Reader Comments on
Chinese Rooster Year Outlook, Part 1
M.A. Nystrom, M.B.A.
Man on the street in (the Republic of) China
February 7, 2005
1. Thank You
Thanks to everyone who took the time to read my article
last week, and especially those who emailed me with interesting
questions and comments. They stimulate my brain and keep me on my
toes (and then there are those that keep my head from getting too
big, too!). If you wrote me an email and I didn't respond, please
accept my apologies. I guarantee you that I read and pondered it,
and if it was really interesting or had a really good question,
then it will likely become fodder for future articles, so stay tuned
and keep the email coming. I'll keep reading them, but if I responded
to every one I wouldn't have time for anything else :).
If you haven't read the original article, take a gander
at it over here: Chinese
Rooster Year Outlook, Part 1.
Now, onto the comments.
2. The Comments
Michael,
As a review of the transition from the Dark Ages to the Age of Enlightenment
I would like to share the following: during the Dark Ages, people's
minds were ruled by fear; the authority of religion and the state
reigned supreme. The Enlightenment grew upon beliefs in natural
law and universal order.
Today we are bound by fear and a disregard for natural
boundaries. Look at the fear generated from the constant threat
of war and terrorism. Look at the unrestricted monetary policy released
from the shackles of nature [gold] to allow for the creation of
unlimited debt. For the propagandists and the alchemists to be exposed,
the world must suffer through the transition from illusion to reality.
2005 will experience the beginnings of this painful awareness.
- H & J
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Michael,
There is an interesting book written by Strauss and Howe (S&H)
with the title "The Fourth Turning, an American prophecy."
www.fourthturning.com.
In essence, it says that members of every 4th generation share the
same mindset and societal conditions. Each series of 4 generational
turnings, a saeculum, follow the same generational pattern: prophet,
nomad, hero, artist. A turning occurs when conditions for one generation
ends and the next begins. The 4th turning occurs when the artists
(the silent generation, born during the last depression) are leaving
power and entering elderhood, the prophets (baby boomers) are in
adulthood, the nomads (gen Xers) are in young adulthood, and the
heroes (millenials) are coming of age. A crisis event triggers a
response which starts the next saeculum.
Their website gives a synopsis of their theories - a teaser for
you to buy the book - and provides a forum for discussion. They
published the book in 1995. At that time, they predicted that the
stock market would peak in 2000. They also predicted that the next
"crisis" event would occur around 2005. They then laid
out some possible triggers including a terrorist bombing, a disease
pandemic, and a financial meltdown.
We are now standing at another precipice similar to 1929 or 1860
or 1775. Each of these years had a major triggering event and an
historically significant aftermath. We have many potential triggers
in place around the world - US monetary deficits, terrorist events,
national and religious fascism around the globe, peak oil, etc.
One of these will snap, and the response will be to deal with it
swiftly and decisively. Our president, a baby boomer, is well known
for taking this type of action. The people of the world will be
forced to deal with the repercussions for the next generation. Because
of peak oil, nuclear and biological weapons, and other technological
miracles, the next "generation" may last a century or
more.
S&H say that before modern times, a generation lasted 25 years
+/- which is about 2 Great years. Ancient Chinese may have noticed
recurring similarities and created their calendar accordingly. Chinese
society is much more structured than American society. Their children
are expected to comply with the assigned characteristics of their
birth year. As a result, the children assimilate those defining
characteristics and pass on the expectations. American society is
much more independent. The characteristics of our children are more
influenced by peers who are in the same age group, rather than of
the same birth year.
A crisis is just around the corner. Although this is the Chinese
year of the Rooster, I believe it is merely a coincidence, not the
cause of the impending meltdown. Look at a cycle of any of the Chinese
signs. You'll find some years with significant events whereas 12
years before or later, nothing overly significant occurred.
- K
-------------
How does Hitler's Reucitshag and Bush's 9/11 compare?
On how the towers came down, look up "In
Plane Site" on the net and make up your own mind.
- R.C.
-------------
Dear Sir,
As for coincidences...they are a fact, not fiction. But one must
prove it to him/herself. You must connect the dots to see the coincidences
and have an open mind using logic.
As for this year and the markets, they are getting more and more
manipulated. Greed is overtaking the planet and Mother Earth will
correct this imbalance.
I expect the year of the Rooster to begin be as in the past....not
too pretty.
R egards,
D
-------------
Michael,
2005: Will it be a year of endings, new beginnings, or terrible
events? Or none of the above?
My short answer is… Maybe all of the above.
Why? Because endings are always the start of new beginnings, and…
major endings always come with terrible events. Here are some specifics:
Peak oil: There are various forecasts
for the peak of global oil production, the earliest being for 2005.
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil (http://www.peakoil.net/),
one of the most credible sources, forecasts a date that now stands
at 2007. However, it is not the actual peak date that matters. The
mere anticipation of this event has already unleashed a war in Iraq,
and a host of related international uncertainties and instabilities.
If the end of cheap oil is not the beginning of the some of the
greatest changes and challenges that modern man may ever see, I
don’t know what is.
The global economy: The modern global
economy, for a myriad of selfish, shortsighted reasons, is now rapidly
reaching a point of complete unsustainablility. Ronald R. Cooke,
the Author of "Oil, Jihad, and Destiny." sums up the prospects
for 2005 as follows:
"Let's evaluate the odds. Further deterioration
in the dollar: 100%. But we don't know how far it will slide, or
if it will recover. Higher inflation: 100%. But we don't know how
high it will go before the end of 2005. Oil disruptions: 100%. But
we don't know if there will be sufficient damage to cause oil shortages
or how long these shortages will last. War and terrorism: 100%.
But it is difficult to assess their impact on the economy. Debt
crisis: 70%. If all goes well in 2005, there will be no debt crisis.
But in order for this to happen, everything else has to work. No
economic or political screw-ups to shake investor confidence."
You can find the source article from which this was
taken at http://www.financialsense.com/
where you will also find a chorus of others saying just about
the same thing in many different ways. In any case, 2005 is certainly
a looming possibility for the beginning of the end of the global
economy as we now know it. And, if so, it will also be the beginning
of an entirely new kind of economic thinking as we are forced to
re-invent the way we do trade.
Crop circles: Crop circles have been
found in various places on the planet since the 1970’s and
have been seriously studied and recorded since the early 1990’s.
Some of the most impressive have occurred in the UK and may be viewed
at http://www.temporarytemples.co.uk/.
Crop circles were first thought to be hoaxes, and while there have
been some that are, most are not. In fact, the size and complexity
of those now appearing defy conventional explanation. With all that
is implied by the beginnings and endings cited above, I cannot believe
that the appearance of these strange patterns in farmers fields,
every year like clock work, is not somehow connected with what is
now happening on this planet. One way or another, this is the beginning
of the most unpredictable and unprecedented of times, and I think
that the crop circles are heralding this. Maybe 2005 will be that
year that we find out what is behind the crop circles. And, if so,
what an incredible beginning that would be!
-T.P, Canada
------------
Hi Michael,
How about a few of these?
- The tsunami (close enough to 2005)
- Great strides in space exploration (the 2 rovers on mars, the
Saturn Cassini project)
- The death of Pope Paul II (no wishful thinking here)
- The death (not assassination) of George W. Bush. The ill-fated
20-year presidential death cycle, which alternates with assassinations
and deaths, has not proven to be over. Deaths usually come later
in the administration than assassination. Ditto no bad wishes.
- The death of either Bill or Hillary Clinton; most likely Bill,
from heart disease. Alternately, we could lose another former president;
Carter or Ford come to mind.
- The fall of the House of Saud (imminent)
- Peace between Israel and the Palestinians. Perhaps just 1st try
and perhaps temporary, but the start of real progress
- Chaos in the Middle East. Looks like the Shi'ites have won the
Iraqi elections, which will lead to unrest in largely-Shi'ite Iran.
Bolstered by the Saudi fall, and the Palestinian issue
- The return to a silver monetary standard in Mexico (re Hugo Salinas).
This could have HUGE ramifications for the US dollar, and could
set the stage for the demise of fiat currencies all over the world.
I believe this will happen anyway.
- Another nuclear bomb OR nuclear power meltdown possible; killing
millions
- Prototypes of non-gasoline powered vehicles, made practical enough
for further development, could really take off, just as hybrid vehicles
have.
- Beginnings of a 3rd political party in the US, as the Democrats
self-destruct and the Republicans become more like the "old"
Democrats
- A pandemic of avian flu
All of these are possible, some more probable than others. You just
never know!
Regards,
- D
-------------
Michael:
Very interesting observations, although some of your 12 year "connections"
were a bit tenuous (I'll give ya the one on John Lennon, even though
he was shot in 1980--not '81....it was December, so I guess that's
close enough to count).
After reading your article, my bones are telling me that we're looking
a Terrible Events Rooster right in the eye. Bush and his Neocon
cabal are prepping us spill blood in new and exciting places in
order to bring Democracy to people suffering under "terrorist
regimes"--but only if those people are also standing over something
we need, like oil. Just ask the poor bastards in Rwanda and the
Sudan--millions have died (and continue to die) under oppressive
regimes in those places, but they barely register a blip on our
Freedom Express radar. Sorry folks--your resources just aren't exploitable
enough for us to give a damn about you.
It's not like we need to go overseas to see misery and oppression,
anyway--we've got plenty to go around right here. Our government
spoon-feeds us misinformation on everything from the number of people
who are unemployed to the CPI index. The true economic condition
of our country is carefully hidden from the masses--and if people
start to catch on, they are quickly distracted with a pre-packaged
"issue-du-jour": Gay Marriage, School Prayer, or some
Flavor of the Month trial (Martha Stewart, Scott Peterson etc etc
etc)...and when all else fails, just run an Amber Alert for a cute
missing kid. Then, while the citizenry is hanging on every salacious
word from the Michael Jackson trial, the government will take care
of dismantling their Social Security benefits--it'll be a done deal
before the majority of people can bat an eye!
It all makes you wonder...is this what the fall of Rome was like?
Enjoy your Bread and Circus, 'cause the party's almost over, folks!
Kind regards,
C.S.
p.s.: Just out of curiosity, I clicked the hyperlink for the Dead
Cat Bounce in your last article--that was hysterical!
-------------
Mr. Nystrom,
At least 2 of your items are wrong. The abacas and paper invented
by ancient kamites (Egyptians)
-K
-------------
There is a great book entitled "1421
the Year China Discovered the World"
You really have to read this book . It outlines more of the amazing
inventions, and discoveries of the Chinese: Longitude, Latitude,
for instance.
T hey actually discovered much of the world before C Columbus, T
Cook and the
rest. And they traded and maintained good diplomatic relations with
these countries
without the genocide so typical of the european colonisers.
- R.L.
-------------
Dear Sir,
Since I vividly remembered all the publicity surrounding the initial
operation of the Dresden Nuclear Power plant of Commonwealth Edison,
I couldn't quite believe your assertion about Santa Susana. A quick
internet search reveals that which plant was first all depends on
how you look at it. E.g. I found this at: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/three/timeline/
1955
January -- The Atomic Energy Commission announces a cooperative
program between the federal governement and the nuclear power industry
to develop power plants.
July -- Arco, Idaho, with a population of 1,000, is
the first U.S. town powered by nuclear energy. The town's energy
was supplied by an experimental boiling-water reactor called the
Borax III.
November -- An experimental breeder reactor about
50 miles west of Idaho Falls, Idaho, partially melts down during
a test. The cause of the partial meltdown was attributed to operator
error.
1957
July -- The Sodium Reactor Experiment at Santa Susana, California
becomes the first civilian nuclear power unit to go on-line. The
unit continued to generate power until 1966.
September -- President Eisenhower signs the Price-Anderson
Act, which will protect private citizens, public utilities, and
contractors from incurring financial hardship in the event of an
accident at a nuclear power plant.
October -- The Windscale plutonium production reactor
catches fire spreading approximately 20,000 curies of radioactive
iodine across Great Britain and northern Europe.
December -- Shippingport, Pennsylvania is the site
of the first full-scale nuclear power plant in the U.S. The plant
was able to generate 60 megawatts of electricity after reaching
full power 21 days after going on-line.
1959
October -- The first nuclear power plant in the U.S. to be built
without any government funding -- the Dresden 1 Nuclear Power Station
in Illinois -- achieves a self-sustaining nuclear reaction.
So, neither one of us was really correct about which was the first
peaceful use (for power generation).
Best Regards,
G.D.
-------------
Are you not a member of council on foreign relations
or some such evil group? Ibelieve it was charles savoie or some
person who pointed this out.
- I.H.
Editor's response: I am not a member of the CFR,
nor any other evil groups, at least not that I am aware of!
-------------
Hello,
This is a little long, but please stick with it and
you will find that I completely agree that THE BULL IS DEAD!
I agree with the cycles thing, with one cycle being the (approximately
11 year) solar cycle.
Since history is made up not only of natural occurences, but also
of human activites, I think that the history is, and the future
will be, the result of the interaction of the solar cycle and the
human development cycle.
I define the human development cycle in its most fundamental form--the
human birth rate, and by when, in life, each human born reaches
their maximum potential.
I define maximum human potential as those years during their lifetime
during which each human born, earns and spends the most money. Economist
Harry Dent first embraced this concept in the first 50 pages of
his 1992 book, The Great Boom Ahead, and he referred to the phenomenum
as the "Spending Wave." Dent's work determined that the
statistically average human, spends the most in his 44th year of
life, with spending being less both before, and after that age (unfortunately,
Dent, in his old age, has gone batty, and now diminishes the effect
of the spending wave).
The solar/human development cycle goes like this:
The solar cycle influences birth rates. Rates go up during increases
in sunspot activity, and birthrates are retarded during low sunspot
activity. There is a natural, physical cause for this and it is
mediated by changes in the earth's magnetic field, caused by solar
cycle variations in the sun's external magnetic field. These magnetic
changes also affect other human behavior, such as fear and aggressiveness,
but I'll share that only if you are interested.
Birthrates are also influenced by the economic conditions. Birthrates
increase during good economic times and decrease during bad economic
times.
Good economic times happen when there are many 44-year-olds in the
population (lots of people in maximum development--in their peak
spending years). Bad economic times happen when there are few 44-year-olds
in the population (few people in maximum development--in their peak
spending years).
So current birthrates are influenced by the then position in the
solar cycle, and by the birthrates from 44 years earlier (which
reflects the strength of the current economy). Our current economic
conditions are the result of where the sun was in its cycle, and
how many babies were born 44 years ago. This may sound a little
off the wall, but its accuracy is stunning (and the math is dirt
simple).
44 years ago (1961), the bottom dropped out of the birthrate in
the U.S. Therefore, the number of people now in their maximum development
(peak spending years) is declining precipitously from the peak which
occurred in 1999 (44 years after 1955, the year of the highest birthrate
of the baby boomers). Right in line with the theory, the current
birthrate is declining precipitously also.
This does not bode well for our economy for the next 13 years (the
length of time that our birthrates declined 44 earlier). Expect
our economy to continuously contract in size (except for a solar-induced
increase between 2010 and 2012) until 2018.
I don't know what this has to do with roosters, but it is an excellent
explanation for where we are, and where we are headed.
As an aside, the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) averted
a stock market crash (as predicted by the above theory) in January
of this year by imposing a temporary rule, "the trade through
rule," which severly damped the volatility of the markets.
Consider:
In January of 2004, $3 billion of new money entered the markets.
In January of 2005, investors pulled out $29 billion--AND MARKET
PRICES STAYED ESSENTIALLY THE SAME (Dow around 10,500). This rule
essentially makes all stocks part of the national money supply (and
may explain why Greenspan has devalued the dollar).
I don't know how long the SEC can keep the lid on this pressure
cooker, because demographic support of the markets is negative for
the next 6 years. The stock exchanges are dead set against SEC extension
of this "trade through rule," but the SEC hasn't decided
when, or if, they will lift it.
So, you are absolutely correct when you state that THE BULL IS DEAD!
Perhaps a more accurate statement is that THE BULL IS IN AN S.E.C.-INDUCED
COMA AND ON LIFE SUPPORT!
-R.V.
-------------
Hi Michael,
I really liked the article especially in relating the Chinese calendar
to economic cycles. Everything is cyclical as our ancestors in most
ancient societes knew. Unfortunately these ancient wisdoms have
been forgotten by most of us both in the so called Western and Eastern
worlds.
But humanity will remember them again due to the great
rebalancing which is due in the coming years.
I liked the way you conveyed the idea that rationality
and logic are not mutually exclusive from coincidence, fate, destiny
and spirituality. Too often we succumb to the simplistic false dialectic
of either or, black or white, capitalism verse communism, bad hitler
verses good Roosevelt, 'for or against us' theories. Rather than
realising the that there two sides to every coin, there is good
and bad in every person and every society and the interconnectedness
of all things both rational and material and non-material and spiritual.
Anyway, keep up the good work. I have posted it on
www.goldinvestments.org
and www.gold.ie.
Mark O'Byrne
Gold & Silver Investments Limited
-------------
3. Like I said, Thanks
again.
Thank you for the input, and the stimulation. Whatever happens,
always remember that the best things, the most important things
in life are free.
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