and laugh.
    But I fear tomorrow I’ll be crying,
    Yes I fear tomorrow I’ll be crying.

    Give war a chance - P.J. O’Rourke

    bp,

    I gonna work on that timbre thing.

    Peace

  421. bp February 3, 2007 5:30 pm

    ouch, kia - where do you get this stuff?

  422. kia February 3, 2007 9:41 pm

    King Crimson Brother, No One Trucks Like the King

    (Fripp/Sinfield/McDonald/Lake/Giles)

    Cat’s foot iron claw
    Neuro-surgeons scream for more
    At paranoia’s poison door.
    Twenty first century schizoid man.

    Blood rack barbed wire
    Politicians’ funeral pyre
    Innocents raped with napalm fire
    Twenty first century schizoid man.

    Death seed blind man’s greed
    Poets’ starving children bleed
    Nothing he’s got he really needs
    Twenty first century schizoid man.

  423. Dr Jane Karlsson February 4, 2007 4:12 am

    bp, kia, you are making the hairs rise on the back of my neck. Feels good.

  424. bp February 4, 2007 9:19 am

    kia, I gonna work on King Crimson. heh

  425. kia February 4, 2007 10:34 am

    bp,

    let me know if you need any help. some groups get lost to posterity because the music is too true for the times (i think that’s why your neck hairs are dancing to the music.)

    since it’s sunday, and no one seems to be using the space, here ya go.

    In The Wake Of Poseidon Lyrics
    by King Crimson

    [ Download Free Lyrics Software featuring King Crimson ] [ Send to a friend ]

    (Fripp/Sinfield)
    Plato’s spawn cold ivyed eyes
    Snare truth in bone and globe.
    Harlequins coin pointless games
    Sneer jokes in parrot’s robe.
    Two women weep, Dame Scarlet Screen
    Sheds sudden theatre rain,
    Whilst dark in dream the Midnight Queen
    Knows every human pain.

    In air, fire, earth and water
    World on the scales.
    Air, fire, earth and water
    Balance of change
    World on the scales
    On the scales.

    Bishop’s kings spin judgement’s blade
    Scratch “Faith” on nameless graves.
    Harvest hags Hoard ash and sand
    Rack rope and chain for slaves
    Who fireside fear fermented words
    Then rear to spoil the feast;
    Whilst in the aisle the mad man smiles
    To him it matters least.

    Heroes hands drain stones for blood
    To whet the scaling knife.
    Magi blind with visions light
    Net death in dread of life.
    Their children kneel in Jesus till
    They learn the price of nail;
    Whilst all around our mother earth
    Waits balanced on the scales.

    Peace and Wisdom to You and the Rest of Us

  426. jtgelt February 4, 2007 2:36 pm

    “The total amount includes 1.6 trillion US dollars. If the Chinese wanted to dump those trillion dollars in a single day, the increase in currency exchange for one day would be 33 percent.

    It would be a blip in the yearly chart. The dollar would sink some, dollar buyers would immediately rush in to buy to lower valued dollar and make a killing. The Chinese would be out of dollars. The end result: The dollar would reach new highs. The trillion dollars that the Chinese have depresses the value of the dollar and they know it. It helps the value of their currency and they know that too.

    I hope they do dump their dollars, which amounts to eighty cents or so for each Chinese citizen.

    A fool and his money are a soon parting.” — Muleskinner

    Sorry a couple flaws in your analysis. Understandable, a year ago I would have said the same thing, but I’ve been possessed as of late to have a better understanding of all this.

    There is 3 trillion dollars in FOREX assets in play on a daily basis. That does not mean that there is a new 3 trillion dollars each day, or some 260 trillion dollars in play each year. Each day, money is added, money is dispersed back into the economy, money is whisked into existence, money is blotted out of existence. The daily number is not cumulative. The U.S. economy is a 13 trillion dollar annual enterprise. Use that for perspective.

    The 3 trillion traded daily is valued at $3 trillion U.S. dollars. However 45% of it is actually denominated in dollars. The rest is Euros, Yen, Swiss Franks, Pounds and Aussie Dollars.

    Of that 3 Trillion in exchange, a little over $600 billion (in all currencies) is actually “money in the present.” The remainder is derivatives (forwards, swaps and options). The derivatives are in effect events that have yet to transpire, the goal of which is to smooth the FOREX process to mitigate huge changes in value. For example in a forward swap, equaling just shy of a trillion in daily transactions, favorable outcomes in the swap are actually renounced to maintain equilibrium.

    The Chinese trillions are not derivatives, but cash and real time electronic currency. So 1 trillion actual dollars dumped onto the forex would actually add about 3 times the amount of dollars being traded on a daily basis. I’m not an expert on derivatives, however, one would expect that the derivatives market would be heavily shocked as it attempted smooth over this aberration. The first impact would be immediate and it’s impacts would take at least months to fully unravel.

    Now if the dollar drops due to the Chinese dumping dollars, the world will interpret that as a major change in trade policy. Others would likely follow, not to mention forex traders dumping when certain automated stops were blown out.

    At that point fundamentals come into play. When the dollar does hits bottom, will people look at the U.S. economic, production and governmental fiscal situation as the bargain of the century? Or will they say, boy we were lucky to get out with the loses we did? I lean towards the latter.

    The big question, which I don’t have an answer to, is if the derivatives market attempts to correct for a dollar gusher, will it be a deflationary or inflationary event?

    One other thought. Nothing says the dumping has to occur in the FOREX. The dumping could occur in the form of buying things of value, equities and commodities. The effect would be inflationary and eventually it’s effects would spill into the FOREX as traders attempted to deal with the economic changes.

  427. muleskinner February 4, 2007 3:48 pm

    Don’t get mad, but I am forced to agree with your assessment more than mine.

    Thanks for imparting some wisdom about the subject.

    John Galt, Jr.

  428. jtgelt February 4, 2007 8:33 pm

    Darn! That’s no way to fight. A year ago I said the exact thing about the 3 Trillion in FOREX. As I read more about it, I realized that the figure had more complexity than I realized. The more I learn how global economics works the more my head hurts.

  429. Dr Jane Karlsson February 5, 2007 3:39 am

    jtgelt and muleskinner, thank you, thank you, thank you. jtgelt, please stay with us and give us some more like that.

  430. Dr Jane Karlsson February 5, 2007 3:56 am

    muleskinner, just read the John Galt Jr link you gave in 427. Excellent. Perhaps this is a good time to tell you how much I appreciate the little snippets of recent US history you give us.

  431. Dr Jane Karlsson February 5, 2007 4:01 am

    Kia, I don’t think I ever even heard of King Crimson. Wow, I have now. What’s the music like? I lean towards Pink Floyd.

  432. Makia February 5, 2007 5:03 am

    [letter of love, appreciation, respects, and wishes for them power in the day-to-day]

    to:

    all the posters at BullnotBull

    be thankful, it is the lamp that lights the darkness - once your eyes adjust. . .

  433. kia February 5, 2007 8:26 am

    John,

    Thanks for the FX education, keep it coming.

    Jane,

    I love Pink. The King tends to have a wider dynamic range. If you would to look for an intro you might try “A Young Person’s Guide to King Crimison” the difference between “21st Century Schizoid Man” and “I talk to the Wind” shows this range.

    Whether the music is to your taste or not the lyrics speak volumes about our impending return to the New Primitivism unfolding before us.

    Makia,

    I still yearn for more sunlight, as it is the best disinfectant. Or at least a headlamp.

    Peace

  434. Makia February 5, 2007 9:07 am

    Kia, i’m sure your halo works great.

  435. kia February 5, 2007 9:48 am

    Makia,

    It’s a work in progress brother, I appreciate you r posts, and your perspective.

    Someday I have to follow you into your forest with my knife!

    Peace

  436. Makia February 5, 2007 9:50 am

    “Someday I have to follow you into your forest with my knife!”

    ROFL!

  437. Makia February 5, 2007 9:53 am

    But someday maybe we will, kia, and i look forward to the opportunity.

  438. Makia February 5, 2007 9:54 am

    (in the cooperative way, not the stabbing in the back way!)

  439. muleskinner February 5, 2007 10:34 am

    For the denizens here, if you haven’t seen the movie ‘The Big Lebowski,’ don’t miss it.

    It gives the word ‘funny’ a new meaning.

    Home Brewing without Failures by H. E. Bravery

    http://www.librarything.com/author/braveryhe

  440. kia February 5, 2007 10:46 am

    Makia,

    gotta ask ROFL?

  441. bp February 5, 2007 10:59 am

    hm, muleskinner - seems to a heck of a lot of activity on Michael’s threads lately - was it you who linked to the site that showed activity - do you still have that link?

    ever gone to the Great American Beer Festival in Denver?… now that is crazy, hehe

  442. muleskinner February 5, 2007 11:08 am

    #150 on this thread has the link.

  443. Makia February 5, 2007 11:20 am

    Muleskinner: A-fucking-men about the Big Lebowski.

    A line that led to a big change in my understanding/perception of History 1966-:

    “The hippies lost Mr. Lebowski!”

    Kia: “Rolling On Floor Laughing”

  444. bp February 5, 2007 3:25 pm

    thanx muleskinner

  445. Gordo February 6, 2007 9:06 am

    Jane - you asked about the posts on climate change. First, it was in the comments of the “doom and gloom the world is going to hell” article so it was kind of relevant PLUS I only commented because others had already been discussing global warming in that thread. Then again, there have been off topic posts about it in this thread as well, so…

    GLOBAL WARMING: The real deal?
    Against the grain: Some scientists deny global warming exists

    Lawrence Solomon
    National Post
    Friday, February 02, 2007

    Astrophysicist Nir Shariv, one of Israel’s top young scientists, describes the logic that led him — and most everyone else — to conclude that SUVs, coal plants and other things man-made cause global warming.

    Step One: Scientists for decades have postulated that increases in carbon dioxide and other gases could lead to a greenhouse effect.

    Step Two: As if on cue, the temperature rose over the course of the 20th century while greenhouse gases proliferated due to human activities.

    Step Three: No other mechanism explains the warming. Without another candidate, greenhouses gases necessarily became the cause.

    The series

    Statistics needed — The Deniers Part I
    Warming is real — and has benefits — The Deniers Part II
    The hurricane expert who stood up to UN junk science — The Deniers Part IIIPolar scientists on thin ice — The Deniers Part IV
    The original denier: into the cold — The Deniers Part V
    The sun moves climate change — The Deniers Part VI
    Will the sun cool us? — The Deniers Part VII
    The limits of predictability — The Deniers Part VIII
    Look to Mars for the truth on global warming — The Deniers Part IX
    Limited role for C02 — the Deniers Part X

    Dr. Shariv, a prolific researcher who has made a name for himself assessing the movements of two-billion-year-old meteorites, no longer accepts this logic, or subscribes to these views. He has recanted: “Like many others, I was personally sure that CO2 is the bad culprit in the story of global warming. But after carefully digging into the evidence, I realized that things are far more complicated than the story sold to us by many climate scientists or the stories regurgitated by the media.

    “In fact, there is much more than meets the eye.”

    Dr. Shariv’s digging led him to the surprising discovery that there is no concrete evidence — only speculation — that man-made greenhouse gases cause global warming. Even research from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change– the United Nations agency that heads the worldwide effort to combat global warming — is bereft of anything here inspiring confidence. In fact, according to the IPCC’s own findings, man’s role is so uncertain that there is a strong possibility that we have been cooling, not warming, the Earth. Unfortunately, our tools are too crude to reveal what man’s effect has been in the past, let alone predict how much warming or cooling we might cause in the future.

    All we have on which to pin the blame on greenhouse gases, says Dr. Shaviv, is “incriminating circumstantial evidence,” which explains why climate scientists speak in terms of finding “evidence of fingerprints.” Circumstantial evidence might be a fine basis on which to justify reducing greenhouse gases, he adds, “without other ’suspects.’ ” However, Dr. Shaviv not only believes there are credible “other suspects,” he believes that at least one provides a superior explanation for the 20th century’s warming.

    “Solar activity can explain a large part of the 20th-century global warming,” he states, particularly because of the evidence that has been accumulating over the past decade of the strong relationship that cosmic- ray flux has on our atmosphere. So much evidence has by now been amassed, in fact, that “it is unlikely that [the solar climate link] does not exist.”

    The sun’s strong role indicates that greenhouse gases can’t have much of an influence on the climate — that C02 et al. don’t dominate through some kind of leveraging effect that makes them especially potent drivers of climate change. The upshot of the Earth not being unduly sensitive to greenhouse gases is that neither increases nor cutbacks in future C02 emissions will matter much in terms of the climate.

    Even doubling the amount of CO2 by 2100, for example, “will not dramatically increase the global temperature,” Dr. Shaviv states. Put another way: “Even if we halved the CO2 output, and the CO2 increase by 2100 would be, say, a 50% increase relative to today instead of a doubled amount, the expected reduction in the rise of global temperature would be less than 0.5C. This is not significant.”

    The evidence from astrophysicists and cosmologists in laboratories around the world, on the other hand, could well be significant. In his study of meteorites, published in the prestigious journal, Physical Review Letters, Dr. Shaviv found that the meteorites that Earth collected during its passage through the arms of the Milky Way sustained up to 10% more cosmic ray damage than others. That kind of cosmic ray variation, Dr. Shaviv believes, could alter global temperatures by as much as 15% –sufficient to turn the ice ages on or off and evidence of the extent to which cosmic forces influence Earth’s climate.

    In another study, directly relevant to today’s climate controversy, Dr. Shaviv reconstructed the temperature on Earth over the past 550 million years to find that cosmic ray flux variations explain more than two-thirds of Earth’s temperature variance, making it the most dominant climate driver over geological time scales. The study also found that an upper limit can be placed on the relative role of CO2 as a climate driver, meaning that a large fraction of the global warming witnessed over the past century could not be due to CO2 — instead it is attributable to the increased solar activity.

    CO2 does play a role in climate, Dr. Shaviv believes, but a secondary role, one too small to preoccupy policymakers. Yet Dr. Shaviv also believes fossil fuels should be controlled, not because of their adverse affects on climate but to curb pollution.

    “I am therefore in favour of developing cheap alternatives such as solar power, wind, and of course fusion reactors (converting Deuterium into Helium), which we should have in a few decades, but this is an altogether different issue.” His conclusion: “I am quite sure Kyoto is not the right way to go.”

    Lawrence Solomon@nextcity.com

  446. Gordo February 6, 2007 9:30 am

    Oh, and the UN is a joke as well…
    The hurricane expert who stood up to UN junk science
    December 8, 2006

    You’re a respected scientist, one of the best in your field. So respected, in fact, that when the United Nations decided to study the relationship between hurricanes and global warming for the largest scientific endeavour in its history — its International Panel on Climate Change — it called upon you and your expertise.

    You are Christopher Landsea of the Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory. You were a contributing author for the UN’s second International Panel on Climate Change in 1995, writing the sections on observed changes in tropical cyclones around the world. Then the IPCC called on you as a contributing author once more, for its “Third Assessment Report” in 2001. And you were invited to participate yet again, when the IPCC called on you to be an author in the “Fourth Assessment Report.” This report would specifically focus on Atlantic hurricanes, your specialty, and be published by the IPCC in 2007.

    Then something went horribly wrong. Within days of this last invitation, in October, 2004, you discovered that the IPCC’s Kevin Trenberth — the very person who had invited you — was participating in a press conference. The title of the press conference perplexed you: “Experts to warn global warming likely to continue spurring more outbreaks of intense hurricane activity.” This was some kind of mistake, you were certain. You had not done any work that substantiated this claim. Nobody had.

    As perplexing, none of the participants in that press conference were known for their hurricane expertise. In fact, to your knowledge, none had performed any research at all on hurricane variability, the subject of the press conference. Neither were they reporting on any new work in the field. All previous and current research in the area of hurricane variability, you knew, showed no reliable upward trend in the frequency or intensity of hurricanes. Not in the Atlantic basin. Not in any other basin.

    To add to the utter incomprehensibility of the press conference, the IPCC itself, in both 1995 and 2001, had found no global warming signal in the hurricane record. And until your new work would come out, in 2007, the IPCC would not have a new analysis on which to base a change of findings.

    To stop the press conference, or at least stop any misunderstandings that might come out of it, you contacted Dr. Trenberth prior to the media event. You prepared a synopsis for him that brought him up to date on the state of knowledge about hurricane formation. To your amazement, he simply dismissed your concerns. The press conference proceeded.

    And what a press conference it was! Hurricanes had been all over the news that summer. Global warming was the obvious culprit — only a fool or an oil-industry lobbyist, the press made clear, could ignore the link between what seemed to be ever increasing hurricane activity and ever increasing global warming. The press conference didn’t disappoint them. The climate change experts at hand all confirmed the news that the public had been primed to hear: Global warming was causing hurricanes. This judgement from the scientists made headlines around the world, just as it was intended to do. What better way to cast global warming as catastrophic than to make hurricanes its poster child?

    You wanted to right this outrageous wrong, this mockery that was made of your scientific field. You wrote top IPCC officials, imploring: “Where is the science, the refereed publications, that substantiate these pronouncements? What studies are being alluded to that have shown a connection between observed warming trends on the earth and long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity? As far as I know, there are none.” But no one in the IPCC leadership showed the slightest concern for the science. The IPCC’s overriding preoccupation, it soon sunk in, lay in capitalizing on the publicity opportunity that the hurricane season presented.

    You then asked the IPCC leadership for assurances that your work for the IPCC’s 2007 report would be true to science: “[Dr. Trenberth] seems to have already come to the conclusion that global warming has altered hurricane activity and has publicly stated so. This does not reflect the consensus within the hurricane research community. … Thus I would like assurance that what will be included in the IPCC report will reflect the best available information and the consensus within the scientific community most expert on the specific topic.”

    The assurance didn’t come. What did come was the realization that the IPCC was corrupting science. This you could not be a party to. You then resigned, in an open letter to the scientific community laying out your reasons.

    Next year, the IPCC will come out with its “Fourth Assessment Report,” and for the first time in a decade, you will not be writing its section on hurricanes. That task will be left to the successor that Dr. Trenberth chose. As part of his responsibility, he will need to explain why — despite all expectations — the 2006 hurricane year was so unexpectedly light, and at the historical average for the past 150 years.

  447. bp February 6, 2007 1:23 pm

    Gordo, just for you — Fraser Institute fires off a damp squib
    Filed under:

    * Climate Science
    * IPCC

    — group @ 3:16 pm

    While most of the world’s climate scientists were following the IPCC fest last week, a few contrarians left out in the cold were trying to to organize their own party.

    An unofficial, “Independent Summary for Policymakers” (ISPM) of the IPCC Fourth Assessment report has been delivered by the Fraser Institute. It’s a long, imposing-looking document, resembling, come to think of it, the formatting of the real Summary for Policymakers (SPM) document that was released on Friday after final negotiations of the IPCC in Paris last week. The Fraser Institute has assembled an awesome team of 10 authors, including such RC favorites as tilter-against-windmills-and-hockey-sticks Ross McKitrick, and other luminaries such as William Kininmonth, MSc, M.Admin — whose most recent paper is “Don’t be Gored into Going Along” in the Oct-Nov issue of Power Engineer. To be fair, he did publish a paper on weather forecasting, back in 1973. According to the press release, the London kickoff event will be graced by the presence of “noted environmentalist” David Bellamy. It’s true he’s “noted,” but what he’s noted for is his blatant fabrication of numbers purporting to show that the world’s glaciers are advancing rather retreating, as reported here.

    Why go to all the trouble of producing an “independent” summary? The authors illuminate us with this wisdom regarding the official Summary for Policymakers: “A further problem is that the Summary for Policy Makers attached to the IPCC Report is produced, not by the scientific writers and reviewers, but by a process of negotiation among unnamed bureaucratic delegates from sponsoring governments.” This statement (charitably) shows that the Fraser Institute authors are profoundly ignorant of the IPCC process. In fact, the actual authors of the official SPM are virtually all scientists, and are publically acknowleged. Moreover, the lead authors of the individual chapters are represented in the writing process leading to the SPM, and their job is to defend the basic science in their chapters. As lead author Gerald Meehl remarked to one of us on his way to Paris: “Scientists have to be ok, they have the last check. If they think the science is not represented, then they can send it back to the breakout groups. ”

    A common accusation at the time of the Third Assessment Report was that the SPM didn’t reflect the science in the rest of the report. A special National Academy panel was convened at the request of President GW Bush, to consider this and other issues. The Panel found no significant disconnect between the SPM and the body of the report. The procedure followed this time is not in essence any different from that which has been used for previous IPCC reports.

    One of the strangest sections of the Fraser Institute report is the one in which the authors attempt to throw dirt on the general concept of radiative forcing. Radiative forcing is nothing more than an application of the principle of conservation of energy, looking at the way a greenhouse gas alters the energy balance of a planet. The use of energy conservation arguments of this type has been standard practice in physics at least since the time of Fourier. We have heard certain vice presidents dismiss “Energy Conservation” as merely a matter of personal virtue, but we have never before heard people who purport to be scientists write off the whole utility of “Conservation of Energy.” From what is written in the Fraser report, it is not even clear that the authors understand the first thing about how radiative transfer calculations are done. They criticize the radiative forcing concept because it “fails to take into account the lifetime of greenhouse gases” — as if we really needed to know anything more about CO2 in this regard than that it stays around for centuries to millennia. They say that radiative forcing “is computed by assuming a linear relationship between certain climatic forcing agents and particular averages of temperature data.” Nonsense. It is computed using detailed calculations of absorption and emission of infrared radiation, based on laboratory measurements carried out with exquisite accuracy, and meticulously checked against real atmospheric observations.

    Hockey-stick bashing and solar-explains-all advocacy are favorite activities of the denialist camp, so it is no surprise to see both themes amply represented in the Fraser Institute report. In neither case does the Fraser report break new ground in bad behavior. It’s just more of the same old same old. On climate of the past millennium, the Fraser report misrepresents the recent National Research Council report , which concluded quite the opposite of what the Fraser report claims it concluded: The National Research Council, like the official SPM, affirms that recent warming really does appear anomalous in light of the past millennium. The Fraser report obscures this point by cleansing the recent period of warming from their graphs. The discussion of solar variability consists of a lot of vague talk about unexplored possibilities, while skirting the basic problem with solar variability as an explanation of recent warming: There is no observed trend in solar activity of a type that could explain recent warming, and if the problem were an unobserved trend in solar ultraviolet, it would make the stratosphere (where UV is absorbed by ozone) trend warmer relative to a constant-solar baseline. In reality, the stratosphere is cooling strongly, and at about the rate the models predict.

    The basic approach taken by the Fraser Institute Report is to fling a lot of mud at the models and hope that at least some of it sticks. Of course, if one looks at enough details one is bound to find some areas where there is a mismatch between models and reality. Modellers do this all the time, as a way of improving the representation of physical processes. However, to highlight a few shortcomings without asking what their implications might be for climate sensitivity, or whether the mismatch might be due to data problems rather than model problems (as in the case of tropical lapse rate), gives a distorted picture of the state of the art. An examination of the model shortcomings in the light of the vast range of important things they get right leaves the fundamental premise of the cause of warming unchallenged, and to see why, one needs to turn to a balanced assessment of the science such as represented in the full IPCC report.

    The Fraser Institute authors also raise the curious objection that models have not been “formally proven” to be suitable for predicting the future. We are not sure what it would mean to “formally prove” such a thing (Kurt Gödel, are you listening?), but the specific objection raised in the Fraser report makes no sense: the authors suggest that the number of tunable parameters in models is so great that it may exceed the degrees of freedom in the data being “fit.” In reality, there are at most a dozen or two parameters that modellers touch, most of these are constrained to certain limits by data, and there are physical limitations to what one can do to the output by changing such parameters. In contrast, adding up time series of temperature and precipitation and pressure as a function of latitude and longitude, seasonal cycles, surface radiation balance, ocean heat storage, ENSO events, past climates, and vertical structure, there are literally thousands of observational constraints involved in the evaluation of model behavior.

    There are so many bizarre statements in the Fraser Institute report that some of us think that spotting them could serve as a good final exam in an elementary course on climate change. Take your pick. The report states that “The IPCC gives limited consideration to aerosols …” whereas aerosols have been a key part of the scenarios since the Second Assessment Report, were the key to explaining the interrupted mid-century warming, and cannot in any way be mangled so as to spuriously give the warming of the past decades. The ISPM regales us with tales of natural global warming in the distant past, without pointing out that these happened over millions of years, had often massive consequences nonetheless, and were linked to processes like continental drift which are unlikely to be part of the explanation of the recent warming. The Fraser report describes the climate changes of the past century as “minor” (a value-laden and subjective term if ever there was one), failing to realize that climate change so far has been the fire alarm, not the fire. The climate of 2100 is not forecast to be mild.

    We could go on, but why bother? We’ll leave off with a quote. “most places have observed slight increases in rain and/or snow cover”

    Actually, consulting the draft of Chapter 4, snow cover kinda looks likes it’s been decreasing, not increasing. But take a look at the artful use of “and/or”. The sentence is not “formally” wrong. Superb! When you hear “ISPM,” just think “Incorrect Summary for Policymakers.”

  448. the stranger February 6, 2007 7:15 pm

    Jtgelt 406, 426 – damn, agree completely; a person would be hard pressed to express it better. Muleskinner, your response “…I am forced to agree with your assessment more than mine.” That’s class. The Big Lebowski, funny – great narration too…

    A Climate Change thread someday?

  449. kia February 6, 2007 11:17 pm

    bp,

    Thanks, it’s time to slaughter the swine for hire.

    Gordo, here’s a link

    http://www.comedycentral.com/motherload/player.jhtml?ml_video=81744&ml_collection=&ml_gateway=&ml_gateway_id=&ml_comedian=&ml_runtime=&ml_context=show&ml_origin_url=%2Fshows%2Fthe_colbert_report%2Fvideos%2Fmost_recent%2Findex.jhtml&ml_playlist=&lnk=&is_large=true

    “as long as we can find one scientist to say global warming doesn’t exist, then it doesn’t” -Steven Colbert

    your ignorance is astounding

  450. Dr Jane Karlsson February 7, 2007 4:52 am

    Might I make an observation about climate change? I’ve just read the IPCC summary Kia posted on 404, and it’s very impressive. Gordo, that article you gave us is also interesting, and in fact the IPPC summary does say that the data on hurricanes isn’t very good.

    There is in fact another dimension to this that has been overlooked, and that is that the sun’s activity plays a role. Yes I know, it hasn’t been overlooked completely, but it’s been dismissed because it apparently doesn’t account for climate change after around 1950, if I remember. However.

    Take a look at this: http://www.rense.com/general66/expl.htm

    It shows that we don’t know shit about the sun, basically.

  451. bp February 7, 2007 6:54 am

    Dr Jane, I would agree that there is always more to climate change than human effect, in fact I also hear stories that there is a increase in heat coming from the interior of the planet…but as someone, maybe Rich, mentioned before - it’s not a good idea to soil one’s own bed - and I would add that it is especially unwise to deny that one is doing it

  452. kia February 7, 2007 7:28 am

    bp,

    that would be Chief Seattle.

    Jane,

    Thanks for the article, I think it shows that astrophysicits have not properly factored electromagnetic effects on the sun/earth coupling.

    Gordo,

    Exxon is offering $10K to any “scientist” to refute the IPCC’s findings through the American Enterprise Institute.

    I’m sure you’ll always find scientists bought and paid for by the multinational hydrocarbon extraction industry to agree with your point of view. Just like the tobacco industry scientists who swore that the was no causal relationship between lung cancer and cigarettes.

    Peace

  453. bp February 7, 2007 7:42 am

    kia, Chief Seattle, Rich…one half dozen, another, heh - yeah, I musta been thinking of Chief Seattle recently - guess someone pointed me there

  454. bp February 7, 2007 8:20 am

    oh, kia, BTW, you being in the NW, have you read this guy’s stuff - http://dneiwert.blogspot.com/2006/12/eliminationism-in-america-i.html

  455. kia February 7, 2007 10:22 am

    bp,

    thanks for the link, it is interesting how the process of elimination is aimed at everyone in the society except the PTB, it is a domestic mirror to our foreign policy of not talking with nations whom we disagree with.

    I think you are thinking of Chief Seattle because of the quote I posted.

    Keep those links coming!

  456. kia February 7, 2007 10:31 am

    bp,

    Here’s that quote:

    Continue to contaminate your bed, and you will one night suffocate in your own waste. Your destiny is a mystery to us - Chief Seattle

  457. bp February 7, 2007 10:34 am

    yeah, kia - that’s it - plagiarized, hehe

  458. kia February 7, 2007 11:24 am

    bp,

    actually he mentioned it to me over a peace pipe load;-)

  459. kia February 7, 2007 12:35 pm

    Dear All,

    Here’s a story from the hyperinflation front:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/zimbabwe/article/0,,2007905,00.html

  460. Dr Jane Karlsson February 8, 2007 5:40 am

    bp 450, yes, exactly. Do you have a reference to heat coming from the centre of the earth? I do remember, and meant to ask before.

    Kia 451, you’re right, they haven’t. And it could be very significant. Are you familiar with ‘the electric universe’? http://www.thunderbolts.info These people are ‘proper’ scientists, and their view of the universe makes far more sense to me than the conventional one, although it’s radically different. No Big Bang, for instance. Well, we all knew the Big Bang was silly, didn’t we.

    I don’t think they say anything about climate change, but the idea would be that there electric currents flowing round the ‘interplanetary magnetic field’ which connects the sun and planets, and that man’s activities are blocking the flow. That means heat.

    There’s something about the greenhouse gas thing that doesn’t sound quite right to me. I know the correlations are good, and the experiments show how it could work, but still …

  461. bp February 8, 2007 5:58 am

    Dr jane 459 - Rich, I think, should have a link

  462. Makia February 8, 2007 6:55 am

    kia. . . do we know eachother?

  463. kia February 8, 2007 8:01 am

    Makia,

    Does a man know himself?;-)

  464. kia February 8, 2007 8:12 am

    Jane,

    I studied the ENSO, El Nino, and Climate Change in the 1970’s, the atmospheric build-up of carbon dioxide and more importantly methane is the significant driver of elevated average atmospheric and oceanic temperatures. The current rate of increase in which is 3 orders of magnitude faster than anything seen in the 650,000 years of the ice record. The melting observed in Greenland, the Arctic and Antarctic are outstripping current modeling efforts, causing significant alarm in the community.

    Are there other contributing factors? Or course. Is worth arguing about ala Reagan on Acid Rain? NO. Can we do something about it? Yes the banning of CFCs world wide has proven we can.

    As Americans we are responsible for 1/3 of the emissions of GHG world wide. It is time to get off our asses and do something about it.

    Peace

  465. Makia February 8, 2007 9:08 am

    You must be John. I am pretty sure you aren’t, as John to my knowledge didn’t do any climbing like that; but sometimes i wonder if you are he, up to your old tricks, playing coyote teacher.

  466. kia February 8, 2007 9:32 am

    Makia,

    FWIIW Carlos Castenada taught me quite a bit.

    What city do you live in?

  467. bp February 8, 2007 9:37 am

    kia, I’m with you on the environment - things are complex, but that is no reason for inaction

  468. kia February 8, 2007 9:43 am

    bp,

    Thanks, I’m so tired of listening to the fiddling while Rome burns. The simple fact is that virtually every life support system in the world has been in decline since the 70’s and the Americans have reacted by increasing their impact.

    In face of the Energy Wars (which will be unending) and Global Warming, the Americans make themselves feel smart by questioning science that they know nothing about. I’m sure you’ve seen enough of this in the posts here.

    Regardless of the causes, the effects are undeniable, It’s just TOO stupid, even for the Americans, and that is saying something.

    Peace

  469. Makia February 8, 2007 9:54 am

    kia, live in philly, from the pittsburgh area.

    Do you mean you learned from Castenada personally? And what is FWIIW?

  470. kia February 8, 2007 10:01 am

    Makia,

    Sorry, “For What It Is Worth”. I met him when he was trying to wrest his Phd from his committee at UCLA after publishing the best selling anthropological books in history. It was a fine education in the dynamics of academics in the face of groundbreaking work. Not a pretty picture. I felt sorry about his passing, as I never felt his contribution to “knowing” was ever acknowledged.

    I doubt that you and I have ever met, until this site. But, who knows?

    Not I said the Frog!

    Peace and Mystery

  471. kia February 8, 2007 10:06 am

    Jane,

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-pemex8feb08,0,2450061.story?track=tottext

    Here’s the latest I’ve seen on the Canterell with a predicted 15% YOY production shortfall, which is roughly three times what PEMEX has been putting out.

    The article is worth reading because it shows how much Mexico relies on oil for government funding.

    This is the Face of Peak Oil.

  472. kia February 8, 2007 10:38 am

    “Frugality and efficiency can yield expanding returns. Perhaps we can begin laying visible foundations for a richer, cooler, fairer and safer world.” - Amory Lovins

  473. Makia February 8, 2007 11:41 am

    Kia, it would almost seem remarkable if you and i have not seen eachother around, somewhere in the ethereal realm. From the limited expression of these posts, our verbalizations have a distinctly similar melody. Almost like we’ve been jamming together. . .

  474. kia February 8, 2007 12:42 pm

    Makia,

    Thats the beauty or our interaction, I’m glad that your share the sense of the Vibes. There are esoteric teachings that advance the idea that as a part of reincarnation thats souls tend to evolve around each other over multiple lifetimes. As always, I don’t know, but observing those around me, reincarnation helps me explain the variation in awareness that I see. As for me I’ trying to keep up a good mix of observation, science, literature, art, music, and most importantly humor on my path and am thankful for the company of people like yourself, stranger, bp, jane (and Zephyr if he is reading this)

    Peace

  475. Makia February 8, 2007 1:51 pm

    indeed

  476. bp February 8, 2007 3:22 pm

    kia, one point - my hunch is that science and religion will begin to merge as we move forward - hopefully for the better, especially if eastern philosophy is part of the mix - think you can already see it in quantum physics and biology theories now

  477. kia February 8, 2007 5:57 pm

    bp,

    I couldn’t agree with you more, from the time I read Franz Capra’s “Dancing Wooly Masters” to reading about the Dalai Lama’s interest in science to aid in the exploration of consciousness I have all felt that they are complementary, not exclusionary.

    I just hope we can stop the Armageddon Express before the Fundamentalists destroy the planet.

    After all it’s a nice planet, and I like living on it.

    Peace

  478. bp February 9, 2007 5:39 am

    kia, hehe - yeah from your background, i.e., mountain climbing and surfing, I figured you liked the planet, heh…but we haven’t reached the Crisis yet (I don’t take 911 to be it). I think it, the Crisis, will be a constellation of events that will force us, or even the whole world, to reconsider our approach to Life…a make or break deal, definitely gonna be interesting….I don’t fear death as much as pain and deprivation - guess I get to face my fears in the coming years

  479. Dr Jane Karlsson February 9, 2007 6:57 am

    Kia, thanks. So Cantarell really is crashing too.

    I am very happy to agree to differ on greenhouse gases, and I am by no means confident of my views on this. The important thing as you say is that the climate is changing due to human activity, and we have to do something about it.

  480. kia February 9, 2007 7:58 am

    bp,

    I don’t fear death, I just don’t want much notice;-)

    Jane,

    I don’t pretend to know all the dynamics of global warming, but I am fairly sure about the causal relationship between the rising concentration of GHG and rising atmospheric/oceanic temperatures. And the data is irrefutable. Given the crashing nature of the some of the world’s largest oil supplies and the endless energy wars that the US/UK/Israel are willing to engage in it just makes sense to stop wasting such a precious commodity. Once again:

    “Frugality and efficiency can yield expanding returns. Perhaps we can begin laying visible foundations for a richer, cooler, fairer and safer world.” - Amory Lovins

    We can disagree on the causes while we are working toward a solution.

    Peace

  481. kia February 9, 2007 1:01 pm

    Jane,

    Here’s a great article on the oil situation in the Nigerian Delta:

    http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2007/02/junger200702

    No surprise why the US military just established it’s first Africa Command.

    Did I mention ENDLESS energy wars?

    Peace

  482. Ellen February 10, 2007 4:12 am

    Hi, great article, but why do you say that quote from Jefferson is apocryphal? I don’t find any evidence of that anywhere on the Net, and it fits in with the rest of his 1816 letter to John Tyler to which it is credited. I’ve quoted it myself and don’t want to misquote. Thanks, Ellen

  483. Dr Jane Karlsson February 10, 2007 4:40 am

    Thanks Kia, excellent article. No solution to that problem, is there. Kind of like our own situation, everything is so interlinked that no individual can do anything. Except wait, and go mad. Sorry, that article kind of deflated my sense of humour. Keep them coming, though.

  484. kia February 10, 2007 11:13 am

    Jane,

    The solution is recognizing that foreigners have right to benefit from the resources in their country through fair trade. If we don’t like the cost then we need develop an alternative rather than taking the resources by force.

    Think about what could be done with solar, wind, biofuels, and nuclear sources with the 3/4 Trillion USD spent in the Pipelinestan wars. I’m not privy to what Bush’s poodle is spending in UK pounds, but it does seem to be a false economy that looks like has the potential to drag the entire US/UK/Israel Axis of Agression into the economic abyss.

    Me, I’ll take the alternative(s)

    Peace

  485. kia February 12, 2007 12:29 pm

    Jane,

    Here’s something on the alternative to the GHG premise for heating. For my money it is a combination of many things interacting in a non-linear fashion.

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1363818.ece

  486. uhgj btos February 12, 2007 1:02 pm

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  487. dsfhejw yndf February 12, 2007 1:03 pm

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  488. mewxbtf gomxsekp February 12, 2007 1:04 pm

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  489. bp February 12, 2007 1:20 pm

    hm, guess Michael has stopped cleaning up the posts here, heh

  490. kia February 12, 2007 2:42 pm

    bp, Michael,

    if you are still here, are these “hackers” in 486-489?

    thanks,

  491. Dr Jane Karlsson February 13, 2007 5:52 am

    Kia, 485, many thanks. Yes I’d seen it, and thought it was very interesting. Certainly ideas about the sun can explain the heating of the other planets, which greenhouse gases cannot.

    I nevertheless do have a strong feeling that human activity is somehow involved. The earth clearly has a system resembling the acupuncture meridian system of the human body, with ‘ley lines’ detectable by dowsers, whose meeting points were always magical/holy sites where megalithic structures and later, churches were built.

    If human activity is retarding the flows of electric current along these lines, wouldn’t it produce heat? It might also be expected to produce earthquakes and volcanoes, so I don’t understand why we haven’t had more of those. But we have had a couple of mega ones, haven’t we.

    Interested to hear your thoughts on this.

  492. kia February 13, 2007 10:56 am

    Jane,

    What we know is:

    The Stefan-Boltzmann law predicted these effects accurately 150 years ago. Our current CO2 level of 381 ppm is roughly three times the average over the last 650,000 years of the ice record. Current heating trends are roughly three orders of magnitude faster than anything seen in the ice record.

    What we don’t know its associated with changes happening solar system wide. If human activity is serving as a resistance to the flow of electricity, thermodynamics tells us that it would cascade down the entropy system to become heat.

    I suggest that what we observe is a symbiosis of the two, with non-linear future effects that will redefine the Law of Unintended Consequences.

    What do you think?

  493. Dr Jane Karlsson February 14, 2007 4:54 am

    Unfortunately I haven’t had the time to look at this as closely as it needs. Wasn’t it you that gave us the article about the other planets heating up?

    Wish I could find some people who talk about both the electric universe and climate change. I expect Wallace Thornhill of http://www.thunderbolts.info does, but not in public.

  494. kia February 14, 2007 10:27 am

    Jane,

    Yes I did, here it is again for your review

    http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread221608/pg1

  495. Patrick Kolla February 14, 2007 3:44 pm

    if your system got Fu^cked up by RogurRemover, here is what i did to fix it, I ended up hiding my partition with all my important stuff on it (Using Hirens Boot CD 8.8 and Paragon Partition Manager) , then remove assigned drive letter, and then did a full destroy and recover to Factory Specs., then after everything was back, i used Paragon Partition Manager to assign drive letter then unhide my Valuable partition. DO NOT MAKE THE SAME MISTAKE, DO NOT INSTALL RogurRemover, it damages your boot sector and that will make it impossible to recover unless you do the steps that i mentioned here. I will raise my voice on their forums from now on, because this was such a bad headacke.

  496. Patrick Kolla February 14, 2007 3:51 pm

    if your system got Fu^cked up by RogueRemover, here is what i did to fix it, I ended up hiding my partition with all my important stuff on it (Using Hirens Boot CD 8.8 and Paragon Partition Manager) , then remove assigned drive letter, and then did a full destroy and recover to Factory Specs., then after everything was back, i used Paragon Partition Manager to assign drive letter then unhide my Valuable partition. DO NOT MAKE THE SAME MISTAKE, DO NOT INSTALL RogueRemover, it damages your boot sector and that will make it impossible to recover unless you do the steps that i mentioned here. I will raise my voice on their forums from now on, because this was such a bad headacke.

  497. Dr Jane Karlsson February 15, 2007 4:52 am

    Hi Kia, I’ve been through that site in more detail now, and I think it’s pretty difficult to draw conclusions. There certainly do seem to be trends on Mars, Jupiter and Pluto. But I wouldn’t want to put money on it.

    Nevertheless, just supposing that derangement of electric currents in the earth is contributing to global warming, one would expect these currents to be flowing from the earth out into the interplanetary magnetic field and back again. I remember reading once that changes in the magnetic field of Uranus were accompanied by increased volcano and/or earthquake activity on earth.

  498. kia February 15, 2007 8:24 am

    Jane,

    You and me sweetheart. That’s why I stick with simple observation.

    I think electomagnetics is once of the least understood forces in the universe. It has been proven to effect EQ frequency on the Earth. But if you go ask a doctor how it effects the body they just stare at you.

    Nevertheless people happily walk around with their little “brain toasters” pressed to their heads, happily prattling along.

    The science I have seen indicated that they can document disturbed brain states in children for up to 4 hours after using a cell phone.

    Funny that ADD and cell phone usage should rise together no?

    I’d be willing to bet that cell phone disturb/disrupt people’s thought processes.

    What do you think?

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